The support depends on how you like to draw your curves
アップデート済
BTC unfortunately is not an exact science. There are multiple supports which all seem valid, depending on whoch starting point you choose back in 2010, and what curvature you take.
The result is quite different, some curves are in line with the previous top area at 1200, others are too high for that.
Therefore I would tend to speak more of a support area which stretches from 1200 to 2500. Only afterwards will we have another data point to improve our fit.
In physics, to do some meaningful fits, you need huge amounts of data.
In the end, we would like to have a very high confidence level of 5sigma, to make some meaningful scientific statement.
We cannot do that in BTC, because data points are rare. The sigma will increase over time, as more data points will join the fit.
For now, we have to just say that: BTC will probably visit an area of 1700 plusminus 500. Huge margin of error.
This is just to show that the data still allows to play around and tweak the lines to fit the narrative of the respective idea :)
The result is quite different, some curves are in line with the previous top area at 1200, others are too high for that.
Therefore I would tend to speak more of a support area which stretches from 1200 to 2500. Only afterwards will we have another data point to improve our fit.
In physics, to do some meaningful fits, you need huge amounts of data.
In the end, we would like to have a very high confidence level of 5sigma, to make some meaningful scientific statement.
We cannot do that in BTC, because data points are rare. The sigma will increase over time, as more data points will join the fit.
For now, we have to just say that: BTC will probably visit an area of 1700 plusminus 500. Huge margin of error.
This is just to show that the data still allows to play around and tweak the lines to fit the narrative of the respective idea :)
ノート
Ok, so, let's take a look at where we are now, the dump came, and we made a slightly lower low, now it's kinda hanging in there, in a weird way. It normally should go below the weekly MA200 like in 2015, and bounce back very aggressively. We didn't have that aggressive bounce yet, and as long as we don't have it, I think we are continuing further down. The low for this dump here probably is around 2900:That'S how I see it, when comparing to the two extreme lows in 2015.
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