6,650 the TP - 6,000 the true test

2018年5月29日

The price remains on a 1D Channel Down (RSI = 30.465, MACD = -379.200, BBP = -1259.5978) with Highs/Lows = -558.2957 suggesting that we are near a strong support. This is the 7,000 benchmark, which is broken will lead the price (aggressively according to February's 1D candle regressions) to 6,000. Remember that 1W is a Lower High bearish cycle pattern (Highs/Lows = -610.5745) and if 6,000 breaks its MA100 (5,552.0 - 4,378.40 will be compromised in a three month period). We personally consult the Monthly chart which is still bullish (RSI = 56.385) but has to make a neutral balance on this bear cycle before it starts the new bullish cycle (February - March 2019). The already neutral Highs/Lows = 0 and CCI = 38.6104 suggest that the MA20 period has to be covered = 4,883.40 - 5,821.0. So if 7,000 breaks, we TP = 6,652, and if 6,000 breaks, TP = 5,552.0. If the 7,000 benchmark holds then it is best to choose the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement point = 8,870 as a short entry. Always remember that on a bearish cycle such as this one (18 months projected duration, almost 6 gone) it is always safer to short every Lower High.