🅱️ Bitcoin Is The Dow Jones In 1968 | Elliot Wave Theory

2023年3月3日

Back in 1968 the two major proponents of the Elliot Wave theory concept where divided as to the wave count of the DJIA.

While AJ Frost would consider the 1966 peak as Wave B of an irregular top in a flat correction, Hamilton Bolton was looking at it as the 5th wave of a bullish impulse.

One thing is certain, while they disagreed on the count they both agreed that what should follow was a new bull-market regardless of the count and they were right.

We ended up with a triple zig-zag followed by a new bull-market:

We have the same situation today with Bitcoin, people are divided between the third and fifth waves.

One interpretation calls for the top to be April 2021 with the low in November 2022 being Wave C of a flat and Wave 4 of the impulse in a higher degree:

While some others are calling for new lows taking the November 2021 irregular top as Wave 5 of the bigger impulse:

Well, there is actually a big difference with the Dow Jones forecasters from the past.

While they had a different count as to the irregular top, both agreed that what would be now equivalent to the November 2022 low in Bitcoin was the bottom in the Dow Jones before a new major leg up or bull market, our Cryptocurrency analysts, some, are still divided between new lows and a new bull-market.

Now, let me offer you my count, it is pretty simple.

The 2017 peak is definitely the end of a major 5-up wave, no doubt about that, we can easily draw a 5-up wave pattern with multiple extensions.

What follows is a correction, you can draw it in any way you like and here we have an A-B-C or Zig-Zag from Dec. '17 to Dec. '18.

The next wave can be either an inverted Zig-Zag or another 5-up wave, makes no difference, from Dec. '18 through June '19.

This is followed by another correction ending in March 2020 and here a new 5-up wave pattern starts.

From March 2020 through April 2021 we have another impulse and April 2021 marks the orthodox end of this bull market.

What follows is a correction, classic EW theory and you can see it on this chart.

If you want to be conservative or lets just say not bullish, you can say that another correction can follow after the Nov. 2022 low, this is possible and you can draw an upward Zig-Zag or whatever you like, we can only really confirm the wave count in retrospect.

But, if you consider go past market action and the way Elliot Wave theory works, we are set for a new 5 waves up impulse.

Which is really just the fifth wave of a higher degree since the correction from April 2021 through November 2022 is only Wave 4, which tends to be complex, hard to read and long. We have all these characteristics here...

Bitcoin is going bullish... Can any Elliotter confirm/comment if I am right or wrong?

Namaste.

2023年3月4日

ノート

An alternative count would take the June 2022 low as the orthodox of the bear market.

What we are experiencing now is an inverted flat and the chart looks like this:

Must be a flat because wave "(B)" is already lower than the start of wave "(A)".
But even a Zig-zag or any type of correction would point towards higher prices.

That is if we look for an extended correction.
Will be interesting to see how it all develops.

I will do a full count from genesis next and see what we got.
Can get a better perspective by defining the waves of higher degrees.

2023年3月4日

ノート

Arguments based on the Elliot Wave Principle in favor to the end of the bear market.

In Elliot terms, a bear market develops in a series of three waves.

These three waves come in the form of corrections and can be labeled either a Zig-Zag or a Flat based on their structure.

A Zig-zag has a 5-3-5 structure while a Flat has 3-3-5 structure.

In a Zig-zag the top of Wave B is always lower than the start of Wave A.

While in a Flat the top of Wave B can be higher than the start of Wave A forming what is called an irregular top.

Now, how to determine if we are at the start of a new impulse move, bull market, or rather a bear market that is still developing?

If following the previous bull-market, from 2020 to 2021, if the wave structure produces a 5 wave down pattern we can say that this is just Wave A of a Zig-Zag.

Any upward move would be Wave B that would be followed by Wave C of a 5 sequence and thus end in a lower low.

But if we can easily define a 3 wave correction, Zig-zag or Flat, we can say the bear market is over based on Elliot Wave theory and a new impulse should start.

Here is the chart for Ethereum on a weekly basis:

What we have here is a clear 5 wave up pattern followed by a Flat correction, 3 waves in a 3-3-5 sequence.

According to Elliot, what follows is a new bullish impulse (5 waves up).

If instead of a flat we would see here a 5 wave down pattern, this could spell trouble for the bulls but this isn't the case.

The next chart is XRPUSDT, the same pattern.
We have a classic Zig-zag after the bull market.
This Zig-zag/correction in Elliot terms is simply the bear-market:

The same is true for Bitcoin. You cannot draw a 5-wave down pattern from the orthodox top nor from the unorthodox top, in fact, you can draw either a Flat or Zig-zag:

(1)

We can have a consolidation phase, extended corrections, double whatever, inverted something and what not but the Elliot Wave Theory is calling for a new bull market.

A 5 waves up pattern.

Namaste.

2023年3月20日

ノート

An alternative Elliot Wave count for the current move, different to what many people are posting.

You can count the initial 5 wave up pattern complete or the first and second waves with the third one starting on a higher degree:



After wave 3 there should be a correction relatively long, lasting weeks and then the final and fifth wave which is the speculative wave.

2023年3月20日

ノート

This is highly speculative and should only be taken as reference points as I only count waves in retrospect to know where we are at in the current move.

With that said, the current wave should go to about 32/33K and then a correction (wave iv) to around $25.

From here we get the final wave (wave V) that should send prices up in between 42/48K.



Again, I only use Elliot Wave in retrospect and only use other methods to define my projections and targets but here you have a count in accordance with all of Elliots rules.

Taking into consideration the proportion of the waves, time duration and Fibonacci sequences for the whole structure.

It matches my normal system, you can find the trade below to see the targets that I have for this current move:

$42,000 is the last target just not shared here but you can get an idea.

Thanks a lot for the support.

Namaste.

1月18日

トレード終了: 利益確定目標に到達

From here we get the final wave (wave V) that should send prices up in between 42/48K.

On and on and on...

Thanks a lot for your support.

Namaste.