BCH-Fibonacci/Wave Analysis-Leading Diagonal-Apex FibMarketWatchによるBITFINEX:BCHUSDの分析

BITFINEX:BCHUSD is forming the apex of the leading diagnoal.

This Idea is to track the price-action coming out of the the leading diagonal.

For Further Analysis see related idea.

Review:
BITFINEX:BCHUSD 7.62% has been in a bear market since reaching an all-time high in December 2017 (273 days ago).

1. Primary Wave Sequence (Green)
-Wave 1: +347.02%
-Wave 3: +899.29%
-Wave 5: +382.22%
- 133 Days
2. Correction Sequence (Yellow)
-A Wave: 5 Waves (Pink) (-84.87%)
-B Wave: 3 Waves (+197.89%)
-C Wave: 5 Waves (Orange) (-77.95%)
-Fib. Extension (5-A-B)

3. Fibonacci Extension: Wave 1 & Wave 2

4. Wave Sequence Price Increase: 2,290.84%
- $215.00/$4,104.30
- 133 Days

5. Wave 2 Price Decrease= 90.06%
- $4,104.30/$407.90
- 273 Days

6. Fibonacci Time Extension: Wave 1/Wave 5 (Yellow)

The Beginning:

Idea: BCH-BREAKOUT-Imminent

The Correction ended at $426.40 with a sharp reflex followed by a Micro-Wave sequence.

The Micro-Wave was a lower degree Wave 1 & Wave 2.

The 3rd Wave extended over 700% of Wave 1 & Wave 2.

The 4th Wave Correction resulted in what Elliot called a 'diagonal triangle'.

There are two main types of diagonal triangles. One is where the two boundaries of the triangle converge and the other where they diverge. The second type is known as Expanding Diagonal Triangles. Irrespective of whether they are converging or expanding diagonal triangles, if they occur in the first wave position, where they are known as ‘leading diagonal triangle’, the internal waves are made up of 5-3-5-3-5 sub waves. If they occur in the fifth wave position, they are known as ‘ending diagonal triangles’ and the internal waves are made up of 3-3-3-3-3 sub waves. For example, in an uptrend, the ending point of the fourth wave diagonal triangle will be near or even above the top of the third wave. Then all of a sudden, when the ‘e’ wave of the triangle is finished, price will break even higher and the fifth wave will race upwards.

The corrective sequence occurred in the Wave A position making it a leading diagonal .
When it occurs in Wave A position, it becomes a leading diagonal triangle, and when it occurs at the Wave C position, it is an ending diagonal triangle.

A diagonal triangle differs from a regular (horizontal) triangle in that it slopes in the direction of the trend. So when the eventual break out happens, the next move will be in the opposite direction.

The third wave traveled a considerable distance in a short space of time, and the diagonal triangle itself appeared sloping in the direction of the major trend which hints that the 5th Wave will extend.

The internal waves of the correction were 5-3-5.

The correction was also complex by having 2 correction sequences of ABCDE.

Instead of breaking higher the move broke down and consolidated further and formed a larger leading diagonal.

The next wave sequence is estimated to last 259 days till July 1st, 2019.

Cheers!

-AB

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Near-Term Target: $800-$730 (30-90 days)
Long-Term Target: $2800 (180 days)

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S5 Target (Yellow)

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Main Question that comes to my mind is do we breakout of the Leading Diagonal Now...

Or Consolidate further into the Apex

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High Probablity of Breaking out...

Elliot Rule...

Wave 3 CANNOT be the Shortest Wave...

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TRADE:

BUY: $475
SELL: $530
BUY: $475

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Trade Targets are NOT exact. The Trade is for Wave B & C.

Wave B should come very close to Terminal Wave 3. Wave C should bottom at Terminal Wave B. I’m

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Wave A Terminal

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Wave B is Always 3 sub-waves

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Here comes the trade...

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Always be on alert for Extensions...

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Correction was not a flat...

Internals of Waves are extremely important...

ZigZag Correction...

Do NOT Sell!

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Time to break the Leading Triangle?

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5 tiny sub-waves in Wave C?

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New Trade: Sell at Wave 5 Terminal

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Check this out...

Next Move looks nuts...

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Next 36 hours the wave sequence will be complete.

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Above: Extending S1

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Should beginning the move momentarily...

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Price-Action Update.

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Excuse above.

Below:

Leading Diagonal

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Smaller leading diagonal within larger leading diagonal

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Almost at the pinnacle of the leading diagonal

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Here is a better view.

Larger Leading Diagonal = Green

Smaller Leading Diagonal = Blue

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Time for Take-off?

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Price-Action update:

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3rd sub-wave of the higher degree 3rd should be starting now.

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Excuse Above...

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Above: Fib Spiral intersect from Cycle Wave A and B

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Marks the end of Cycle Wave Correction

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Or aka Wave C

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STOP

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Price-Action Update:

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We are beginning Sub-Wave 3 of a higher degree 3rd Wave.

A Fibonacci Spiral gap is opening allowing BCH to move higher (marked by the vertical line).

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Fib Time = 3rd Wave Sequence (Approx. 9 days)

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Correction:
2 days for Lower Degree
9 days for Higher Degree

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Lower Degree - Teal
Higher Degree - Green

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Higher Degree:
Wave 3 Target - $606-$650
Wave 5 Target - $735-$800

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Key Levels:

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Above: Nearing the Apex.

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Breakout Imminent!

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Above: Complex Correction: FLAT + ZIGZAG

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Selling should be over or getting close...

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Live updates to make sure I am right about this move

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Target Hit.

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A few more ticks to go...

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$436 is next target

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Gap opening...

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Price-Action looks good.

Analysis Stands.

Stay the course.

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Wave 5 is looking to extend

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Scenario 1 : 5th Wave Extends
Scenario 2 : Correction

STOP can be placed firmly at $430.49 (Coinbase)

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Scenario 2 occurred, no impact on analysis.

Cheers!

-AB

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Correction: ZigZag instead of Flat

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Reminder: Wave 1 can be sloppy...

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Failed Wave

Stop Triggered

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Higher Degree Wave did not fail. The image where I noted where my analysis would failed if the $422 level was crossed.

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Excuse typing errors please on my phone.

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Here is the image with the stops.

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Analysis still stands.

Stay the course.

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Wouldn't be surprised at all if BCH just shoots upwards.

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Above: Higher Degree Wave

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Above: Firm Stop $424.99 (Coinbase) & Retrace levels

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Wave 1 usually extends if it only retraces .236 or .382

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Price-Action is showing a leading Diagonal

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The only formation that can violate Elliot's Wave laws.

Wave 2 can never exceed the start of Wave 1
Wave 4 cannot overlap the price area of Wave 1
Wave 3 Cannot be the shortest impulse Wave

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Breakout should be imminent...

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Lower Degree Wave 5 Extended
Higher Degree Wave 5 SHOULD Extend

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Lower Degree Wave 1 & 2 near completion

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I will be updating throughout the day...

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Wave 3 Target hit.

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Wave 3 Extedning

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Wave 3 Extension imminent.

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It’s amazing, every time BCH tries to rally a seller(s) come in to block. What the...

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Note to Seller(s): You Will Not Win!!!!

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Sellers can only surpress price down for so long...it is NOT definite.

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Extension Failed.

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Wave 4 should terminate near Wave 1 terminal.

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Still expecting an Extended 5th Wave

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1HR View:

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6HR View:

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Price-Action looking very strong...

Is it time for the Big Move?

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Wave 5 is extending...

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Added another spiral for Timing purposes.

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Fib Spiral 1: Wave 3 - Wave 4 = Target for Wave 5

Fib Spiral 2: Wave 5 (Sub-Wave 1) - Wave 4 = Timeline for Wave 5 (Sub-Wave 3) to begin

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Approx. 4 hours till next leg higher.

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Fib Spirals played out exactly...

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The main difference between Wave 3 extensions and Wave 5 extensions is that Wave 5 extensions take longer to complete.

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Next Target- Yellow box

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Hoping this Sequence will break us out of the leading diagonal!

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Reminder: This is Higher Degree Wave 3 beginning

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Higher Degree Wave 1 & 2 (Yellow)

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Elliot Rule: Wave 3 CANNOT be the shortest wave!

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Higher wave near-term targets are Fib Extension level 1 & 1.618

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Reminder: No way to guarantee where extensions end.

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40,000 Feet View (Always Important)

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Please give me a like if you find this analysis to be useful!

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The BIG move imminent...

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Review:

1. Higher Degree Wave 3 Beginning
2. Lower Degree Wave
- Wave 1 - Leading Diagonal (Normal)
- Wave 3 - Passed 1.618 but failed to extend
- Wave 5 - EXTENDING

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Plan to open a new idea as soon as we break this leading diagonal

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Bare Minimum Wave 3 has to reach $606.

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Micro-Wave Sequence complete.

Sell and buy back at Wave 1 Terminal.

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Waves are like Russian Nesting Dolls

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Trade opportunity!

If you do not want to trade the correction, place a firm stop just under the beginning of Wave 1

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Reminder: Wave 2 can retrace up to 100% of Wave 1. The most common retrace is between Sub-Wave 1 Terminal and Sub-Wave 2 Terminal. I have represented this with the Red Fib Spirals.

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Wave 2 Corrections are usually in the ZigZag Formation (5-3-5).

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-1HR View
-Added Ultimate Oscillator: Shows negative divergence

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This is where you would sell...

Watch out for the extensions...

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Price-Action Broke 1.236 Level

Watch 1.382 and 1.618 Next...

Looks like the 5th Wave Extension is not over.

Are the shorts starting to cover?

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Fib Spiral Intersections are Key.

Green Circle shows two Fib Spirals intersecting...

This is how I read Fib Spirals...

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Looks like Major Rally is Straight Ahead...

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$562 level is still pointing out to me...

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Looks like one more move down to between $447 & $444 then get ready for the next leg higher which should be to at least $520.

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Little Trade: Sell Here buy back $445

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Trade Worked Perfect...

Now, Let's go higher!

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Above: S1 & S2

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Fib Extension of S1 & S2

-Added Stop

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Counting Waves is an Art not exact science...

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ZigZag Correction should be ending now...

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Above: Extending Higher Degree Wave 1

Not HIGHEST DEGREE (Still in larger WAVE 3)

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STOP Added

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Price-Action Update and Fib Spirals added to help track/predict Wave Sequence

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1HR View + Next Leg Higher Timeline

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Daily View:

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Here is Wave 2 Bottom.

Now we are going higher...

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Above: Sub-Wave Sequence

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Above:

Added Extension Trigger
Added Wave Sequence

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5th Wave was Normal

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Correction should be ending momentarily...

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Correction was FLAT (3-3-5)

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Prepare for the ‘Big’ move...

These levels will likely not be seen again...

Buy what you can here.

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Will update shortly.

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Wave 1 IS extending!

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Price-Action update

Added Spiral

Forming Leading Diagonal

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Wave 1 extended then pulled back...

Stop Triggered.

Opportunity to pick up more BCH.

Analysis still stands.

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Wave 2 came down in a 3 wave sequence which implies a Flat Correction

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Wave 2 Correction Complete

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6HR View
Added Fib Extension (1&2)

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Wave C needs to complete 5 Sub-Waves in order to be complete.

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Hypothetical Price-Action

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Sub-Wave 4 & 5 will become sub-wave 1 & 2

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Price-Action Update:

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Price-action update: We have completed 5 Sub-Waves

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Added Fib. Extension (S1 & S2)

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Breakout imminent

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Next Move should be large...

Wave 3 beginning now.

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Expect Wave 5 to Extend.

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Updated STOP

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1HR View

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Above: Fib Time of Wave 1

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It's time to break the Leading Diagonal we have been in...

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Excuse above...

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Hypothetical Price-Action

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Looks like this is it...

Back to $500's

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Price Action update:

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10 mins or so left...

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Price Action Update:

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In the 'Gap'

Let's see which way it goes...

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Looks like we are going to have a correction sequence

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Wave A bottomed in 5 Sub-Waves which tells us its a ZigZag correction

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Wave B usually travels back up to the .618 level of Wave A.

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Wave C is always 5 sub-waves and bottoms between the 1 & 1.618 fib. Extension level from waves A & B

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Hypothetical Action

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Correction is not a ZigZag but a FLAT

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Action Update:

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#Slowwalker

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Action update:

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Micro-Wave

Wave 1 is Normal
Wave 3 extended
Wave 5 Normal

Expect higher degree 3 extension

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Correction should ending soon

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Look for correction to end near 1.382/1.618

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Action update:

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This wave (3) should extend

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Fib extension 1 & 2

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Wave 3 should pass 1.618 or $442

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Price Action update:

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Notice all The Fib Spiral Intesections

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Wave is tends to be a sloppy formation

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Action update:

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Above:

Yellow Box: Failed Wave

Now: beginning a new micro-wave formation

*please excuse typing while on my phone.

Stay the course!

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Above:

Teal: Primary Wave - Sub-Wave Sequence
Red: ABC Correction
Orange: Primary Wave 1 & 2

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Above: Hypothetical Action

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We have to be getting close...

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Note the Red Spiral Intersection

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Getting really close to breaking out...

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Tiny Sub Wave 3 beginning

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S1 & S3 we’re near equality

Expect 5th Wave to extend

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Wave 5 broke .618 from Fib Extension 0-3-4 which implies it’s extending. Also, it broke the channel line from Terminal wave 1 and Terminal wave 3

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We are reaching the end of the leading diagonal...

The next move high should begin at any moment...

Micro-Wave Sequence & ABC Correction ending now..

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Correction close to ending

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Price should not go below S1(0)

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Take emotion out and trust the analysis

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Reminder: Its extremely difficult to count 1-3 minute wave sequences. Counting waves is more of an Art than Science. Waves can change and waves can fail. If I do see a change in the formation I will update the idea asap. For example, if I originally said it’s a ZigZag Correction but it’s actually a Flat correction I will update the idea to notify the change in the price-action.

Just wanted to let this be known and it is the main reason why I provide so many price-action updates.

Stay the course...we are getting close to the finish line!

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S1(0) held and just quickly looking at the action it looks like we have a Micro-Wave formation.

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You could place a STOP near S1(0)

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My stop is at $424.89

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Perfect Example of a Sloppy Wave 1 Formation...

The less volume the sloppier the wave formations of any given security.

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Expecting BCH to takeoff anytime...

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Here ya go...

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Analysis is about to be proven correct...

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Ye o little faith...

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Last chance to load up on BCH!

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If I don’t post a comment with a chart update I’m just showing the price-action and making sure it is still ‘following’ or ‘riding’ a spiral.

Nothing more and nothing less...

I would notify with comment if there was a change in the analysis.

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Looking good...

Watch 1.618 Level

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$476.90

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Add Fib Extension to Sub-Wave 1 & 2

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Review

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Add Fib Time and Fib Extension to Higher Degree Primary Wave

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Add Fib Extension to Sub-Micro Wave 1 & 2

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See the Leading Diagonal?

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Beautiful Chart Above...

Fibonacci and Wave Theory

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Wave Internals (Sub-Waves) are Key.

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Time Estimate for Sub-Wave 3 to begin. I expect we consolidate side ways for a few more hours.

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Add Fib Spirals to Sub-Waves

Added Scenarios

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Looks like the Green Arrow Scenario is going to play out.

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Sub-Wave Sequence Complete

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Sub-Wave decided to further retrace.

No change in analysis.

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Pretty good time estimate.

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Ignore stop above.

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Sub-Wave 3 was Normal

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Who dumped 5,000 BCH?

Stench of Manipulation...

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Higher Degreee has not completely failed...

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IF we go below 407.65, analysis will fail...

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Wave 2 CANNOT go below the price area of Wave 1.

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Original Analysis

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If Wave Theory is correct we should be ok...

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Just double checked the Wave counts.

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Fib Time 5 marks the end of a Wave Sequence (1-5 Waves + ABC Correction).

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Found the Error...

I messed up the ABC Correction...

Corrected below:

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ZigZag (5-3-5) instead of Flat (3-3-5)

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Analysis Stands

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I think it is safe to say we are at the Apex.

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Above: Log Format

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It should be getting close to time to tell whether this idea will be proven correct or fail.

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BCH/BTC HAS BOTTOMED! Been over the analysis many times....we can only go higher...

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Corrected the Wave Count...

Wave 1 Extended
Wave 3 Normal
Wave 5 Normal

Expect higher degree Wave 1 To extend...

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For those interested in my Fib Theory...

Here is a test of it...

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Wave 3 of this Sequence will hit $440 if the theory stands...

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BCH/BTC will sooner or later be like a rocket launch

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Should be going higher in approx. 9 mins...

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Spiral Targets

Maybe Tradable

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Orange Spiral is Terminal Wave 3 (Wave 1 Terminal to Wave 1 Beginning)

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2.618 is a level that keeps appearing in my analysis...

Likely level for Terminal Wave 3

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Pink Sequence - Hypothetical Action

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Bigger picture...

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Do or die time!

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Will this analysis fail or be right...

Just tell me!

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Fib Spiral Theory Test

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Just to know that I'm not placing the Fib Spiral randomly. Above is the Wave count as I see it.

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Better view of wave sequence

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Wave 3 Terminal: $440-438

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Higher Degree Wave 2 completely finished.

Higher Degree Wave 3 is beginning...

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Reminder:

Highest Wave:

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Higher Degree Target:$6500

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Now the goal is to get rich along the way and trade the Sub-Waves to Higher Degree 3rd Terminal then Sell into the 4th Wave.

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Heavy hitters on deck

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Wait for it...

Batters on deck...

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Coinbase chart

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Heavy Hitters...

The Rush...

Climax...

Everyone thought it was going lower...

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New idea coming soon...

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Strong MACD crossover

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Breakout imminent...

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Wall Street money incoming...

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Wave 3 was Normal.

Expect extended 5th.

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Added Fib Extension 0-3-4

1.618 Target

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Wave Failed....

Don't Panic...

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This will start a Wave Sequence

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Upside Down ABC Correction

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Only used 'ABC' because there is no other '123' Sequence

Correction: 3-3-5

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Ahh so close....

Hurry up BCH!

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I spoke a little soon when I said BCH Cycle Wave 2 was completely finished...

It's ALMOST!

Need this Last C Wave which will turn into a Wave Sequence.

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