Bitcoin Trying to make a Daily Reversal after a Bear trap?
アップデート済
We had some good action 2 hours ago, where the price made a quick dump but got an even bigger push up. The volume on the way up was much higher as well, so chances are big a bear trap was set there. Also ETH' broke an important support it seemed but also jumped right back above again, also suggesting a bear trap.
The past days, i talked about expecting at least one more drop, but i did not know it it would be a very small one, like 50 points below the previous one or a big dump. It's clear it was the first one, but until now, also in the shape of a bear trap it seem. But bulls are most certainly not safe yet, for a bullish mid-term trend, they need to try and close the price above the 3700/3750 when the daily closes. If that would happen we would have:
- Bear trap
- Daily reversal
Both strong indicators. So far the volume is good/decent, but it needs to stay this high. Really want to see the volume candle be much bigger than it has been lately. Without volume, it will probably just be another game the market tries to do, to shake out both longs and shorts. On the right i have drawn a possible bull flag, but we really do need to see the price stay above the green zone. Preferably even above 3520/10, showing some fomo at this spot. For this bull flag it's the same as all bull flags the past 8 months or so, it should not take to much time. Because the longer it takes the bigger the chances become for a failing bull flag. What we also need to see is (if btc make another move up), is alts make an even bigger jump up with the second leg. If we see all of these ingredients play out, the chances will be very big that an important low has been set and that past 4/5 weeks have all just been one big correctional move and we will start to make another big leg up to the 4k or maybe even 5k levels. But today, actually the coming few hours, will be of the upmost importance for it, as described above. Best case, we do not see a big short squeeze happen, but we see a big high volume fight on the way up. With these big short squeezes, we see the price drop like 80% of the time again.
On the left we can also see a possible bullish wedge, but it's not a pretty one though. If we do see the bullish things play out like mentioned above, so a close above 3700, it could be a confirmation that this wedge is real. But anything below that red zone, remains bearish. All i hope for is, that we see high volume again. Because than we can trade this market with more confidence.
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Previous analysis:
The past days, i talked about expecting at least one more drop, but i did not know it it would be a very small one, like 50 points below the previous one or a big dump. It's clear it was the first one, but until now, also in the shape of a bear trap it seem. But bulls are most certainly not safe yet, for a bullish mid-term trend, they need to try and close the price above the 3700/3750 when the daily closes. If that would happen we would have:
- Bear trap
- Daily reversal
Both strong indicators. So far the volume is good/decent, but it needs to stay this high. Really want to see the volume candle be much bigger than it has been lately. Without volume, it will probably just be another game the market tries to do, to shake out both longs and shorts. On the right i have drawn a possible bull flag, but we really do need to see the price stay above the green zone. Preferably even above 3520/10, showing some fomo at this spot. For this bull flag it's the same as all bull flags the past 8 months or so, it should not take to much time. Because the longer it takes the bigger the chances become for a failing bull flag. What we also need to see is (if btc make another move up), is alts make an even bigger jump up with the second leg. If we see all of these ingredients play out, the chances will be very big that an important low has been set and that past 4/5 weeks have all just been one big correctional move and we will start to make another big leg up to the 4k or maybe even 5k levels. But today, actually the coming few hours, will be of the upmost importance for it, as described above. Best case, we do not see a big short squeeze happen, but we see a big high volume fight on the way up. With these big short squeezes, we see the price drop like 80% of the time again.
On the left we can also see a possible bullish wedge, but it's not a pretty one though. If we do see the bullish things play out like mentioned above, so a close above 3700, it could be a confirmation that this wedge is real. But anything below that red zone, remains bearish. All i hope for is, that we see high volume again. Because than we can trade this market with more confidence.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
ノート
Still looking good, volume is also still good, but needs to get better if we move further up. Bulls keep holding the levels, pushing slowly. Eth looks like a smaller triangle, if that one plays out and breaks up, we could see another wave up. Ideally before the daily close. But the past 6/7 months all the reversal possibilities got rejected an hour or 2 before the daily close. So if we do see that reversal candle today, I think it will be a very big signノート
New bitcoin analysis:
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