In this idea, I identify what I call the 'Hidden' Death Cross & 'True' Golden Cross. They are the the cross of the weekly 50 SMA & 50 EMA. - With 8/8 historical cross cycles completed, this is statistically significant in the macro economic trend of Bitcoin and currently has a with 100% success rate. a. "Hidden Death Cross" consistently delivers a significant market contraction b. "True Golden Cross" consistently delivers a significant market expansion
This trend displays significant statistical probability, and while I propose we cannot expect future cycles to repeat past results, we can assume there is a high likely hood of the trend repeating in some form and used past results as guidelines for future performance.
Weekly "Hidden Death Cross" Data
5 Hidden Death Cross (HDC); 1. 26-Sep-2011: -60% 2. 07-Jul-2014: -73% 3. 28-May-2018: -62% 4. 24-Feb-2020: -61% 5. 30-Aug-2021: ....... 6. ....................... Success Rate: 100% Failure Rate: 0% Average Contraction: -64% 2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence): Min -57% / Max -71%
BTC Weekly "True Golden Cross" Data
4 True Golden Cross (TGC); 1. 16-Jul-2012: +16'890% 2. 20-Jul-2015: +7'192% 3. 29-Apr-2019: +179% 4. 03-Aug-2020: +531% 5. ...................... Success Rate: 100% Failure Rate: 0% Average Expansion: +6'198% 2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence): Min - / Max 15'000%
Comparison wit the famous Daily Death Cross & Golden Cross Trend
BTC Daily "Death Cross" Data
BTC Daily: 7 Death Cross (DC); 1. 10-Apr-2014: +56% 2. 07-Sep-2014: -69% 3. 15-Sep-2015: +23% 4. 04-Apr-2018: -60% 5. 22-Oct-2019: -29%% 6. 26-Mar-2020: +50% 7. 23-Jun-2021: -22% 8. ....................... Success Rate: 57% Failure Rate: 43% Average Contraction: -50% 2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence): Min -20% / Max -70%
BTC Daily "Golden Cross" Data
BTC Daily: 5 Golden Cross (DC); 1. 08-Apr-2012: +24'169% 2. 13-July-2014: -23% 3. 21-July-2015: -30% 4. 02-Nov-2015: +6722% 5. 25-Apr-2019: +163% 6. 17-Feb-2020: -62% 7. 23-May-2020: +643% 8. 15-Sep-2021: ....... 9. ........................ Success Rate: 57% Failure Rate: 43% Average Expansion: +7'924% 2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence): Min - / Max 21'000%
Additional Hidden Trend
Daily Death Cross & Golden Cross Triplets.
In addition to the standard crosses, we can identify a pattern of 3 crosses together;
1. Daily Death Cross, Golden Cross, Death Cross: This results in a bear market with a 100% success rate
2. Golden Cross, Death Cross, Golden Cross: This results in a bull market with 100% success rate
I will be posting on these trends more, since they are statistically significant and I believe will continue to display similar results, regardless of the FOMO or FUD that may be happening at the time.