Bitcoin Going up, Down and Up or Dump to 6200
アップデート済
The double bottom scenario from played out nicely from my updated Bitcoin analysis, bouncing up almost 700 points. It did however not really reached it's target and on top of that, it also took quite some time before getting there. The volume on the way up is also far from convincing. These factors make me think that there is still a good chance the correction is still not done.
As i showed in my ETH analysis, there is a very big neckline around the 230 which is almost sure to be a very important zone. So i expect some reaction to happen when it breaks. For Bitcoin, we can say this level is around 7500. This H&S is not a beauty, but it's definitely there. The position of the neckline is an important factor as well, maybe just as important as the shape of the pattern.
There is however a bullish backup plan for this bearish H&S pattern. I have described this many times already the past year or 2, each pattern can be changed into something else. With an H&S, actually a after a failed breakout of an H&S (inverse or normal, so goes for both ways), it can turn into a wedge. So in this case, even if we would drop the coming days, if could still turn bullish. Very difficult to know this upfront, when you know how strong a trend is, you can judge it much easier. Like i did 6 weeks ago, where H&S pattern were popping up all over the place, but i was confident (you can never be sure) that it was a fake one. I had several back then for thinking it, this time i can't say the same unfortunately.
1) We stay above 7750/7800 and continue to go up
2) We break the 7500 but with normal/low volume and slower movement and we find support in the 7000/7300 zone and we going to see a big bullish wedge.
3) We break the 7800ish and we see a fast drop (with good volume), maybe make like a small bear flag around the neckline and then we see a big fast dump to like 7000 with very high volume. If this happens, the H&S is most likely to be real and we could go towards the 6200ish target.
Now what can we expect:
As long as the 7800ish holds, it could mean this whole H&S pattern wont even be completed. So as long as we stay above that level, the bulls can choose to ignore this. In theory anything above 7450/7500 should tell us the same thing, i just personally favor bearish outcome a bit more when the 7800ish breaks. Let's assume the we go to 7500 and we break the neckline. There are a few factors that can help us determine which scenario is more likely to happen. I actually described most of the factors above already where volume and speed are the most important factors we need to look at.
Now even if this H&S plays out, it doesn't mean the bull trend is over. A correction to the 6000/6500 is IMO still a normal standard correction of the big rally we had the past months. Everyone who is screaming 3K or whatever, is simply guessing and making subjective assumptions. Just as i was bullish the first few months of 2019, i could not tell you if the rally would stop at 4600 or at the 5/6K levels. Again volume plays a big part in all of this. So i rather just take things step by step and go forward while things develop and hopefully getting signs in the meantime that can tell us what the next step will be. Also, the July 2018 fractal is still in full play as well. Yellow circle on the right is the position we are in now.
Please don't forget to like if you want to motivate me and get more updates :)
Previous analysis:
As i showed in my ETH analysis, there is a very big neckline around the 230 which is almost sure to be a very important zone. So i expect some reaction to happen when it breaks. For Bitcoin, we can say this level is around 7500. This H&S is not a beauty, but it's definitely there. The position of the neckline is an important factor as well, maybe just as important as the shape of the pattern.
There is however a bullish backup plan for this bearish H&S pattern. I have described this many times already the past year or 2, each pattern can be changed into something else. With an H&S, actually a after a failed breakout of an H&S (inverse or normal, so goes for both ways), it can turn into a wedge. So in this case, even if we would drop the coming days, if could still turn bullish. Very difficult to know this upfront, when you know how strong a trend is, you can judge it much easier. Like i did 6 weeks ago, where H&S pattern were popping up all over the place, but i was confident (you can never be sure) that it was a fake one. I had several back then for thinking it, this time i can't say the same unfortunately.
1) We stay above 7750/7800 and continue to go up
2) We break the 7500 but with normal/low volume and slower movement and we find support in the 7000/7300 zone and we going to see a big bullish wedge.
3) We break the 7800ish and we see a fast drop (with good volume), maybe make like a small bear flag around the neckline and then we see a big fast dump to like 7000 with very high volume. If this happens, the H&S is most likely to be real and we could go towards the 6200ish target.
Now what can we expect:
As long as the 7800ish holds, it could mean this whole H&S pattern wont even be completed. So as long as we stay above that level, the bulls can choose to ignore this. In theory anything above 7450/7500 should tell us the same thing, i just personally favor bearish outcome a bit more when the 7800ish breaks. Let's assume the we go to 7500 and we break the neckline. There are a few factors that can help us determine which scenario is more likely to happen. I actually described most of the factors above already where volume and speed are the most important factors we need to look at.
Now even if this H&S plays out, it doesn't mean the bull trend is over. A correction to the 6000/6500 is IMO still a normal standard correction of the big rally we had the past months. Everyone who is screaming 3K or whatever, is simply guessing and making subjective assumptions. Just as i was bullish the first few months of 2019, i could not tell you if the rally would stop at 4600 or at the 5/6K levels. Again volume plays a big part in all of this. So i rather just take things step by step and go forward while things develop and hopefully getting signs in the meantime that can tell us what the next step will be. Also, the July 2018 fractal is still in full play as well. Yellow circle on the right is the position we are in now.
Please don't forget to like if you want to motivate me and get more updates :)
Previous analysis:
ノート
New Bitcoin analysis:
ノート
New Litecoin analysis:Dangerous low volume rally
ノート
New BNB analysis:Short term bearish wedge, long term possible bull flag
ノート
Taking it's time but broke a small support now and from the looks of it, might be making a small bear flag. If it stays in the flag, chances are very big it will make another drop. If it crosses that red zone on the right, the bearish pressure might be gone for the short term at least. If we touch the 7500/450ish one more time, it will become very likely to see it break eventually. I don't think a rally will start when touching it again. So in other words, Bitcoin needs to make a higher low, otherwise the H&S or the Wedge version will play out.Have to say, not big volume yet, also not for alts. But think it wont happen until we see a break of 7500 or 8200
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