Will history repeat itself

Can a break to below $9500 take us back to sub $6000???

Looking back at the last descending triangle in November 2018 we dropped about 45% after the break to the downside.

Looking at the current BTCUSD descending triangle a 45% correction would take us to roughly the same point in relation to the overall move (just under0.7786 fib level) this also lines up with an area of strong support/ resistance all the way back to before the run-up in late 2017
FibonacciSupport and ResistanceTriangle

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