Did we hit the bottom at 7040? Or just an ABC correction?

2018年5月31日

Hey all, so my last idea update mentioned that we'd have several days of bouncing around between 7250 and 7650, where I then expected to lower to the next level of support around 6800-6900. But perhaps we have already hit the bottom at 7040. What do you think? That indecision actually took over a week and it appears that we have begin a reversal with an uptrend, marking 3 higher highs and 2 higher lows. However, if my original wave count was correct and the end of wave 5 hit at the 7040 low, it is possible to see that we could be in just an ABC reversal pattern. This would mean we will drop here again shortly down to the 6800-6900 level that I thought would happen 4-5 days ago. It just doesn't seem like the bulls are willing to go to that level.
On the big picture, the 7040 low didn't quite hit the bottom of the correction triangle formed from the previous lows at 6000 in Feb and 6400 in April, but it's close enough for me to think that we are now seeing a bounce off the bottom of the triangle (in pink) and we will continue upward.

We are going to hit a critical point in that large correction triangle in the next few weeks and then something major is going to happen...50-50 up or down????

I'm curious what do you all think?

2018年5月31日

ノート

Here's the zoomed out view of the large correction triangle. Also notice we've printed another bottom on the RSI at the same levels as the previous lows that indicate a reversal.

2018年5月31日

ノート

And I just entered another long position at 7500 expecting this bounce to get us to around 8800 by late June.

2018年6月1日

ノート

After this morning's drop, I took a look at the 15 minute chart, and even though we are still trading within the blue uptrend channel, my wave count feels more and more like we've been in a correction triangle that perhaps just ended. If this drop was the beginning of a downtrend impulse wave, I expect a retrace today and then another big drop.
But it is possible that we are still in the (d) wave of the correction pattern and have yet to determine which way the breakout will go. I'm leaning bearish at this point. How about you? What do you think?

2018年6月1日

ノート

Link to my new idea: