Okay so I also wanted to do an extra long term post as I haven't done one yet.
First, that cyan line? That's the meme triangle line, slightly adjusted given the time scale and greatly extended to show why I give it such a great importance - it extends all the way back to the ATH before the 2014 bear market. I've drawn red arrows where it was tested as resistance and then green arrows where we've found support from it. I expect it to return as resistance now.
Otherwise, I wanted to show what's happened previously when a long term parabolic advance gets violated (dotted yellow lines). Sample size is only N=1, but that's all we got. If we take the 2016 halvening as a significant event with a run-up beforehand as it begins getting priced in and pretend the 2020 one (green dotted line) will go similarly, we could possibly see something like the projected yellow dotted line.
I don't think it'll play out that way. Maybe the halvening gets priced in sooner or more accurately, resulting in a run-up sooner and muted bull market afterwards. Maybe it's already priced in. Who knows. The fact remains we've violated a parabolic advance and fallen below significant support - no two bear markets are ever exactly the same, but some form of rounded bottom wouldn't be surprising whether it bottoms at 1.5k, 2.5k, 4k, 5k, or even here at 6k.
I also really like jarederaj's observations on stability. I didn't go into it here as to not steal ideas or clutter the chart, but definitely check out his charts as well for long term views.
First, that cyan line? That's the meme triangle line, slightly adjusted given the time scale and greatly extended to show why I give it such a great importance - it extends all the way back to the ATH before the 2014 bear market. I've drawn red arrows where it was tested as resistance and then green arrows where we've found support from it. I expect it to return as resistance now.
Otherwise, I wanted to show what's happened previously when a long term parabolic advance gets violated (dotted yellow lines). Sample size is only N=1, but that's all we got. If we take the 2016 halvening as a significant event with a run-up beforehand as it begins getting priced in and pretend the 2020 one (green dotted line) will go similarly, we could possibly see something like the projected yellow dotted line.
I don't think it'll play out that way. Maybe the halvening gets priced in sooner or more accurately, resulting in a run-up sooner and muted bull market afterwards. Maybe it's already priced in. Who knows. The fact remains we've violated a parabolic advance and fallen below significant support - no two bear markets are ever exactly the same, but some form of rounded bottom wouldn't be surprising whether it bottoms at 1.5k, 2.5k, 4k, 5k, or even here at 6k.
I also really like jarederaj's observations on stability. I didn't go into it here as to not steal ideas or clutter the chart, but definitely check out his charts as well for long term views.