Bitcoin BTC price, new FED rate and Powell's speech 31/07/24

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Today at 18.00 UTC , the Fed will announce a new rate, followed by Powell's speech.
At the very least, increased volatility is guaranteed for the evening, so hedge your positions and uses stop orders and stock up on popcorn 🍿
Trading with leverage during this period is not worth it.

🤫 96% for the rate to remain unchanged - 5.5%
👎 4% for a rate cut to 5.25% today)

🔼 A rate cut is definitely an unexpected positive and a very likely breakthrough of the price upwards, according to the 🐳 blue scenario.
🔽 Leaving the rate unchanged + Powell's standard comments: “the dynamics are good, but it's still far from the desired 2% inflation and blah blah blah... - this is a continuation of the correction of the price to $62000 according to the 💔 red scenario

So which scenario is closer to your heart: 🐳 or 💔 ? Write at comment

(50 🚀 and we will add BTC.D and USDT.D charts to this idea)

ノート

The main points of the speech by Fed Chairman J. Powell:

🟢 The rate remained at the current level of 5.50%, but there was already a discussion about cutting the rate among the Fed board members at this meeting

🟢 Delaying the rate cut could harm the economy

🟢 In September (namely, on September 18), the first interest rate cut may already be considered

🟢 In recent months, there has been some progress in achieving the inflation target (2% target, current 3%)

🟢 The latest inflation data came in below expectations, confirming that the trend is moving in the right direction

🟢 The number of key policy rate cuts this year will depend on inflation dynamics and labor market conditions

🟢 If the economy remains stable and inflation does not change, the Fed can maintain rates at the current level for as long as necessary

🚨 In the end, the speech was neutral to positive and did not bring any surprises. For risky assets, this is a positive signal for the next month and a half.

➕ The biggest optimists expect as many as 3 rate cuts by the end of 2024: 18.09 - 07.11 - 18.12.
➕ Inflation is guaranteed to decline by at least 0.7% by mid-September, as it grew by that much in July-September 2023.
➖ Iran promises to attack Israel again. "Market curators" can play this off with an "expected-unexpected" decline, as they did on April 12-13, 2024.

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What do you think, is it time for the BTC price to try to grow according to the red scenario, or is there another update of the lows ahead?

By the way, we only need 15 🚀 more and we will update the idea with BTC.D and USDT.D charts that will show when altcoins start breathing!)

ノート

We want to believe that this is the final "squeeze of the altcoins".

The upward trend of BTC.D dominance is "losing its tone" and is starting to turn towards down

There is still 3% to the top of the channel.
The final squeeze is total fear and disappointment in the market and chance to change the trend

🤯But Mercury retrograde starts on Monday!)
We'll see - we'll see🍿

ノート

The has reached the critical point of 5.44.
From here, there is a good chance that the index will start moving downward by mid-September.
The critical level is 4.85

When #USDT.D goes down, it allows altcoins to "breathe" and vice versa.