Bitcoin FUD

FUD.

Good luck.

(I'm a student, DYOR)

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Discussion, charts, long or short, welcome - if anyone has the urge.

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"B waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional money (or both)... If the analyst can easily say to himself, "There is something wrong with this market," chances are it's a B wave. X waves and D waves in expanding triangles, both of which are corrective wave advances, have the same characteristics." pg.81: Wave Personality - Elliot Wave Principle. by Frost and Prechter.

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"The 'reaction swing' is a price correction within a trending market and it can be used as a timing tool for predicting future reversals in a price trend. If you can know the exact center of a cycle, you can look back at the beginning and then, based on this information, determine where the cycle will go in the future." pg.9: What Is a Reaction Swing? - Advanced Swing Trading. by John Crane.

In this instance: 5 - A = Action, A - B = Reaction Swing, B - C = Reaction. In completion this is a Reaction Cycle with symmetry mirrored through the B - C reaction swing. This symmetry considers the x axis - time, and thus a prediction of time and price is apparently possible.

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Interesting that the bearish phase lasted exactly 1 year: 17 Dec 2017 - 15 December 2018. Perhaps a reversal around 15 June to make a tidy 2:1 time ratio.

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This is TV's NVT ratio indicator that was created by Willy Woo for use with Bitcoin only. "NVT Ratio (Network Value to Transactions Ratio) is the ratio of the Market Cap divided by the volume transmitted by the blockchain." You can look Woo up on Twitter or his website to find out the specifics regarding how it works. Most importantly it appears to be a leading indicator and its available for use in TV. I have found it works well on the longer time frames D-M. This chart shows the Weekly. If one were to buy in the green areas and sell (perhaps sell, not go short due to price range of red areas) they would be doing more than ok. Interestingly one green area at the start of 2016 happens shortly after an SMMA D golden cross and would have made a excellent R:R entry.

Certainly an interesting and powerful indicator to explore.

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Doji on Weekly.

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Declining C waves are usually devastating in their destruction. It is during these declines that there is no place to hide except cash. The illusions held throughout A and B waves evaporate as fear takes over. C waves are persistent and broad. pg.83: Wave Personality - Elliot Wave Principle. by Frost and Prechter.

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0.382 hit - there or thereabouts

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Corrective structures tell us about total duration. Simple ABC zig-zag structures are simple largely because price can move without too much need for duration, but for longer durations more complex corrective structures can form along the x axis. In this context such a long coil and drop can provide an A wave, and the volatile movement upward - the B wave. If this is correct one can reasonably only expect another elongated structure that shares x + y axis symmetry with the A wave. As such we are probably about to realise a C wave of similar depth and duration to the A wave from ATH - 3.1k low from wherever the B comes to an end.

If this was now a bullish recovery perhaps one could expect a much shorter coiling and crash, or even no coil at all but a simpler zig zag to move price downward without concern for duration. But instead BTC had a long corrective structure, which will likely lead to another, perhaps topping out at 61.8%.

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A cat does not have a little trip, fall flat on its face and immediately remember how to fly. No, it must first crash and die... then learn to crawl, walk, ride a bike - before eventually learning to fly again and ascend to the heavens once again.

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Bitcoin closed 3 monthly candles for the first time. Looking bearish. Good spot Dacto

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50/200ma death cross incoming to perhaps consolidate 2nd bearish structure.

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Volatile beast, but uniform structures.

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However sloppy it gets, the key moments of price reversal have all occurred at 1/phi 0.618. Useful for future prediction, but for now this is a long and tedious corrective mess that I'll leave to the pros, shills and lemmings. Guess price may continue to respect 1/phi in correction and perhaps meander up to around yellow fib @ 8k before regressing lower. Waiting for sub 3k and not interested until then.

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Death cross

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A pint of your finest sanitiser says that Bitcoin will turn down with 0.618 fib around 8k.

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Didn't need any additional hand sanitiser anyhow - have plenty. BTC looking to test 10k again perhaps before rolling over again