Bitcoin’s MOST IMPORTANT PATTERN for Trading in 2023-2024

2023年9月11日Key Findings

- The best time to buy Bitcoin has historically been prior to the Bitcoin halving.
- There has been a Bitcoin bottom and a second chance buy opportunity in each Bitcoin cycle.
- In the 2016 Bitcoin cycle, Bitcoin received widespread global adoption that led to the first bear market rally, market manipulation by the US Federal Reserve, and the development of a time cycle.


Since price is so heavily manipulated, investors turn to the second best variable that they have to work with, which is time. We start to notice an interesting time cycle:

(1) 74+ week bull run
- In 2016 there was a 74-week bull run where the parabolic curve broke 74 weeks after the BTC halving date.
- In 2020, the Federal Reserve was heavily manipulating the markets by turning on their money printers.
- 50% of the global US dollar supply was printed since the COVID crash and BTC’s parabolic curve broke 45 weeks in.
- However, smart investors know that the past bull run lasted 74 weeks and so much more US dollars are in circulation so the bull run shouldn’t run out of steam yet.
- As a result, BTC formed a double peak for the first time with so much money being printed and heavily manipulating the markets upward.
- This rally lasted 78 weeks with an attempted selloff at week 75 and 3 weeks of bullishness afterwards (forming a bull trap for those who believed in the Bitcoin to 100k narrative).
- It is important to point out that this 2020 cycle bull run lasted just a few weeks longer than the previous 74-week cycle with an attempt to selloff just 1 week after the previous 74-week bull run cycle.

The US federal government also manipulated Bitcoin’s price on the way down through contractionary fiscal policies.

(2) 51-week market correction
- In 2016 and 2020, there was a 51-week correction from the peak of the Bitcoin bull run rally to the Bitcoin bottom in the bear market.

(3) 9 weeks of bottoming out near the Bitcoin bottom
- In 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin took exactly 9 weeks to bottom out near the Bitcoin bottom before taking off during the bear market rally.
(4) 36-week bear market rally
- In 2016, Bitcoin had its first Bitcoin bear market rally that lasted exactly 36 weeks before Bitcoin started declining.
- In the current 2020 cycle Bitcoin had a 36-week bear market rally that just ended on the week of July 17, 2023.
- Near the end of both bear market rallies there were several weeks of sideways price movement near the resistance level before Bitcoin finally dropped.


What is next?

(5) Sideways and slightly bearish price action in the accumulation range
- In the Bitcoin webinar, published in July of 2023, I gave my prediction that Bitcoin will move sideways with slightly bearish price action within the accumulation range between 22k and 31.8k.
- This prediction has been accurate so far with sideways and slightly bearish price action.
- I see two potential trade opportunities on the horizon with a BTC long opportunity around $22-23k if there is excessive selloff.

(6) Second chance buy opportunity 9 weeks before the BTC halving date.
- In the 2016 cycle there was a second chance buy opportunity 9 weeks before the Bitcoin halving date.
- I’m anticipating that the time cycle continues with a second chance buy opportunity between 19.2k and 22k just 9 weeks before the Apr. 2024 BTC halving date with an estimated date of February 19, 2024.
- In the Bitcoin webinar I made two errors that resulted in the wrong date (I placed the BTC halving date on Apr. 1 instead of Apr. 26 and I incorrectly counted 10 weeks instead of 9 weeks before the BTC halving date. February 19, 2024 is the correct target date.


(7) Market Crash Strategy:
I discuss my strategy for trading the market crash in the Looming Market Crash webinar.