BTC | Let NDQ Go Bust!

アップデート済

Bitcooooooins... UP!

In the recent history, we have had two perma-bull trade-ables, NDQ and Bitcoin. No-one in their real mind would dare to short these 2 years ago... So what if, we could compare these two bulls? Who will survive in the years to come? Who is the record keeper? The answer is NOT as simple as it might seem. Read until the end to find out...

2022 will be marked as the worst year "ever" for equities (except The Great Depression of course). Money got much more precious last year compared to equities. Just by having money, you got "richer" last year. So compared to money, equities did get worse.

Items like Bitcoin suffered even worse. A 73% drop compared to SPX is a monumental way to break the crypto mania.

Bitcoin has been an over-leveraged, perma-bull trade-able item.
I don't know if it is a currency, a commodity or something else, so I call it a simple item.
The majority of Bitcoin's gains were thanks to derivatives (trading).

The same happens in Equities, but not to such an extent. NDQ is another perma-bull market full of stocks like AAPL and TSLA (everyones' favorites for some reason)

Bitcoin is on a whole new level of rapidness...

However, there is an exponential cousin to NDQ. That is SQQQ.

So how does it compare to NDQ? Since SQQQ is basically 1/QQQ, we will plot the QQQ*SQQQ chart to see the outcome.

This reminds me of the diminishing nature BTC_ADDRESSES showed.

We can raise SQQQ to the 0.2 exponent to bring it down to reality.

SQQQ is moving at the 5th exponent of QQQ. Incredible speeds really...

So how do these two lightnings (1/SQQQ and Bitcoin) compare??

I told you that the answer is not straight-forward.

And some short technical analysis:

This chart above describes the popular over-leveraged period when everyone traded Bitcoin.

There is a longer-term ticker showing the entire history of Bitoin ( INDEX:BTCUSD )
It shows us yet another perspective:

If these charts are true and breakout as intended, what could this mean for equities? Just how big of a bubble are equities in?

Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori

PS. The popular knowledge is not the truth, it is just a famous lie.

ノート

One note for this chart:

The grey chart calculates "real bitcoin supply" / "fake bitcoin supply"
The red/green chart calculates "fake ndq growth" / "real ndq growth"
Supply is the inverse of growth.

One correction to one of the above charts:
Since we don't have a Bitcoin in Circulation ticker in TradingView (if there is one please notify me), I should't have divided by M2SL when comparing NDQ. A fair division would be without M2SL, since we cannot divide by BTC-SL

The chart hit the golden ratio with an accuracy of 99.7%

ノート

This chart comes to validate SPY_Master's analysis.

His idea linked below was the inspiration for this analysis.

Bitcoin's Correlation to Tech Stocks About to Change?

ノート

Normalizing SQQQ on the pre-2020 period:

We get another comparison.

Is QQQ filling with derivatives with bull-flagging dynamics?

ノート

This is a chart I posted a while ago, supporting the bullish outlook for Bitcoin:

This was part of the following idea:

There is more evidence supporting this:

Let's see how this plays out...

ノート

Apple, the largest playa of Nasdaq, is facing serious issues...

Microsoft could lose up to 40% of it's dominance in Nasdaq.

KST provides a new way to analyze charts. It is an evolution of the RSI + Ribbon pair. I have tweaked the built-in KST and made it so that we can analyze it like I did with RSI.

ノート

Classical types of investment contain a mix of bonds and equities. This chart can be calculated by plotting SPX/Yields for example. To be more precise, one could use modified-yields instead.

An investment in Big Tech has little wiggle room...