Bitcoin: Halving Fractal; Price Already Factored In? (May 2)

X Force Global Analysis:

We are witnessing three interesting factors that may contribute to the drop before/during the halving event and why the price may be already factored in.

1. We are in extremely overbought territories as witnessed by our envelope indicator (a very highly effective indicator to show overbought/oversold conditions). The overbought conditions is shown in the chart above indicated by the red circles. Please check our previous analysis on the envelope indicator:


2. We haven't retraced once since this 145% bounce from the bottom. Bitcoin has partially "pulled back", which is very different from a "retrace". A retrace to the 618 fib level is a probable idea based on our theory, according to the fractal of the 2016 halving event.

3. The 2016 Fractal has brought us a 40%+ drop before and during the halving event, which may indicate that with a 'smarter' market, the probabilities of a drop is higher.

Trade Safe.