BTC - When in Doubt Zoom OUT 2013 - 2021 Channel
アップデート済
BTC's entire history channel path reveals some very interesting details when looking further into the chart.
First - notice that we are retesting the very heartline of the entire channel - a necessary retracement condition to continue the bullrun.
In the 2017 Bullrun we tested the heartline in Sept. in a very similar fashion - a large dump and then a recovery that recaptures the previous local high w/in 21 days.
Another very similar selloff during a bear market was the March 2020 Corona Dump where bitcoin fell significantly (>50%), but then w/in 7 days was up significantly from the bottom and recovered the pre-COVID local high w/in 57 days. Notice it took longer, 57 days versus 21 days, imo b/c of the bear market factor - it takes prices longer to recover depending on whether you're in a bull or bear market.
Lastly, notice similar to the 2013 market, BTC's price fell below the 21 Week EMA and even closed below it before recovering and then moving onwards to a new ATH by end of November / early December.
Notice, you can see the cycle end top goes through the roof of the channel in a "blow off top fashion" before crashing down.
I believe we are in a very similar pattern as the Sept 2017 selloff which tested the heartline. We are clearly in bearish momentum and need to regain bullish structure but I do not think for a min. this is the end of the bull market and you can clearly see this when you zoom out and look at BTC's entire price curve using this simple channel analysis.
First - notice that we are retesting the very heartline of the entire channel - a necessary retracement condition to continue the bullrun.
In the 2017 Bullrun we tested the heartline in Sept. in a very similar fashion - a large dump and then a recovery that recaptures the previous local high w/in 21 days.
Another very similar selloff during a bear market was the March 2020 Corona Dump where bitcoin fell significantly (>50%), but then w/in 7 days was up significantly from the bottom and recovered the pre-COVID local high w/in 57 days. Notice it took longer, 57 days versus 21 days, imo b/c of the bear market factor - it takes prices longer to recover depending on whether you're in a bull or bear market.
Lastly, notice similar to the 2013 market, BTC's price fell below the 21 Week EMA and even closed below it before recovering and then moving onwards to a new ATH by end of November / early December.
Notice, you can see the cycle end top goes through the roof of the channel in a "blow off top fashion" before crashing down.
I believe we are in a very similar pattern as the Sept 2017 selloff which tested the heartline. We are clearly in bearish momentum and need to regain bullish structure but I do not think for a min. this is the end of the bull market and you can clearly see this when you zoom out and look at BTC's entire price curve using this simple channel analysis.
ノート
Notice once above the heartline, you don't fall under until you've clearly already started a bear market months prior.ノート
BTC is currently printing an inverse head and shoulders pattern. If confirmed, upside target would be mid-to-high 40k range
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