Bitcoin Outlook For September-December 200k-400k Trend

9月2日
Bitcoin Outlook For September-December


Today we take a look at the Bitcoin price and we also cross check this with the spot Gold price.


Gold is a leading indicator for where a bulk of major capital flows when navigating the market and this is due to Gold being a safe haven next to Government bonds to park capital when you know governments will start forcing rate cuts with chance of QE + YCC.


Historically Gold clearly shows us the rallies prior the capital rotating into risk on assets, we saw it in 2017, 2020, and now we see it in 2024. If history repeats this would reprice Bitcoin to over $200,000 - $400,000 and this would start the next phase of the bull market.



Spot ETF Flows are strong, institutions have tested marketing strategies, Blackrock is currently pushing to enable the derivatives layers on top of the Spot ETF's.


I have compiled and tested Spot ETF data and I have found the Spot ETF to have a 3.32 impact for every dollar. To get to the price target of 400k total Spot ETF AUM would need to total 363.19B (Currently $52.04 billion).



Conclusion

• This is feeling more and more like $2,200 during July 2017 shortly after prices rallied to $5,690 by October 2017, a similar repeat would take the price to $150,000.
  
  
• Institutions are accumulating slowly based on the dips indicating they are trying to keep the price under an amount like $100,000 that could trigger a rush back into Bitcoin by retail. Balances of > 100 Bitcoin and of > 1,000 are slowly starting to rise.
  
  
• Balances of > 0.1 & > 1.0 & > 0.01 have started to trend sideways reducing each month indicating a sense of "boredom" where retail is selling and institutions are accumulating these bored coins.
  
  
• MSTR remains to be one of the bullish stocks relating to Bitcoin and when institutions launch a large marketing campaign and start mutual fund allocations the MSTR / Multiple to NAV will experience large volatility.
  
  
  
• The cycles are similar but the game has changed, all the money in the world has access to the Bitcoin market and there's less than 3,000,000 coins left to purchase. Once the next stage of this market begins it will be met with shock by retail and news around the world.
  

Extra Math Notes

Ratio of Exchange Balance to Active Supply:
3,000,000 #BTC (Exchange Balance)
Ratio ≈ 0.301
9,964,872.56 BTC (Active Supply)
Spot ETF AUM has a 3.32 Price Impact

400k = 363.19b

I have figured out this formula by taking the exchange balances / Active Supply of Bitcoin that is lively the last years and not lost or total supply, getting the ratio and figuring out how much the Spot ETF moves the Bitcoin price.