A Potentially Life-Changing Opportunity Most People Will Miss

2022年5月10日

Today I'm going to address my perspective on Bitcoin. I see this as a potentially life-changing opportunity for a lot of people, but I also understand that many people will simply overlook this opportunity. I'll talk about the overall macro structure of what I'm seeing for Bitcoin's cycle, the force behind this bearish price action, and the most logical and reasonable approach to the market.

This post is not financial advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only.

Macro-Cycle Chart
- Above is the macro cycle chart for bitcoin that I have been referring to for almost a year now.
- I've explained this in multiple other posts, but just to reiterate some of the key points: Bitcoin demonstrates diminishing returns and extended cycles due to its tokeneconomics supply structure.
- After the halving event takes place, it takes longer and longer for Bitcoin to reach its cycle peak, as demonstrated in the case of 2012 and 2016.
- We can also use the fibonacci retracement tool to understand key support and resistance zones.
- The 1.618 fibonacci level first acts as support, before Bitcoin marks the cycle top at the 2.272 fibonacci level.
- After the cycle ends, it then acts as support, and the price forms a bottom near those levels, where smart money accumulated before the beginning of the next rally.
- Applying the same logic to the chart we see today, we have only tested the 1.618 fibonacci level, and are yet to test the 2.272 fibonacci level.
- From an elliott wave perspective, I think that one last impulse wave is still a probable structure, despite how dire the situation is.

Driver Behind Bearish Price Action
- So what's causing Bitcoin to crash so hard?
- Recently, bitcoin has been heavily paired to the equities market, which has been hit with the sentiment of fear regarding rate hikes.
- Additionally, the Terra ecosystem's crash offered an appealing arbitrage opportunity for traders, incentivizing them to sell, which led to a market crash.
- It's important to understand that sentiment is the key driver behind this price action.
- Fed rate hikes, contrary to popular opinion, does not have a direct impact in the financial markets (click on the post below)

My Thoughts on the Best Course of Action
- Personally, I believe selling (or cutting losses for most) at these levels is the most imprudent move one can make.
- Have the fundamentals changed? Is Bitcoin not what we used to know anymore? Has the network been hijacked to create more than 21m in supply?
- If the answer to the question above is 'no', the investment thesis shouldn't change.
- I think 30k is a very appealing region of interest, and I continue to accumulate at these levels.
- On a personal level, this gives me vibes of when Bitcoin was at 9k, and Ethereum at $350.

Conclusion
Eventually people will do what they feel like doing, so I really have no intentions of convincing anyone to buy Bitcoin. But before you press that short button, take a minute to think about exactly why it is that you're shorting. What makes you bearish on the most innovative invention of the 21st century? The simple fact that prices have gone down significantly? I'm looking forward to the next 3-5 years in the crypto space and making decisions today based on it. I'm either overlooking a simple fact that most people (except myself) are aware of, or I'm possibly on a path to making generational wealth. I think I'm leaning more towards the latter. Regardless, I hope this post helps you in adjusting your view of the market to be more objective, so that you can make better decisions today for your well-being in the next few years.

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