BTCUSD DAILY CHART

8月17日

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZV0Pq5pq/

Thanks for reading,

I earlier posted the bitcoin 1HR, 4HR & bullish Weekly cup n handle formation on Weekly chart.

Here is the Daily timeframe. You can see the big green zone is a huge buy-order block but importantly at time of writing the current price is getting support right on the 200 EMA. I am thinking some bullish price-action returning to bitcoin & quite possibly this will start this coming Monday as I believe that the Gold price is a bit over-extended and over-bought.

Some further reading, here is a piece taken from an article by bankrate.com written on 31 July 2024 & their analysis on Bitcoin.

bankrate.com/investing/federal-reserve-impact-on-stocks-crypto-other-investments/

Be aware the article also talks of the possibility of a recession later in the year for the USA.

"How interest rates have affected crypto and commodities markets:

Two other major asset classes have had varied responses in the face of higher rates. While cryptocurrency prices plummeted along with other risky assets, many commodities spiked higher in early 2022, including oil, but many of those moves proved short-lived. With the rising Fed funds rate slowing and then pausing in 2023, both oil and crypto seem to have found some support. And now with lower rates in the offing, both have found an extra tailwind.

Cryptocurrency has often been touted as a cure-all for what ails you, whether that’s inflation, low interest rates, lack of purchasing power, devaluation of the dollar and so on. Those positives were easy to believe in as long as crypto was rising, seemingly regardless of other assets.

“The truth is that crypto prices have proven to be impacted by the same directional sentiment that impacts retail stock investors,” says Raju. “In general, high interest rates scare investors away from riskier investments like crypto, and the lowering of rates will be seen as a positive by the crypto investor community.”

Indeed, cryptocurrencies responded to reduced liquidity as did other risky assets, by falling when the Fed announced in November 2021 its intention to raise rates and then throughout 2022 as the Fed aggressively followed through. On top of that, the blow-ups of cryptocurrencies and exchanges such as FTX hammered traders’ confidence in these virtual assets.

But instability in the banking sector led many traders to bid up cryptocurrency, in the belief that the future path of rate increases would be less severe. And as 10-year Treasury rates peaked in October 2023 and then fell, riskier assets have risen, as the path to lower interest rates appeared clear.

However, other factors are also at play in the rise of cryptocurrency over the past year.

Spinelli points to the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs as a notable driver of crypto prices.

In early January, the SEC approved 11 asset managers to offer Bitcoin ETFs. The expectation of the approval helped the cryptocurrency finish 2023 strong, and then the inflows to the new ETFs powered the cryptocurrency to a new all-time high in March."


My analysis is that stocks, commodities including precious metals and cryptocurrency will see bullish price-action over at least the next 2 to 3 months as the USA finally moves on a lowering of interest rates, my feeling is that assets will be overbought later in 2024 & there will be a bigger correction than normal, but I would not like to make commentary or even like to think that there will be a recession in the USA. One would like to think that a lowering of interest rates and 2 or 3 reductions by year end will have the desired positive outcome for and across the US economy.

Cheers, Chris