Brent Crude Oilショート
Geopolitics Current Dictate Brent Crude Oil Price Predictions
Crude oil prices are still trading lower on the day, despite a shortfall in US crude oil stocks this Wednesday. Brent crude oil price predictions remain unchanged from the bearish stance after the Energy Information Administration said that US crude oil inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels
in the week ended 13 May 2022. This was a steep drop from the surplus of 8.5m barrels seen a week earlier and was also a sharper-than-expected drop from the 2.5m barrels surplus predicted by analysts.
Geopolitics remains the driving force behind Brent crude oil price predictions this Wednesday. As Commerzbank analysts noted in their investment reports, the shelving of any proposed ban on Russian oil imports by the EU has proven to be a much more powerful overriding force than reports of China’s easing of lockdowns and potential demand recovery. Reports that the US is considering easing sanctions on Venezuela is also pressurizing oil prices.
Crude Inventory Data Shows Draw of 3.4 Million Barrels Last Week
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending May 13, 2022
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.9 million barrels per day during the week ending May 13, 2022 which was 239,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 91.8% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.6 million barrels per day last week, up by 299,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.3 million barrels per day, 4.7% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 876,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 114,000 barrels per day.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 420.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 14% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.8 million barrels last week and are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week and are about 22% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels last week and are about 10% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 2.9 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.5 million barrels a day, up by 1.7% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels a day, down by 1.2% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 6.7% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 28.6% compared with the same four-week period last year.
The 2.31% drop in Brent crude this Wednesday follows Tuesday’s 1.03% fall. A stronger dollar is also putting the brakes on commodity prices. Brent crude is approaching a key support at $109.58. How will this affect Brent crude oil price predictions as we advance?
Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction
Wednesday’s decline has made the 109.58 support vulnerable. A breakdown of this support allows the bears to aim for the 106.11 support (9 March and 12 May lows). If there is further price deterioration, the 97.40 support level (28 February and 16 March lows) comes into the picture. If the decline continues unabated, additional support is seen at 91.32 (11/17 February lows).
On the flip side, a bounce on 109.58 allows for a retest of the 114.03 resistance (5/16 May highs). The 24 March high at 123.61 re-enters the picture if the bulls uncap the 114.03 resistance. The bulls’ additional harvest points reside at 131.86 (9 March high) and at 138.10 (7 March high).
Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction: Stuck At A Crucial Support
Brent crude oil price has fallen to an important support as investors focus on the ongoing lockdown in China and OPEC+ intrigues. The benchmark is trading at $104.83, which is significantly lower than its year-to-date high of $138.10. Meanwhile, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has moved to $102.15, which is also lower than this year’s high of $129.50. So, what next for oil prices?
There are several catalysts moving crude oil prices. First, there is the ongoing debate in Europe about banning Russian crude oil. While most countries are supportive of the measure, some like Hungary and Czech Republic have warned about the impacts to their economies. A complete ban would have a significant impact on oil markets since Europe buys most of the Russian oil. However, analysts believe that Russia would find other buyers like China and India.
Oil prices are also reacting to the latest figures from OPEC. Official data showed that OPEC production rose by 70,000 barrels per day. Oil production in Russia declined by 900k barrels per day as the country produced 9.4 million barrels per day. In its quota, the country is required to produce 10.44 million barrels.As a result, according to S&P, the spread between OPEC+ production and quotas rose to a record high.
Other OPEC countries are also facing challenges with production. For example, in Libya, factions blockaded key ports and oil fields. Nigeria is also seeing significant logistics issues while Kazakhstan’s output fell by 220k barrels per day.
Crude oil price prediction
Crude oil has been a bit volatile in the past few weeks. On the daily chart, the price remains slightly above the ascending trendline that is shown in green. This is a sign that sellers are getting a bit afraid of moving below the support at $100. Oil is also between the lower and middle line of the Bollinger Bands. The True Strength Indicator has moved to the neutral point.
Therefore, there is a possibility that the crude oil price will remain in this range for a while. Besides, it has formed a triangle pattern, which is not close to its confluence level, The key support and resistance to watch will be at $100 and $110.
Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction: Geopolitics And China Dictate Prices
Bullish Brent crude oil price predictions have hit the market after Germany dropped its opposition to an embargo on Russian oil imports. The crude oil benchmark rose 2.06% on Thursday as a result, as the move paves the way for a potential vote to embargo Russian oil, cutting off a significant chunk of supply from the market.
Reports say that Germany will no longer oppose an EU resolution to ban the importation of Russian oil and energy products. However, any embargoes remain some way off, as the German statement only reflects Berlin’s public wishes to wean itself off Russian oil.
While the news put Brent crude on bid, the upside move was limited as lockdowns in Shanghai continue to cut demand for crude oil. Plans to start mass testing in Beijing and other cities across China may spark new lockdown fears, leading to a further reduction in demand from the world’s largest crude oil importer. Demand from China is already said to be down by 1 million barrels per day.
A slight increase in crude oil stocks also limits the rise in oil prices. The latest consignment of the Energy Information Administration’s weekly report indicates that inventories rose by 691,000 barrels in the week under focus, up from a shortfall of 8 million barrels recorded previously. The rapidly evolving situation on the geopolitical front keeps Brent crude oil price predictions on the volatile side.
Brent Crude Oil Price Outlook
The active daily candle has breached the 106.11 resistance (9 March low, 1 April high) by the required 3% closing penetration above this barrier. This confirms the breakout and opens the door for the bulls to challenge the resistance at 109.58. The trendline that connects the price peaks from early March to date add another resistance layer.
If the bulls uncap this barrier, the door swings open for a push towards 114.03 (11 March and 19 April highs). Above this level, 123.61 (24 March high) forms an additional barrier to the north, with the 120.00 psychological price area forming a potential pitstop. This outlook would invalidate the evolving descending triangle.
On the other hand, rejection at 109.58 retains the integrity of the triangle, with the potential for a downside move that targets 106.11 initially. 103.11 (27 April low) is another pivot waiting in the wings if the bulls fail to support the 106.11 support. The 97.40 price mark (28 February and 16 March lows) forms the triangle’s lower border.
The descending triangle’s expected outcome is fulfilled if the bears take this border out. This scenario also clears the pathway to a measured move that targets 80.22 (5 November 2021 and 6 January 2022 lows). Before then, additional downside barriers are seen at 91.32 (11 February low), 86.72 (25 January low) and 85.32 (10 November 2021 high and 24 January 2022 low).
in the week ended 13 May 2022. This was a steep drop from the surplus of 8.5m barrels seen a week earlier and was also a sharper-than-expected drop from the 2.5m barrels surplus predicted by analysts.
Geopolitics remains the driving force behind Brent crude oil price predictions this Wednesday. As Commerzbank analysts noted in their investment reports, the shelving of any proposed ban on Russian oil imports by the EU has proven to be a much more powerful overriding force than reports of China’s easing of lockdowns and potential demand recovery. Reports that the US is considering easing sanctions on Venezuela is also pressurizing oil prices.
Crude Inventory Data Shows Draw of 3.4 Million Barrels Last Week
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending May 13, 2022
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.9 million barrels per day during the week ending May 13, 2022 which was 239,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 91.8% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.6 million barrels per day last week, up by 299,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.3 million barrels per day, 4.7% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 876,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 114,000 barrels per day.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 420.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 14% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.8 million barrels last week and are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week and are about 22% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels last week and are about 10% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 2.9 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.5 million barrels a day, up by 1.7% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels a day, down by 1.2% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 6.7% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 28.6% compared with the same four-week period last year.
The 2.31% drop in Brent crude this Wednesday follows Tuesday’s 1.03% fall. A stronger dollar is also putting the brakes on commodity prices. Brent crude is approaching a key support at $109.58. How will this affect Brent crude oil price predictions as we advance?
Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction
Wednesday’s decline has made the 109.58 support vulnerable. A breakdown of this support allows the bears to aim for the 106.11 support (9 March and 12 May lows). If there is further price deterioration, the 97.40 support level (28 February and 16 March lows) comes into the picture. If the decline continues unabated, additional support is seen at 91.32 (11/17 February lows).
On the flip side, a bounce on 109.58 allows for a retest of the 114.03 resistance (5/16 May highs). The 24 March high at 123.61 re-enters the picture if the bulls uncap the 114.03 resistance. The bulls’ additional harvest points reside at 131.86 (9 March high) and at 138.10 (7 March high).
Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction: Stuck At A Crucial Support
Brent crude oil price has fallen to an important support as investors focus on the ongoing lockdown in China and OPEC+ intrigues. The benchmark is trading at $104.83, which is significantly lower than its year-to-date high of $138.10. Meanwhile, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has moved to $102.15, which is also lower than this year’s high of $129.50. So, what next for oil prices?
There are several catalysts moving crude oil prices. First, there is the ongoing debate in Europe about banning Russian crude oil. While most countries are supportive of the measure, some like Hungary and Czech Republic have warned about the impacts to their economies. A complete ban would have a significant impact on oil markets since Europe buys most of the Russian oil. However, analysts believe that Russia would find other buyers like China and India.
Oil prices are also reacting to the latest figures from OPEC. Official data showed that OPEC production rose by 70,000 barrels per day. Oil production in Russia declined by 900k barrels per day as the country produced 9.4 million barrels per day. In its quota, the country is required to produce 10.44 million barrels.As a result, according to S&P, the spread between OPEC+ production and quotas rose to a record high.
Other OPEC countries are also facing challenges with production. For example, in Libya, factions blockaded key ports and oil fields. Nigeria is also seeing significant logistics issues while Kazakhstan’s output fell by 220k barrels per day.
Crude oil price prediction
Crude oil has been a bit volatile in the past few weeks. On the daily chart, the price remains slightly above the ascending trendline that is shown in green. This is a sign that sellers are getting a bit afraid of moving below the support at $100. Oil is also between the lower and middle line of the Bollinger Bands. The True Strength Indicator has moved to the neutral point.
Therefore, there is a possibility that the crude oil price will remain in this range for a while. Besides, it has formed a triangle pattern, which is not close to its confluence level, The key support and resistance to watch will be at $100 and $110.
Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction: Geopolitics And China Dictate Prices
Bullish Brent crude oil price predictions have hit the market after Germany dropped its opposition to an embargo on Russian oil imports. The crude oil benchmark rose 2.06% on Thursday as a result, as the move paves the way for a potential vote to embargo Russian oil, cutting off a significant chunk of supply from the market.
Reports say that Germany will no longer oppose an EU resolution to ban the importation of Russian oil and energy products. However, any embargoes remain some way off, as the German statement only reflects Berlin’s public wishes to wean itself off Russian oil.
While the news put Brent crude on bid, the upside move was limited as lockdowns in Shanghai continue to cut demand for crude oil. Plans to start mass testing in Beijing and other cities across China may spark new lockdown fears, leading to a further reduction in demand from the world’s largest crude oil importer. Demand from China is already said to be down by 1 million barrels per day.
A slight increase in crude oil stocks also limits the rise in oil prices. The latest consignment of the Energy Information Administration’s weekly report indicates that inventories rose by 691,000 barrels in the week under focus, up from a shortfall of 8 million barrels recorded previously. The rapidly evolving situation on the geopolitical front keeps Brent crude oil price predictions on the volatile side.
Brent Crude Oil Price Outlook
The active daily candle has breached the 106.11 resistance (9 March low, 1 April high) by the required 3% closing penetration above this barrier. This confirms the breakout and opens the door for the bulls to challenge the resistance at 109.58. The trendline that connects the price peaks from early March to date add another resistance layer.
If the bulls uncap this barrier, the door swings open for a push towards 114.03 (11 March and 19 April highs). Above this level, 123.61 (24 March high) forms an additional barrier to the north, with the 120.00 psychological price area forming a potential pitstop. This outlook would invalidate the evolving descending triangle.
On the other hand, rejection at 109.58 retains the integrity of the triangle, with the potential for a downside move that targets 106.11 initially. 103.11 (27 April low) is another pivot waiting in the wings if the bulls fail to support the 106.11 support. The 97.40 price mark (28 February and 16 March lows) forms the triangle’s lower border.
The descending triangle’s expected outcome is fulfilled if the bears take this border out. This scenario also clears the pathway to a measured move that targets 80.22 (5 November 2021 and 6 January 2022 lows). Before then, additional downside barriers are seen at 91.32 (11 February low), 86.72 (25 January low) and 85.32 (10 November 2021 high and 24 January 2022 low).
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