ビットコイン／米ドルショート
#Bitcoin Monthly MACD Flips Bear
Hi everyone,
Thank you for considering reading my idea.
Before this, I had a lot of bullish analyses last year when we were at 69K but turns out to be a huge RSI bearish divergence. Please note that this is not a prediction that's going to happen in the next 6 months.
Zooming out of the charts to monthly timeframe, we can see that the MACD has reversed after we closed the January 2022 candle and possible marks the start of the bear market.
This is not 100% reliable as this is just a pattern that happened only 2 times but on a bigger timeframe. We can see the MACD Histogram that is in dark red from:
1. August 2014 - February 2015 (7 months)
2. July 2018 - January 2019 (7 months)
We can also see that on January 2015, we touched the 200 week moving average (200W MA - green line). Same with December 2018 as we touched the 200W MA. Basically, it touched the 200W MA 1 month before the last dark red on the MACD Histogram.
If we were to assume the pattern and apply it from today:
1. The MACD Histogram in dark red would also take 7 months (January 2022 - July 2022)
2. The price would bottom on the 200W MA estimated at around $19,000 - $21,000.
Lastly, could we reverse on the MACD indicator? Yes, but it would take a lot of momentum for Bitcoin to do that. Currently, I am expecting Bitcoin to at least get a relief rally back to the 50W MA (yellow line) around 44k-48k before we dump down to the 200W MA. See related ideas below.
Thank you for reading my idea. Like this idea and follow me for more analysis like this. NFA . TAYOR. DYOR.
Follow me on my Twitter as well linked below.
Cheers,
Juvs
Thank you for considering reading my idea.
Before this, I had a lot of bullish analyses last year when we were at 69K but turns out to be a huge RSI bearish divergence. Please note that this is not a prediction that's going to happen in the next 6 months.
Zooming out of the charts to monthly timeframe, we can see that the MACD has reversed after we closed the January 2022 candle and possible marks the start of the bear market.
This is not 100% reliable as this is just a pattern that happened only 2 times but on a bigger timeframe. We can see the MACD Histogram that is in dark red from:
1. August 2014 - February 2015 (7 months)
2. July 2018 - January 2019 (7 months)
We can also see that on January 2015, we touched the 200 week moving average (200W MA - green line). Same with December 2018 as we touched the 200W MA. Basically, it touched the 200W MA 1 month before the last dark red on the MACD Histogram.
If we were to assume the pattern and apply it from today:
1. The MACD Histogram in dark red would also take 7 months (January 2022 - July 2022)
2. The price would bottom on the 200W MA estimated at around $19,000 - $21,000.
Lastly, could we reverse on the MACD indicator? Yes, but it would take a lot of momentum for Bitcoin to do that. Currently, I am expecting Bitcoin to at least get a relief rally back to the 50W MA (yellow line) around 44k-48k before we dump down to the 200W MA. See related ideas below.
Thank you for reading my idea. Like this idea and follow me for more analysis like this. NFA . TAYOR. DYOR.
Follow me on my Twitter as well linked below.
Cheers,
Juvs
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