The Big W - Target 19-20k Rainman2によるCOINBASE:BTCUSDの分析

All you need to know is baked into the chart.

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We're going to complete 3 of them in rapid succession, bringing us waaaay past the previous ATH:

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Do you guys remember when LTC tripled over the course of 3 or 4 days last year? Remember Coinbase and other exchanges going offline at the most inopportune moments, well it's already happening at Kraken. Long entries are being prevented because of some "glitch" and the site itself is flickering on and off. Gotta have a good showing for an excuse when it's game time. On GDAX, you'll see big bursts of red and green, and the price climbing even as sell orders are being filled, as retail investors start tossing in random market buys. It'll be hard to take advantage once the ball gets rolling so plan appropriately.

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We're following this overlay more or less to a T. You can see that around this point is when things shift up. So I wouldn't expect any more significant drops. You can see where I have the yellow eclipse - Once we escape from the purple triangle, it looks like we'll have some additional sideways action in the form of a throwback, so be on the lookout for that.

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The green line above is the neckline of an Inv HS aka the final Boss to get through before we hit our parabolic stride.

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Here's the overlay after the yellow throwback:

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Our escape out of the purple triangle would coincide with a bullish MACD crossover on the weekly:

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Here's what we're looking at for the next hour or two. We want to complete this InvHS on the 15min

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The job's not done after that though, I'm afraid. Unless we see some really strong momentum, this might be what we end up seeing in terms of price movement and break out of the triangle

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Back to our 15min. You can see that we hit our neckline as expected, and now we'd expect a slight drop to form the right shoulder

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we're already on our way back up, very bullish

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I'm calling it a night. If anyone is super nervous, I would set an alert at $9150, or the top of the blue triangle shown in the comments. A break below that point leaves open the possibility that we hit the bottom of the purple triangle, while is somewhere around $7800. But I really don't think that's in the cards, although in this market you never know... One last thing is to mention that we could move up a lot faster than shown in the comments, and relatedly that as we've languished in sideways hell, the one benefit has been that the breakout point keeps dropping lower, right now $9600/9700 would do the trick.

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We've completed the inverse, next stop 9550

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The bad news is we never went on to finish the second inv HS, the good news is that we bounced off of the blue triangle, so we're going to do our final push to complete the purple triangle now. I'm not sure the top of the blue triangle will withstand another hit...

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As I posted previously, if we move below the top of the blue triangle, ~9150, I would close any long positions, as we could be retesting the bottom of the blue triangle.

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We're pulling back up after puncturing the blue triangle again. I could go either way at this point...

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We broke through the blue triangle, but we seemed to have stopped the bleeding and are heading back up. There will be implications for the pattern, I'm just not sure what they would be.

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Drop below the blue triangle, completed a head and shoulders, we're heading to 7800

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we've almost pulled back up from the blue triangle...

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there's way too much buying pressure up. I don't think we're going down any further... which frankly, is shocking. If we manage to move back up. We'd have pierced the blue triangle on the 4hr but our Big W pattern would still be in play.

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we're forming a symmetrical triangle on the 15min, the break from this triangle should settle it...

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if this triangle breaks to the topside, we're going to have a buying frenzy

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there's a war going on inside of this triangle

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sooooo close:

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fat lady is warming up, but this isn't finished yet

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Notice how this war is waging at the boundary between the blue and purple triangles? We're going to break upwards...

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We've cleared the triangle but without a definitive breakout, we might just have extended the triangle.

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and.... we've extended the triangle

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Success!

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That was wayyyy too close for comfort, just another not so subtle reminder to avoid margin in this market

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We're not out of the woods, as all that has led to the formation of a bear flag:

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Generally, in this kind of situation, I would say the bigger flag wins, but at this point I think we have momentum on our side

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If this flag breaks downwards. The black trendline may stop it, around 8950. That's the new trend line that I believe we will establish as we head up. If we drop below that line, Chances are that the chart patterns I've IDed are not going to happen and you should follow someone else... :/

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We're still inside of the flag, we haven't broken down from it

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I agree with this guy:

KISS the DOWNTREND goodbye. We are finishing DISBELIEF NOW.

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we're about to skyrocket

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he's saying 8850, I say 8650, at this point its tomaeto tomato. Quick dip then skyrocket.

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maybe no dip at all...

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top of the blue triangle is holding... buckle your seat belts...

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we've hit bottom

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get in now while you can.

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The fact that the blue triangle was not breach still leaves this in the cards

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My estimate of the new ATH varies, but it will be significantly more than the previous ATH.

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Bull flag on the weekly

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and what happened the last time we had a bull flag on the weekly:

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we just bounced off of the blue triangle again, this time no pierce, however, there are 3 and a half hours left for the candle to still do that

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if we were to drop here, then we would have 20, 50, 100 SMA cross under in rapid succession and the 200 would serve as support. Since that would invalidate the biggest Big W, what we want to see is the 20 bounce off of the 50, and resume the upward trek...

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you can see in red what happened the last time the 20 tried to cross under the 50. The upwards movement after that takes place, should that happen again, should be enough to break us out of the triangle and complete the inverse hs

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MACD is just about ready to fall out of its triangle, this is a critical juncture...

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we're looking good so far

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still good... but if we keep banging away at the top of that triangle, eventually it will crack.

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Still hanging in there

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@alanmasters is posting updates on the alts again, which means that they are starting to move, which also means this is another opportunity, perhaps the last, maybe next to the last, opportunity for BTC to definitively breakout

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the triangle is starting to run out of runway...

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still good, although this is making me hella uneasy

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we've breached the top of the blue triangle for the third time

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it's not game over yet, we're gonna give the 20SMA an opportunity to hit the 50 and bounce off

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Just a friendly reminder that everyone is calling for a drop - anywhere between 8800 to 7200. I'm the only idiot waiting for this bounce, so just keep that in mind as you make rational choices about your money, crypto or otherwise

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the SMAs still haven't made contact, although the red candle looks awful...

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I think we're about to have a really big spike....

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4 hr candle has 4 mins left to make a doji...

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no doji, and no 20 bounce off 50...

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We got one of the top guys I follow coming out and saying this might be it... I'm going to give myself a mulligan and say I miss-drew the triangle - the two yellow circles canceling each other out. There's actually a reason I drew it that way, so obviously, at least some of my base assumptions were wrong, but I can discuss the implications of that at a later point if warranted... for now, I wouldn't discount the boom... although I wouldn't count on it either. Good night!

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I am so curious as to how the alts will perform right now...

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so I redrew my blue triangle to accommodate the two yellow areas circled above, which led to me fixing my purple triangle, which gave me this:

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We already escaped from the purple triangle, this was the throwback, and now we're just trying to break through the inv hs neckline

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a close up view

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Do you own homework and make your own decisions. Ok? That said. if my idea is correct, and we've escaped from the triangle, a breach of the green neckline could, I emphasize COULD, allow BTC to go to 16.5 basically straight up. I was able to find one guy with a similar idea. Now, if that happens, and you're trading BTC pairs on margin, you're going to get rekt. I'll link to the other guy's idea.

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Can't find it... maybe he changed his mind and deleted it? Thought he would come off as a complete nutjob? This has been a central claim for almost 2 weeks now, a straight up jump... I've gone from 11.5k to where I stand now, at 16.5k. Why do I keep doubling down? I think the longer we've been stuck in neutral, the more fuel BTC has stored for the mooning. Pattern-wise, the 3 Peaks and Domed House Pattern I talk about in earlier charts is built into the fractal pattern of the Big W. My theory is that due to manipulation of prices, especially that 1k jump we saw 3 or 4 weeks ago and all the sideways action since, we're going to complete 3 of these fractals at once, so what would have taken us to 11.k then 14k then 16.5k, are now going to take place all at once. A redrawning of the triangles, to me anyway, showed more evidence of this. It's a completely off the wall and bonkers theory, and I would never advocate trading based on it... but I really think it's going to happen. We shall see once we breach the green line...

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3 - 3 peaks

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the alts are starting to seriously lag behind BTC

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timing... I'll post a new image with each new candle

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I updated my overlay, based on a question in the comments section. If this holds up, I have the next year nailed down.

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We're looking really good

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Ok, I think I have the basic mechanism of the btc-alts trade off down. So when BTC goes up, the alts will go up, some will go up faster, but the rate at which they go up in comparison to BTC will slow down over time. This is because when BTC slows down or takes a slight dip, the alts will dip even further. Now this may have been a tradable situation if it were macro, taking place over days or weeks. But I think this is going to take place on a micro scale, hours or even less, the end result will be drops across the board (maybe a few rare exceptions) of alt-btc pairings as money exits the alt markets and flows into BTC.

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You can see with ETH prices, this is already starting to happen.

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IF, and guys it's a BIG IF, my theory holds up, then BTC will see no more than a 15% drop on a macro scale on the way up. I think that number will actually be around 3%. And if you guys keep in mind the shape of a parabolic curve, the price on the y-axis increases exponentially as you move across the x-axis aka time. If I'm right and we are at the beginning of that curve, things will continue to accelerate until we hit the ATH. Right now the two best contenders are shown in the Red and Blue lines. The black line was also a contender, taking far longer to get to an ATH, but if the next candle closes above the current one, I think we can safely rule that one out. So the red and blue essentially match in trajectory perfectly up until 13-16k range (I know big range) at which point there's a correction. The difference is that with the red overlay that correction is around 15% (BUT the new ATH is much higher) with the blue overlay that correction is around 3% (BUT we don't get much higher than the previous ATH). Both ATHs are reached prior to the end of the month, after that is another laundry list of possibilities that we'll have to cross off one by one to get to the next ATH. But let's see if this one plays out the way I'm expecting it to.

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spoke too soon about ruling out the black overlay

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switching over to the 1hr chart. We need to bring the price up above 9320 to complete this Inv HS

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we as in you, yes you, go buy some bitcoin!

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Completion of that Inv HS puts us firmly within the purple or blue overlays.

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the next pump up is coming in a few minutes

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if the current inv HS fails, then we'll create an extended win, to finish a slanted one. If, it fails.

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wing

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if this guy is right, it will fail and we'll retest the top of the triangle

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I don't think it's going to fail but he's a top writer and I'm new so...

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We're not dropping, we're doing this right here, right now, the conditions are too perfect

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closeup of 15min chart

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A bump up from here to the first black line completes Inv HS2 - bigger than HS1 but will complete first none the less. The breakout from that completion complete HS1, so no throwback required, and just push on through to Inv HS3, which isn't drawn in but you can see the black neckline and imagine the shape. We'd still need to complete the right shoulder for the HS3 so expect a little dip and then we punch right through to meet up with overlay blue or overlay purple. ¯\_(:/)_/¯

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The completion of the head for Inv HS3 will poke us out past the green neckline, and the right shoulder will be the throwback, there's almost always some kind of throwback...

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back to the randomly drawn lines on the 15min. It's 50/50 whether we bounce back from the hit to the dotted line, but we will definitely bounce back from the intersection of the two solid lines, no telling how far of a drop that bounce will be, it might be very minimal, but worst case scenario, I don't think we will get much below the dotted green line. If that turns out to be the case, I'll zoom out to show you what that dotted green line represents.

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Definitive break through the neckline, a good sign

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A little throw back from the line, creating a bull flag

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So we got thrown back by the dotted line... we're still building up strength it seems. On the plus side, the 4hr basically now shows every kind of bullish candlestick pattern I've read about. For a fun exercise, if you're just starting off, try to identify them all :)

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It looks like we're about to ramp things up, so I'll zoom, out to the dotted green line, we're already parabolic...

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can't really tell when you're in it, it just seems like a straight line.

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whew that was close... I'll continue to post candle pics as we progress

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People seem to like the detailed updates so I'll continue them (aside from sir waves-a-lot). Here's one last thought before I peace out for the night since a lot of my TA has to do with fractals:

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reposting a previous chart because of how accurate the overlay has been so far, obviously, if this chart were to hold up, my parabolic idea would be voided

Two Half-Baked Brains are Better Than One

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I've come to believe that big movements, whether up or down, come at a time of fractal alignment, where you can see that the same pattern produced by a different set of candles in each time frame all manage to come to the same part of the pattern at the same point in time. I think we're gearing up for one of those now. You saw the fractal on the Weekly as compare to the 4hr above. Now here's the daily compared to the 4hr:

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Now the 1hr compared to the 4hr

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5min chart compared to the 4hr

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watch out

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a quick dip then up we go

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fractals aren't an exact science, and they can shift on you when you least expect it. The fractals will now start to diverge as we move forward obviously and those at smaller time scales will no longer be worth tracking, but the immediate result of the convergence at smaller time frames should carry through the various time frames like dominos. So...

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now comes the point where my ideas and the top guys' ideas start to converge "enormous green stick" hahaha

Lets do this one more time! The Shorting Squeeze returns!

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If this short squeeze happens, you can see that I spotted the repeating fractal pattern back on the 7th, in a comment in my GO BUY SOME BITCOOOIINNNEEE chart. As I'm finding, and what I continue to find amazing, is that various different TA techniques that seem completely misaligned, somehow (eventually) ended up with the same conclusion

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And obviously, it would align with what I thought would happen as a result of the Big W pattern & what I will now refer to as the ¯\_(:/)_/¯ theory - which you can find more detail on in the GO BUY SOME... chart.

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I redrew the parabolic curve so that it touches the bottom of the triangle, and yes, it is still holding

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It's started.

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Moment of truth, I hope you guys are strapped in.

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Last line of defense is top of the blue triangle 8950

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We have a winner in terms of the overlay discussed above, the winner is the purple overlay. For those of you watching nervously, I'm going to give you a panoramic of the overlay so you can see how closely they match

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the overlay starts around the 3/9 time frame or 3/7 as indicated by a question in the comments, that's a point in time where basically every major trendline converged onto one point on the chart. It's where I believe our fractal cycle ended and a new one began:

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now you can see the 1k jump we experienced about a month back was pure price manipulation, if that jump were not there, and the sideways action for the last month were moved down, you can see that the overlay would match the price exactly

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And now to zoom out, and give you guys the whole picture, you can see where our parabolic curve meets up with the overlay

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All that said, if they manipulated the price up, that means they can also manipulate it down, so I wouldn't take anything for granted.

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this is the pullback, if we hadn't had that 1k jump, it would have been the bottom of the triangle.

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Enjoy the run, I need to go have a drink... jesus

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punctured but not broken... that was the last line, if we go down from here, then consider my idea null in void, but right now, it's still in play

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mother f'in bitcoin... well this line holds mother f'er

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I got good news and bad news. Per the fractal pattern I posted above, and the changes to that pattern that's happened in the last half day. I think that we go up from here, but it will only be temporary and that our trials and tribulations aren't over. It's going to take a few pictures to explain.

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See the daily on the left and 4hr on the right. I thought before this big dip that these were fractals of each other, but the depth of the dip, the fact that it goes below the second bottom of the W shape made me realize that it is actually not the same fractal

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it's actually this fractal, the fall from last year's ATH

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the fractals need to complete somehow, otherwise, they wouldn't be fractals. So I think we will need to complete the area circled in blue before we can have the breakout that everyone's been waiting for. So no dips past where we are now, but still more sideways action to come in the next few days... sorry

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The purple triangle with the crazy high ATH is invalidated (unless we hit the bottom of the triangle - if we do, we can try again). The one shown in the original chart and the one below is still in play...

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I think we've stopped...

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RSI finally reads oversold...

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this is not a drill, incoming

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I'm confident that we're heading back up. That does not mean that I'm not wrong, as I've been wrong before and as I will be wrong in the future. So, take it as an idea, and an idea only.

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credit for side by side image @mxpwladimir

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I hate to state the obvious but whole cycle kinda looks like ¯\_(:/)_/¯

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we are good, the triangle (admittedly redrawn) is holding). And we are working towards an alignment of the fractal patterns again. This time I see a clear way that the fractals will align. I'll go through this in step by step pictures. First the Weekly vs the Daily

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you can see that the daily and weekly fractals - in this case a W shape with a preceding price hike and ending price drop, are completely aligned, as in they look like a version of each other. Unfortunately, the 4hr/6hr fractal has been the problem child this whole time. And I had one theory about how that fractal might be able to complete, which failed with the latest drop. But now, as you'll see in the next picture, the time frames have aligned to a point that there is a clear way that the 6 hr will become aligned in the near future, days, but still...

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The matching parts of the fractal are circled in yellow. Since 6hr is on a shorter time frame and is incomplete, it has the opportunity to eventually morph into that the daily and weekly look like now, and once all three are aligned, I think we will have that big breakout... at least that my theory

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we dropped a bit further than I was expecting, but the fractal pattern is proceeding as expected

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on the one hour, the fractal already completed

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So I'm reading this book, it's called Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin LeFevre. And, I came across a passage that I think is very apt at a time like this:

"And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance."

(Page 55).

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cont.

"The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight. Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks. Then get out of all your stocks; get out for keeps! Wait until you see or if you prefer, until you think you see the turn of the market; the beginning of a reversal of general conditions. You have to use your brains and your vision to do this; otherwise my advice would be as idiotic as to tell you to buy cheap and sell dear. One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, in the aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent."

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As you might have guessed, I believe that we are at the very beginnings of a bull market, what do you believe?

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I'm not saying it's a perfect replica, but that's because it doesn't have to be. We're looking for a general fractal form/curve, and as far as I can see, we're still good:

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one last passage from the book:

"Without faith in his own judgment no man can go very far in this game. That is about all I have learned to study general conditions, to take a position and stick to it. I can wait without a twinge of impatience. I can see a setback without being shaken, knowing that it is only temporary. I have been short one hundred thousand shares and I have seen a big rally coming. I have figured and figured correctly that such a rally as I felt was inevitable, and even wholesome, would make a difference of one million dollars in my paper profits. And I nevertheless have stood pat and seen half my paper profit wiped out, without once considering the advisability of covering my shorts to put them out again on the rally. I knew that if I did I might lose my position and with it the certainty of a big killing. It is the big swing that makes the big money for you."

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Note here that this could be the match fractal, keeping 7800 in play

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you can see how that would still work with the 4/6hr

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I'm literally dealing with trolls hitting for being bullish and bearish... like seriously

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This is sir waves-a-lot's latest chart... I have no f'in words...

Is Bitcoin going to moon? possible 20k top?

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Here you go wavy gravy, I fixed it for you

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Notice how I'm not spamming your comment's section?

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XLM appears to be one of the first movers. Here's what the same fractal looks like on that chart:

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Here's a side by side so you can see where we're hopefully going with this

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XLM is trying to complete an inv hs, as I expect we will

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soooo close

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check out the red circles on the sentiment index, and alignment with the chart

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see the levels and zones on the 1hr, support and no resistance, we have our answer

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A majority of the top writers are going short, so we have a setup for a short squeeze. If we are able to breach the solid green line, we're in the clear.

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We've all heard of the market cycle and how that cycle manifests into a similar pattern in the charts ¯\_(:/)_/¯. So here's an interesting comparison I found between Bitcoin and Nasdaq Composite. Now if your doing a pattern comparison, you might be tempted to say that were we are now is one of the two areas circled in green (this is irrespective of whether or not we drop another 1k, which I don't think we will, but regardless):

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But where most people might see only 1 bubble, I see 2. A big bubble, followed immediately by a smaller one, through that lens, you could view this comparison like this (as I do):

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Now does this mean we'll have another drop, the Big W pattern tells me no. But, in reality, who really knows? The bigger point I'm trying to make is that it's irrespective of where we are. We are at, or close to, the very base of the new bubble.

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I was wondering what that 1hr fractal was...