ショート

Bitcoin is growing weaker

アップデート済

In a significant development overnight, Bitcoin plummeted below $29,000, marking a new low at $28,726. In the process, Bitcoin dropped below the 50-day SMA, which previously acted as a support (now it acts as a resistance). In addition to that, DM+ and DM- performed a bearish crossover on the daily time frame, and RSI, MACD, and Stochastic continued to develop bearish structures as well. We previously outlined these developments as ones strengthening the bearish case going forward. Now, we are paying close attention to the 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA, which are converging. If the shorter moving average crosses below the longer moving average, it will confirm a weak downtrend. As for our outlook on the price, it is highly possible that Bitcoin will continue lower, likely to the area around $27,000. If it manages to get there, then we will reassess our views.

Illustration 1.01

Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows indicate particular technical developments.

Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

ノート

Again, overnight, Bitcoin experienced volatile price action, briefly soaring above $30,000 on the news of MicroStrategy planning to buy more Bitcoin worth $750 million. However, the optimism did not last long, and Bitcoin gave up much of its gains while returning toward the $29,500 price tag. Interestingly, the move up was not accompanied by the increase in the number of Bitcoin addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC in the balance (though the number of addresses holding more than 100 BTC in the balance ticked up slightly in the past few days). That suggests to us that big players are still not stepping into the market and presumably waiting for a better bargain. As a result, we will continue to watch the technical indicators and other developments outlined in this and our previous article.

ノート

On-chain data suggests that large speculators are still not stepping into the market. Besides that, if the stock market continues to selloff, we can expect the same in the cryptocurrency market. Our view stays that Bitcoin is likely to continue lower to the area around $27,000. If it manages to get there, we will reassess the view.