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BTC a comprehensive analysis

melikatrader94の投稿

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6 日前

hello guys...
let's investigate about BTC through Elliot!
Wave 1 to Wave 4:

Wave 1 initiates the bullish trend.
Wave 2 consolidates into a flat or corrective pattern.
Wave 3 is extended, showing a strong upward trend (impulse).
Wave 4 forms a triangle or corrective structure, preparing for Wave 5.

as you know there are 3 common alternative waves 5 right now!

the first scenario is wave 5 be the %61 of wave 3! It means the current situation!

Conservative Target (96,598.96 - 0.618 Fibonacci Extension):
Analysis: Wave 5 terminates slightly above the end of Wave 3. This scenario suggests that Wave 5 could face resistance near the 0.618 Fibonacci extension and align with market exhaustion after an extended rally.
Outcome: A shorter rally indicates that market momentum may slow down significantly.

Likelihood: Low to Moderate
Why?
Wave 3 extension is significant in your chart, often a sign of a strong uptrend. Wave 5 typically equals or exceeds Wave 3, so a short Wave 5 is less common unless momentum is weak.
When is it likely?
If resistance is around $96,600, it is due to overbought conditions or lack of demand.
If Wave 5 follows a truncated structure (which happens in rare cases).

The second scenario is that wave 5 be as high as wave 3

Moderate Target (146,754.93 - Fibonacci 1.0 Extension):
Analysis: This scenario assumes Wave 5 reaches parity with Wave 1 and Wave 3 in terms of magnitude. It aligns with the 1.0 Fibonacci extension, a key projection level in Elliott Wave analysis.
Outcome: Suggests sustained bullish momentum, supported by volume and macroeconomic conditions.

Likelihood: High
Why?
Wave 5 extension parity with Wave 1 or Wave 3 is typical in Elliott Wave theory.
A target at the 1.0 Fibonacci level reflects a balance between bullish momentum and market saturation.
Cryptocurrency markets often respect Fibonacci levels, especially during trends.
External factors like increasing institutional adoption (e.g., Bitcoin ETFs) and positive sentiment around Bitcoin could support this scenario.
When is it likely?
If the broader macro trend supports continued momentum (e.g., dollar weakness, institutional inflows).
If the market exhibits sustained volume without becoming overheated.

and the final scenario

Aggressive Target (288,680.96 - 1.618 Fibonacci Extension):
Analysis: Wave 5 enters a parabolic phase, often seen in cryptocurrency markets during speculative mania. The target aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, indicating a highly extended rally fueled by exponential growth or hype.
Outcome: This could lead to market overvaluation, followed by a sharp corrective phase.

Likelihood: Moderate
Why?
While Bitcoin is known for its parabolic rallies, such an aggressive extension would require exceptional circumstances.
Potential drivers could include:
Rapid institutional adoption.
Major geopolitical instability driving demand for hard assets.
Speculative mania (e.g., retail FOMO, media hype).
However, achieving this target would likely trigger a significant correction afterward.
When is it likely?
If Bitcoin enters a speculative "blow-off top" phase like in late 2017 or 2021.
If external catalysts (e.g., Bitcoin halving effects, spot ETF approvals, mass adoption) align simultaneously.

Prepare for the moderate scenario ($146,754) but remain flexible. If the market displays speculative characteristics, the aggressive scenario ($288,680) becomes more probable. Conversely, signs of exhaustion at lower levels could limit the rally to $96,600.

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