Bitcoin - Complete Cycle Analysis from Genesis

2018年9月15日

BTC is currently in the wave 4 corrective monthly trend. The last correction we had of this degree was back in 2014 and 2015 after the Mt Gox hack.
The first impulsive leg from the beginning at $0 to $1220.32 on Nov '13 lasted 1219 days in total. Following which there was major 486 days of correction forming the cycle level wave 2.
Then next impulsive move started from Feb 2015 (S153) to Dec 2017 ($19710) lasted 1065 days. Leading us into current corrective trend that we are presently in for the past 274 days.
I would expect this phase to last in total to around atleast 450-500 days range since wave 4 corrections are usually more complex and time consuming compared to wave 2 corrections. This is just rough estimation on how long this could possibly gone for atleast, it can definitely take even longer complete.
I don't expect any new impulsive move on the monthly before the spring of 2019 in the crypto market.

2018年9月15日

ノート

Wave 1 - Mt Gox wave

This was a leading first wave diagonal which ended with an overshoot in the wave 5.
Leading wave diagonals are very commonly seen when the price rises aggressively in very short span of time.
They can have 3-3-3-3-3 wave structure like in this case (made of wxy combos) or have a 5-3-5-3-5 wave structure.



Leading diagonals usually have an explosive breakdown and tend to retrace very deeply very much like the bear market of 2014 and 2015 in the Bitcoin's history.

2018年9月15日

ノート

Wave 2 - Mt Gox hack correction.

This was a complex double zig zag WXY correction.
BTC had two capitulations. First one was very quick and fast one occurred in the beginning as the W wave followed by a corrective 3 wave uptrend and then a second slower capitulation making the Y leg.

2018年9月25日

ノート

Wave 3 -
This wave has been quite unusual given its length.
Pretty sure this was pure manipulation to make it reach those highs.
From technical perspective, this how I see it.