Bitcoin - when should you buy and why?

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Hi guys!

In my last Bitcoin TA i pointed that we have formed two strong support levels, and we may bounce of it during this correction.
Though i thought there might be not enought room to retrace between the support lines, we are probably realising this scenario.

Look at the chart. We have not broken our descending channel. However we have very strong day candle so far and we may break this channel. If so, we should close the day over the yellow line, then retest, and buy in the second break of the yellow line. Not earlier, because at this moment we are still falling down whithin the trend.
This is bullish scenario, and i think there is a 40% chance we break this channel and confirm within the next days.

Now the bearish scenario which i think is more probable now, and i give it 60%.
Look at the marked fractals - similar pattern. They tend to repeat, and we may be retesting our actual support line, as we retested our previous support line, multiple times. With each subsequent time our support becomes weaker. There's just not enough people willing to buy for such a price, because they have already bought at previous dips.

So am i right? What is your opinion?
Your comments motivates me to do more TAs :)

ノート

So, guys...
Have we broken the channel? It depends :) In linear price scale yes, we have.
But should we use linear scale analyzing BTC longterm chart?
Well, probably not. As, in general, most professional traders and charting programs by default use logarithmic price, we should've been using log scale.
And how the BTC chart looks then?

Looks like our channel is an expanding wedge, and hasn't been broken yet.

And what is the difference between linear and logarithmic scale?
In general linear scale is based on the numbers, and logarithmic on percents.
It means that in linear scale the distance between 10 and 20, and for example 120 and 130 will be the same, because of the equal difference which is 10. But the price from 10 to 20 must have been doubled (100%). And from 120 to 130 it needed under 10% of growth only.
Using logarithmic scale the distance will be equal between 10 and 20, and then between 120 and 240 because of the equal percentage increase, which is 100% for 10->20 and 120->240.

So using local, 1min chart we may use linear scale. Analyzing long periods should be done using logarithmic scale because it represents the strenght of growth better.

So are we going up or down? Next days will give us an answer :)

ノート

We are heading to decision point.
Double top and this yellow line create a resistance. If we can't break these lines we fall down. I've marked the resistance and support lines below

ノート

We bounced of the resistance at ~11700USD so we're falling down and watching which support line holds. The strongest one in nearest future will be this at ~9300USD, but we may bounce of the support at 10200USD.

ノート

So we're heading to ~9200USD. We may bounce of this support line for a while, because this is the point where first buyers may come (previous double bottom)