BTCUSD: Bearish Formation Poised To Revisit 6K?

2018年8月27日

BTCUSD update: Price is having a tough time pushing through the 6800 level which can be interpreted as a sign of weakness. This market has been the most resilient and if it retraces it will likely take many of the alts below their support levels.

At S.C. we had a long position in BCH expecting it to outperform BTC during the recent squeeze attempt. Instead of outperforming it clearly demonstrated signs of relative weakness no different than ETH or LTC. So we chose to raise the stop and reduce the risk by more than 75%. The trade stopped out, but the loss was minimal. Even though it produced a negative outcome, the trade was good because we cut the risk while still giving the market a chance.

What people do not understand is we let the market dictate how to manage positions, not our feelings or opinions. With BTC potentially forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern, we will simply sit on the sidelines and wait for a more favorable setup.

If the recently established bullish trend line is compromised, price can retest the low 6Ks. If price closes below the 5800 level, that will activate the head and shoulders pattern. Since we only trade the long side of this market, there is nothing for us to do but watch.

The bullish argument is becoming less compelling, but IF the trend line holds, or price prints a reversal pattern around the 6200 area, that can present a possibility for a swing trade. All we can do is wait and see.

In summary, the head and shoulders pattern is generally a bearish sign BUT its general location is not a bearish area. This does remove some of the relevance of the pattern.

We also remind our followers at S.C., that identifying good trades is not just about candlesticks and chart patterns but also about abstract considerations like the probability of the general location. This is something we strongly consider which helped us capture a 10% profit in 6 days off of the recent low.

If the market retraces, we will continue to watch the price action around the 6K psychological support along with the levels of short interest. You don't make opportunities in a financial market, instead you wait for them to materialize. If you have a sound plan and a reasonable set of criteria, eventually the market will align itself.