Bitcoin Preparing for a Big Move, Part 3

アップデート済

Things are slowly turning towards the bullish side now, but we are not there yet though. Still want to see a break of the 6500 level before being back in the safe zone again. I made this chart earlier today before the rally trying to show the important levels for Bitcoin'. The first one for the bulls broke earlier today ( the blue triangle trend line ) and the 6380/6400 horizontal resistance level. But if we don't break the 6500 with conviction i will still remain a bit cautious. I want to see a big strong volume break of this level with a push way above it. So a rally that would go to at least 6600 to say the bulls are in favor again.

A very important note, it's really starting to look like the manipulation is out of the market, at least for now. Everything moves in slow motion but it's moving in a more normal natural way lately. No sudden spikes up and back down again or the other way around. As i mentioned in my last few updates as well, looks like the big manipulators are not in the market at the moment. Think the low volume is not interesting for them at the moment maybe? I don't know and to be honest, i don't care at the moment :). Have done enough lately trying to figure out what the whales are up to. I spotted several nice trades while doing that but it has been costing so much time and energy AND sometimes it's useless. The last time i spotted something was during the fake drop to 6200 and the push up by the Bitmex bulls. That's why me and my members went long at 6300, so this time it was worth it :).

Alts coins are looking good at the moment, some have already broken important resistance levels but most are still in the long term bear zone. So still not in the clear yet on that side.
Volume in Bitcoin' and alts is still on the low side but as you can see in the chart, it might happen during the 6500ish break. I can accept that volume in general is lower nowadays but i really want to see a significant increase when looking at the average volume of the past month. Depending on how strong the break of 6500 will be (if it happens) i think we will move towards the 6800 and maybe even the 7000. The 6800ish will be a tough one to crack, but if the bulls can manage to do that i expect a move towards the 7000 before a correction down happens again to test support levels around 6600/6800. All this is looking ahead too much at the moment and i rather look at things as they develop. But for now, things look good and stable, as long as the bulls can hold the 6400/6380, it should just be a matter of time until the 6500 breaks.

Tether has dropped once again, even though we got confirmation from Tether a few days ago that everything is all good. Overal Tether price has dropped to 0.96/0.97 but when looking at the Bitcoin price of the Tether exchanges, the difference is less than 1%. Like they are following the Tether price at Kraken. It's all very strange and unclear so i choose to ignore it for now. Need to figure out what is really going on here.

Summary:
- Objective view gives momentum to the bulls at the moment with the 6380ish being an important level for that momentum. A break of 6500ish will confirm the higher low on the daily which will be a buy/bullish signal.
- Bigger picture view, if 6500 breaks i want to see a good strong rally towards the 6900/7000 at least. If that happens a retest of 6500/6800 would be completely normal and healthy. A break of 6800 would be a small step to break the 'lower high' trend of 2018, but the real break of this trend will be if the 7400 gets taken out by the bulls. That could mean the down trend of 2018 MIGHT be over. The 10K is an even more important level but the key level is still the 13K for me. This is the level i have been preaching about since January this year.
- My personal expectation is the same as in my previous analysis, a cautious bullish mid-term view, but the price needs to stay above the 6350/6400. A solid break of 6500 will make me a bull.

Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)

Previous analysis: Don't forget to read them if you want to be up to date on all the info i give.

Bitcoin Preparing for a Big Move, Part 2

ノート

Sorry guys, i just noticed the chart did not work out as it should. The one on the left should not be there, so ignore that one for now.

ノート

Short on finex are still dropping, confirming what i have been saying the past days, some people probably think the market is going up soon so they are closing their short positions already. But what i want still want to see is, the longs increasing. Maybe that triangle there can work out.

ノート

Still looking good and the bulls are giving it another shot to break up. The gap between the Tether exchanges and the USD is getting small as we speak which is a good sign as well. Maybe it's a bit too soon for an attack on the 6500ish. Nothing wrong if it would take another 4/8 hours. Assuming this is how things go from now on as mentioned in my previous analysis.

For Bitfinex we want to see that previous red resistance function as a support now and that the current move becomes a triangle instead of a flag. On the USD exchange it could move inside a bull flag.

Open shorts are still dropping and open longs al increasing as well, but very slowly.

ノート

All of a sudden alts are taking some hits, not showing the stable slow correction i would expect to happen after the rallies we have had the past days.
Nothing big yet, but not really liking this though. I was expecting corrections as i mentioned in a few Alts analysis i just posted, but not like this. All this while Bitcoin has only dropped 15/20 points

ノート

Seems the alt coins have already shown the worst of it when i posted the previous update. Bitcoin is also still moving sideways as suspected so not exiting on that side as well. Seems like we have a channel there at the moment as well, when looking at Bitfinex.
As long as Bitcoin (Bitstamp price) stays above the 6380ish, the bulls should be okay. The 4/8 hours i mentioned earlier are almost over so we want to see a move up again soon for things to stay intact.

ノート

The green support zone got tested but so far no bounce up. Also not a dump happening as well. This actually shows what i have been saying lately, it looks like the market has changed a bit. Finex chart gives room towards the 6400 (test of the channel) but look on the left chart, would be best to stay above the green zone (former resistance level). Alts are still okay, better shape than yesterday, even though we have dropped more. This could take a while until we move up again. Still give the bulls a good chance here, but want to see support levels to hold though.

ノート

Alt coins have improved a lot today. I have not seen this positive sentiment in a very long time. When Alts stay this stable during a sideways movement of Bitcoin. Are times changing again or is it a blank? Bitcoin dropped a bit from the high but still stable.