Trading Success Methodology

2018年10月13日

@crypot8020[/I]
~ Inspired by goldbug1 and MarcPMarkets

In our weekly BTC chart, the lower green circle is showing the 100 day moving average. The upper green circle is the location of the 100 day moving average on the daily BTC chart.

Survival Tactics:
If you only have 10K to invest, risking the entire 10K and being reactive makes you weak. Putting $600 at risk and sticking to your plan makes you strong. In the near term, $600 dropping to $400 won’t shake you, but 10K going to 6K may. The way you sleep at night is a clue to if you’re a strong or weak trader!

If you want to be a strong trader, play like the strong do, not like the reactive herd of sheeple. Risk only what you are willing to lose, this will make you a stronger trader, and it is more important to be as strong trader than to act like one. Strong traders, no matter how small, make money. Those who act like strong traders, yet react with the herd, are acting like “Big Fish”. They typically become prey to lurking predators and lose money. We maintain our long positions and stay strong.

Do you think hedge funds are not praying that the herd of sheeple sell and trigger their buy orders? We have money eager to come into the market. We accumulate at these levels, and if price goes lower, we accumulate more. Why? Because we believe in the long-term, price will only go up, way up!!!

Human Behavior:
As a trader, it’s important to have a good perception of reality. You need to understand where you stand in the food chain to behave appropriately. Human behavior is a funny thing. We all see those sheeple that act big and bad, when in reality, they're weak. How can you tell? They act like a “Big Fish”, and speak of large trades, but they don’t have whale money.

It’s more important to realize where we stand in the food chain than trying to be perceived as a “Big Fish”. As the various seas of crypto markets get bigger, they’re attracting bigger predators. BTC is no longer under major suspect, it’s becoming more of an asset like digital gold. Endowment Fund predators have become attracted to the shift in sentiment and these large predators are now lurking in the deep crypto waters waiting for signs of weakness. They swim through the crypto market waters devouring all the “Big Fish” in small seas. If some are feeding in these crypto waters, there are most likley other predators, maybe bigger ones, lying in wait.

Killer Whales:
Killer whales hunt in packs. One whale is tasked with staying visible as the others lay in wait. You only see what they want you to see, a sell wall for instance. The school of fish won’t typically see what the whales don’t want you to see, like their hidden buy orders. The most important things are typically not apparent. The school of fish see a whale and panic, they start selling off or shorting their BTC.

Understanding how whales behave is more important than being a TA expert. Whales devour thousands of BTC for the long term, they need to eat lots of BTC holding fish to survive. The markets are not yet full of liquidity, and there is no central exchange, so BTC is spread out among numerous exchanges. Therefore, whales have to get creative and swim to various crypto market seas to accumulate BTC by devouring the weak BTC holding schools of fish.

BTC order books are full of small orders and then you see a big order for 100+ BTC at key buying levels. This is a sign that exchanges are creating order action in between real orders. In conditions of low liquidity and shallow trading, someone must create the action. Killer whales have to school all the “Big Fish” together and steer them into the kill zone so they can more easily fill their bellies with BTC holding fish.

Whales keep buying into weakness at good prices and HODL for the long-term. They don’t mind sitting on coins for years, this is what makes them so strong. Support has held strong above the 5800 level for some time now. If price drops lower, whales just dip into their bankroll and devour weak BTC holding fish.

The Strong:
Since we aren’t whales, we shouldn't try to behave like whales. If you want to be a strong trader, you have to hold strong and not be shaken out by fear of short-term loss. Take the emotional aspect out of investing and think long-term. The easiest way to do this is by only trading with what you are willing to lose.

Do you think whales care about BTC going to 4K? What makes them strong players is they’re not afraid of losing. Whales can still sleep at night if the market falls to 4k. Weak traders looking to make a killing fast experience portfolio erosion because they’re getting in and out of the market so frequently. They react emotionally during selloffs and sell-off blaming the whales for manipulating the market. We could care less about short-term losses, as we believe the market has nowhere to go but up. In the long-run, this is how real money is made, not by day trading for home runs.

What’s Next:
Was this a bear trap, or will we see BTC move lower? Those who hesitate, panic, or fall into FUD are just like a school of fish who see a whale and are steered directly into the kill zone to be devoured by the predators who are lying in wait.

Nothing has changed, we still continue to consolidate. Is there potential to move lower, yes, but who cares. We can still break out to the upside as well. Back up and look at the big picture, have a plan, stick to your plan, and don’t let the whales manipulate your actions, HODL strong, HODL long!!!

We're adding here, and we'll add more if BTC goes lower. Everyone is guessing, ignore the noise. The more time passes with BTC holding strong above $5800, the more likely it will break out to the upside.

Best!!!
@crypot8020[/I]

~ Inspired by goldbug1 and MarcPMarkets