The key is whether the four-year cycle pattern can be continued

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A new 1-year candle will now be created.

Accordingly, we will take the time to talk about next year's movements with the 12M chart.

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We continually say that you cannot create a trading strategy based solely on the information gained from chart analysis.

Therefore, you must use the information obtained from chart analysis to suit your trading strategy.

Currently suitable coins for long-term investment are BTC and ETH.

The next coins that are seen as expanding the coin ecosystem are BNB,

Among these, the coins that must be traded by increasing the number of coins held for profit are BNB, XRP, ADA, TRX, KLAY, OP, and WEMIX coins.

The coins mentioned above are representative coins that form the coin ecosystem.

By checking the coins (tokens) included in this coin ecosystem, you can select additional coins in addition to BTC and ETH to continue investing in the mid- to long-term.

It does not matter if the number of items (coins, tokens) that increase the number of coins (tokens) held for profit is large, so you need to think about this.

Increasing the number of coins (tokens) held corresponding to profit means selling the coins (tokens) corresponding to the purchase amount and leaving the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit, so if you sell the amount equal to the purchase amount, the average purchase price is 0.

Trading in this way is possible because the coin market allows trading in decimals.

Therefore, if you trade in the coin market the same way you traded in the stock market, you may feel confused and need to rewrite your trading strategy for the coin market.

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#BTCUSD 12M

The key question is whether the four-year cycle pattern that started in 2014 can continue this time.

It displays the Fibonacci ratio formed in the upward trend that started in 2015.

The Fibonacci ratio formed in the upward trend that started in 2019 is displayed.

If the 3.618 point of the Fibonacci ratio in the uptrend that started in 2015 is applied to the Fibonacci ratio in the uptrend that started in 2019, the 3.618 point is the 178910.15 point.

Therefore, the key question is whether it can rise above 1.618 percentage points, or 89126.41 points, next year.

Since there is no guarantee that movement will continue according to the past pattern cycle, we must respond according to the situation.

Since it has currently touched the 44234.5 point, which is the 0.618 percentage point, if there is a price adjustment before it rises, it is necessary to check if it is supported around 38937.30, which is the 0.5 percentage point.

Next, we need to see if it can rise above the 2.618 percentage point, which is 134018.28.

End 2023 well, and have a happy new year in 2024.

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- The big picture

The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.

This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.

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** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.

** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA

** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.

** This chart was created using my know-how.

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ノート

(12M LOG)

(1M LOG)

If we compare the current movement to the previous pattern, it is expected that after rising to around 57014.33, a pull back pattern will be seen and a general uptrend will begin.

When creating a pull back pattern, it seems likely that the bottom will be created near the bottom of the box of the HA-High indicator or near the HA-High indicator.

Accordingly, from the current price position,
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
I think there is a high possibility of receiving support around the first and second rounds above.

If previous patterns continue, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.

ノート

#BTCUSD 12M

1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15

These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.

Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting area, you should check the movement when this area is touched.

ノート

You may think that I am talking about something different from what you said, but I think it is a perspective that should be considered when looking at the current coin market.

I think the coin market can be roughly divided into two categories.
It can be classified into BTC and altcoins.

These altcoins can be further divided into two categories.
It can be classified into ETH and altcoins.

Altcoins can be further divided into two categories.
It can be classified into coins and tokens.

What we should pay attention to here are BTC, ETH, and altcoins.

Currently, the only recognized product is BTC.

So, products made with BTC should be released in all areas.

I think that only then will altcoin products centered on ETH be released.

The launch of spot ETF products is an important issue right now, but in the larger picture, it is just a starting point.

Therefore, even if the price falls after the launch of this ETF, nothing will change except that you will have the opportunity to purchase again.

This is because the coin market has only just gained wings.

In fact, altcoins are only for day trading and are not yet considered worth investing in.

In order for an altcoin to have investment value, it must have marketability.

Its marketability must be either used in actual industry or recognized as an investment product.

Coins (tokens) that still have such commercial value are extremely limited.

If you want a long-term investment in the coin market, BTC coin is the only option for now.

Here, you can make long-term investments in ETH, which is highly likely to become commercially viable in the future.

Therefore, if you do not currently have BTC or ETH, you are only a day trader in the coin market.

As I have repeatedly said, long-term investment in altcoins is possible through transactions that increase the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profits.

If you want to invest longer than that, you should invest in BTC or ETH.

As the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profits increases, altcoins will also see the light of day when they are commercialized as ETFs.

If it is used in actual industry before then, it will become a product.

It is recommended not to be sensitive to the price volatility of altcoins in the coin market.

It is unnecessary to think, “Why? Won’t this altcoin rise, or why did it rise so much?”

Because no one is saying that the altcoin is a commodity yet.

ノート

I don't know if you remember, but I told you that the secondary purchase of altcoins should be done slowly in the 32K-43K range as a mid- to long-term investment.

I think you will understand why you need to buy slowly when you look at the current situation.

In order for BTC to rise, most funds in the coin market must be concentrated towards BTC.

The reason is that the BTC price is quite high.

In order to raise this high price, more funds are inevitably needed.

Even if the secondary purchase of altcoins is completed early from a mid- to long-term perspective, a strategy is still needed to lower the average purchase price or increase the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profits until the coin rise shows a major upward trend.

From a mid- to long-term perspective, the third purchase of an altcoin, that is, the last purchase, is when the price rises above the HA-High indicator of the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts and maintains the price.

If that happens, it will be judged that the general upward trend is ready to begin.

ノート

In the two charts above, an important volume profile section is formed around 42.2K.

Accordingly, I think it is highly likely that the chart will be redrawn based on 42.2K in the future.

The most important issue this year is the BTC halving.

Therefore, I think an important key is whether the price can be maintained above 42.2K after the BTC halving.

It is thought that the coin market is likely to maintain an upward trend until 2025, so it is expected to have a different experience than after the previous BTC halving.

ノート

To use the Fibonacci ratio in the chart tool, you must specify a selection point.

Therefore, Fibonacci ratio analysis can be completely different depending on how well the selection points are chosen, so you must be careful.

In order to use the Fibonacci ratio, you must know how to see waves.

A more accurate Fibonacci ratio can be determined only if the selected wave falls near an important wave, that is, near the start and end of the wave.

However, it is not a good idea to try to find support and resistance points or waves using only Fibonacci ratios.

In order to observe waves, you must first identify and draw the support and resistance points made up of candles.

Care must be taken to analyze charts only with Fibonacci ratios, ignoring the support and resistance points made up of actual candle arrangements, as this may increase the risk in actual trading.

The most important time frame chart in chart analysis is the 1D chart.

The reason is that most indicators are created based on 1D charts.

Therefore, when looking at time frame charts below 1D charts, you should be careful of movements such as fakes or whipsaws.

Time frame charts larger than 1D charts have fewer fakes or whipsaws than 1D charts, but change more slowly, so they are not easy to use for trading.

Accordingly, support and resistance points on time frame charts above the 1D chart should be marked on the chart and a trading strategy should be created using the support and resistance points on the 1D chart.

It is a good idea to identify and respond to retracement waves using the Fibonacci ratio, but it depends on how well the points are selected, and the support and resistance points according to the arrangement of the candles must be included in the Fibonacci ratio.

Therefore, in order to properly utilize the Fibonacci ratio, you must study the arrangement of candles, find the support and resistance points that follow, and create a trading strategy appropriate for those points.

If not, you need to be careful as it can lead to transactions being carried out in a wrong way.

Therefore, I think it is not a good idea to use Fibonacci ratios in short intervals or periods.

You can see many people using Fibonacci ratios to analyze charts even on 1D chart time frame charts.

At this time, I think that support and resistance points according to the arrangement of the candles must be displayed together so that the Fibonacci ratio can be utilized properly.

Most of my chart analysis is done using the indicators included in the chart.

Accordingly, if you look at my charts often, anyone can check and utilize the appropriate analysis.

I think this ultimately serves to increase the reliability of chart analysis.

However, sometimes charts are analyzed using indicators other than those included in the chart.

I don't think you will have much difficulty understanding this analysis because the basis for the analysis is presented in a variety of ways or the methods of use are consistently discussed.