Bitcoin forming grand channel with 3 waves & 3 paradigm shifts?

2018年1月10日

This is mainly just for fun but outlines a possible scenario we could be in. When zooming out on the weekly chart, using the log scale, Bitcoin looks like it might be forming a master channel. Prices and positions of projected waves are just rough guides. The main thing to focus on is the paradigm shifts that accompany each grand wave within the channel.

MAJOR WAVE 1 - The $1000 paradigm
Cryptocurrencies are very new and unknown to most of the world. During this wave, Bitcoin went from sub $2 to over $1000 before crashing back down to $200 zone, along with a 2 year long consolidation of despair and uncertainty surrounding the tech. During this time, many people made and lost small fortunes. All those involved in this wave could be considered early innovators and tech nerds. Many of those who bought and held during this period, especially if bought below $10 are now the new whales and on track to becoming crypto billionaires. A real tangible transfer of wealth has begun and decentralisation is bursting onto the scene to disrupt everything.

MAJOR WAVE 2 - The $100,000 paradigm
We are currently in this wave. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are becoming more and more embedded in the minds of the general population. Still, anyone involved in crypto is still considered an "innovator" with a slow transition during this paradigm phase into "early adoption". Still a very small % of the world own crypto, perhaps 1-2% in total. Many people have heard of bitcoin, but very few understand it or even know where to start with it. The peak of this wave could hit the 6 figure+ mark, propelled by huge hysteria and FOMO buying. People can't ignore crypto any more at this point. Institutions are flooding in, technology is developing fast and more and more consumer-focused products are in development to bring this revolution to the masses. The correction after the peak of wave 2 could be very dramatic, there will be many people who lose fortunes, their homes and their life-savings, people will be in despair and depression about bitcoin, there will be period in increasing fear, uncertainty and doubt, driving the price back to the bottom of the grand channel, possibly as low as $10,000 - $20,000 (The previous wave corrected from $1000 down to $200 which was an equally insane drop).

MAJOR WAVE 3 - The $1,000,000 paradigm
After the depression dies down and hope begins to return to the market, Bitcoin will begin it's 3rd major cycle which signals the evolution into another new paradigm which will see the million dollar mindset become accepted by society. During this wave we see the true parabolic S curve adoption taking root as the technology matures, trust is developed, technical barriers are overcome and adoption rates hit 10% and upwards. Crypto is now cementing it's place as the new "norm" and the old financial systems begin to show cracks. More and more people wake up every day to the reality of our financial systems and the possibilities that there is another way to construct society and function together. The multiple billions of people in the world, who were previously excluded from financial service, are coming on board in their droves. The world is changing at an unprecedented rate, augmented by the coming of age of AI, machine learning, automation, robotics and the decentralised revolution. The million dollar paradigm is likely to be combined with a serious black swan event in the legacy system which results in the mass devaluation of the dollar and other currencies. Slowly, at this point, more and more people are moving towards a mindset of pricing first in BTC or whatever currency is dominating mass daily usage.