#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update

17 時間前Good Day and I hope you are well.

bitcoin
Quote from last week:

comment: Doing the weekly chart this week. Clear contraction visible and there is no magic to see here. I won’t make up stuff where there is none. Market is clearly confused where it wants to go and no side has an advantage. The triangle will break out soon again and I can only see btc falling below 49000 if the broader markets weaken considerably.

comment: Bulls still not managed to get above 65000 and unless that changes, we are in an ascending triangle now. Trading range, ascending triangle, it does not matter, you trade them the same. Clear support and resistance, buy low and sell high until it stops working. I favor the bears to touch the lower trend line around the daily ema but as of now they are not doing enough and market has formed 4 consecutive doji’s. You don’t have to trade this. Wait for a better pattern.

current market cycle: trading range / ascending triangle

key levels: 49000 - 65000

bull case: Bulls need prices above 64500. That has not changed since last week. If they fail again, market will likely test down below 55000 again. If they could get it, market is free to trade above 68000 to test the bear trend line from the ath.
Invalidation is below 62400.

bear case: Bears want a pullback to test the lower bull channel trend line and daily ema around 61000 where I expect more buyers than sellers to appear. Market then probably has to move more sideways before we can get a breakout below the bull channel. This is a clear trading range for 2 months and odds favor the bears to stay below 65000 and get a pullback. Don’t over analyze 4 consecutive doji’s. Look at a higher time frame and get a sense of what the market is trying to do. Right now it’s trying higher again but failing. It can only go on for so long until one side give’s up.
Invalidation is above 64500.

outlook last week:

short term: Neutral. Under 60000 I slightly favor the bears to trade down to 55000 but need to see better selling than on Saturday/Sunday.

→ Last Sunday we traded around 59800 and now we are at 63400. Meh outlook. I changed it on Monday since bulls printed a strong bull bar above the pullback.

short term: Neutral. I become a bear once bears print below 62400. Max bullish above 65000 with follow through.

medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: If bears can close the bull gap for good, we could see 40000 this year. If not, more likely we will see 65000+ again. Right now we are in a 2 month trading range.

current swing trade: None

chart update: Added the bull channel, wave count and possible two legged correction.