Bitcoin - "A rally" in disguise
アップデート済
With the stock market rising more than 7% from its 2022 lows, cryptocurrencies also enjoy a time of relief. However, so far, Bitcoin's reaction has been relatively muted compared to U.S. market indices, reflecting a hesitation among market participants and their lack of appetite for risk assets.
We believe the current bounce-up in the price is once again merely “a rally” in disguise. In accordance with that, we expect the market sentiment to turn irrationally bullish for the short term, with many analysts rushing to forecast the market bottom and trend reversal on every front.
This phenomenon will further highlight the characteristic bear market instability in behavior and opinions among investors. However, we expect these same people to realize in early November 2022 that the FED is still pursuing its tightening path and not backing down, sparking panic and subsequent selling.
Despite that, in the short-term, we will pay close attention to the sloping resistance, price action, and volume. A breakout above the sloping resistance will bolster the bullish case in the short term; however, we do not expect it to impact the primary trend.
Therefore, we think there is no point in backtracking on our price targets of 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Moreover, our views are supported by fundamental factors concerning global recession, high inflation combined with economic tightening, and geopolitical issues.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and the short-term setup. A breakout above the sloping resistance will be bullish, while the inability of the price to break above this level will suggest otherwise. Therefore, we will pay close attention to this area.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
MACD points to the upside but stays in the bearish territory. RSI is neutral. Stochastic is rising, which is bullish. DM+ and DM- are close to performing a crossover; if successful, it will bolster the bullish case in the short term.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are neutral. MACD points to the upside but stays in the bearish zone. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
We believe the current bounce-up in the price is once again merely “a rally” in disguise. In accordance with that, we expect the market sentiment to turn irrationally bullish for the short term, with many analysts rushing to forecast the market bottom and trend reversal on every front.
This phenomenon will further highlight the characteristic bear market instability in behavior and opinions among investors. However, we expect these same people to realize in early November 2022 that the FED is still pursuing its tightening path and not backing down, sparking panic and subsequent selling.
Despite that, in the short-term, we will pay close attention to the sloping resistance, price action, and volume. A breakout above the sloping resistance will bolster the bullish case in the short term; however, we do not expect it to impact the primary trend.
Therefore, we think there is no point in backtracking on our price targets of 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Moreover, our views are supported by fundamental factors concerning global recession, high inflation combined with economic tightening, and geopolitical issues.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and the short-term setup. A breakout above the sloping resistance will be bullish, while the inability of the price to break above this level will suggest otherwise. Therefore, we will pay close attention to this area.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
MACD points to the upside but stays in the bearish territory. RSI is neutral. Stochastic is rising, which is bullish. DM+ and DM- are close to performing a crossover; if successful, it will bolster the bullish case in the short term.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are neutral. MACD points to the upside but stays in the bearish zone. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
トレード稼働中
The price failed to approach the resistance, bolstering the bearish case. トレード稼働中
We highlight similarities in the price structure between BTCUSD and XRPUSD. Indeed, we believe that XRPUSD is "frontrunning" (with this decline) other cryptocurrencies, which will follow soon in its footsteps.
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