Bitcoin Bear Flag still in play

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A few hours ago i update in my channel:

Some confusing days the past days, not easy to say what the short term would do. Well that's clear now, only thing i can think of, is that bul flag on the left. It's target is very wide, could be 6100, could be 6500. So think we can say we are in the middle of it now. At the moment no sign of weakness yet, but what i do see, OI is still at the same level as at the 5K, which is very low here. So i don't feel as if there was any accumulation. Having that said, would not make a lot of sense to think yet that THE low is set. So to me it still makes more sense to think this is still just that Bear flag on the right.

This leg already got extended a bit, thought 6100/200 would be better if it would play out. Almost reached 6400 now. So would say, 6500ish would be the max. Getting above 6800, i will prob say i was completely wrong about still being bearish.

Have to say, markets are not easy now with everything that is going on. Currencies are making extreme moves, actually showing the panic all over the world.

In theory, open intrest could build up higher prices as well. Would fit the picture of the panic in the world now. But I don’t remember having seen that with bitcoin past 2 years. Seeing OI build up after a 50% increase of price. Or when not assuming 4K as the low, but 5k, still 30%.

Order books are thinner now with the big pro’s not being around, also explains the extreme volatility past days. So the ones that are left, it’s easier to move price to where they want. So making things bit more difficult.

Like that bull flag, now I knows it’s one, but few hours ago it just wasn’t clear to me. We also need to assume, at least I do, because many have left the market (I assume the big pros), some of the signs we were just to seeing, are prob different now as well. For example, we might not see those ugly Bart moves anymore because they left

Now a few hours have passed and things still look pretty decent for the bulls. No big volume rejection so far. For this bear flag to be real, normally it should hang too long around these highs. Where i also think that 5800/5900 is a big support zone, should mean for the bear flag to be in play, that level needs to break withing 6/12 hours. For now, 6100ish is a level as well now, had a few bounces there, that level should break even sooner.

Open intrest has dropped even more (all small numbers though), but maybe more important, it has not increased at all, thats for sure. As mentioned above, don't remember seeing a big rally, without having seen some accumulation at the lows prior to it. So for me, below 6400/500, i will remain bearish, not just because of TA, but simply of what is going on in the world AND because i still think that many of the pro's have left the market. So i wonder, if that volume is gone, who will be buying the monthly bitcoin that get sold by for example the miners.

Anyway, don't want to say much more, also because short term predictions are very though now. So going to keep it simple for myself, 6400/500 should hold, 6800 will prob change my mind completely. If that happens, it will be the first big low that i have missed past 2 years, well so be it :).

Previous analysis:

ノート

Looks like we have a neckline here around 6100. Shape of an H&S, but these can be traps after such a big rally, so it could form a bull flag (if so, my bearish view will be in a lot of danger).

ノート

Have to say, still pretty stable. Broke that trend line on the right, but no reaction at all, which is a sign of strength.

As you know, i am not an EW guy, but i do look at the basics sometimes. I assume, the EW people, are prob assuming this. The ig ABC correction that started since the 20K. If that is so, we should we in the last wave down. Now i don't know all the rules, but normally it should NOT break that red zone anymore. It's a pretty basic rule as far as i know. But even when putting EW aside, that zone is ALWAYS a very big resistance.

Shorting here, is normally a slam dunk. The dump we had a week ago was so hard and so fast and with so much volume, making it an impulse wave. The rule then is, that red zone can not break anymore.

Only reason why i am not following those rules blindly this time, is because we are in extreme times here. Not just with Bitcoin, but the whole world is in panic now. We have seen more proof lately that big players caused this dump. But another very big reason where the leveraged brokers. So the selling we saw, a significant part of it was not voluntarily but forced by the brokers. Because there were no big whales around as normal, the market could not handle all those liquidations so price simply kept on dumping.

Now why am i saying this, well for me it's simple. I see TA as a normal/natural phenomenon. So even whales who manipulate price extremely, is part of that normal proces (unfortunately). Because even they leave tracks when they plan their tricks (my strong suit in finding them). If they really did an exit scam at the 9/10K and left the market now, it means to me that the market is not in balance right now. Which could cause certain TA rules/patterns to fail as well. This could also mean, that some of the signs i look at, are putting me on the wrong foot here.

So honestly, i expected more like a short squeeze move up to these levels, but this looks more like a rally than just a squeeze. On top of that, not seeing anything that looks like profit taking or bears being in control here.

On the upside, bumping against a big resistance. On the downside still think the 6100ish is the first big level, below that the 5800/900.

ノート

Seems like a bull trap move so far. Key level is still 6100ish though. If that one breaks with high volume, think it can drop to 5800/5900 in a straight shot prob

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If 6150/200 holds, its strong, if 6100 breaks with volume

ノート

Dangerous picture here. Not staring blind at it, still surprised it reached 6800/900 today, even though it was very short lived. But makes things more difficult now.

For now, think big support around 6050. If that green support breaks with speed and volume, it could dump all the way to 5000/300, assuming it's a bear flag. If its a wedge, could be 5700/900.

If 6280/300 breaks, the wedge/flag becomes shaky, above 6400 it becomes invalid.

Open intrest keeps on dropping, showing more and more positions/people are leaving the market. It's at an extreme low for current prices. But i am only looking at Bitmex though. Normally should have been close to double.

ノート

Seems the wedge is/was in play so far, but we had a bounce from 5900ish twice now. So maybe we could see like a bigger flag form as i have shown on the right. 6050 still seems to be a big level here, so if we go above it again, things become bit random again.

Also dont forget, its weekend, almost always random sh.t