To maintain the uptrend,it needs to be supported around 61099.25

9月22日

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I'm publishing in advance because I have a schedule.

I will explain the new 1W chart and 1D chart as soon as the schedule is over.

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Since I have updated the necessary information for day trading, I will often explain the trading method for day trading.

(BTCUSDT.P 1h chart)


It is expected that volatility will occur as the 5EMA line of the 1D chart is touched.

Accordingly, if it falls below the 5EMA of the 1D chart, the key is whether it can receive support near 61149.5.

Since the M-Signal of the 1D chart and the M-Signal of the 1W chart are passing near 60651.2, I think it is a section that must receive support to start an uptrend.

- ADX is below 20.
- Since OBV is converging, there is a high possibility that a trend will be formed if it breaks through the low line (LL) or high line (HH) soon.

- You should check whether the StochRSI indicator rises in the oversold section and shows an uptrend with StochRSI > StochRSI EMA.

Since the trend strength has weakened as ADX falls below 25, there is a high possibility that a box section will be formed.

Therefore, you should check which section the box section is formed in and think about whether to proceed with a trade within the box section.

However, as I mentioned earlier, if you touch the 5EMA of the 1D chart, ADX can rise above 25, so you need to check what kind of movement it shows at that time.

The right time to proceed with a buy (LONG) is when it is supported and rising near the HA-Low indicator.

At this time, ADX should be rising above 25 and OBV should be rising along the high point line (HH).

The right time to proceed with a sell (SHORT) is when it is resisted and falling near the HA-HIgh indicator.

At this time, ADX should be rising above 25 and OBV should be falling along the low point line (LL).

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(BTCUSDT 1M chart)

The key is whether it can be supported near the 2nd section and rise to the 1st section.

To do that
- ADX must be maintained above 25 or show an upward trend.
- OBV must show an upward trend along the high point line (HH).
- StochRSI must change to a state where it is > StochRSI EMA and show an upward trend.

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(1W chart)

The formula of the StochRSI indicator included in the TS-BW DMI indicator has changed, creating a different trend line than the previous idea.

Therefore, we should check the movement when a new candle is created.


Looking at the TS-BW DMI indicator,
- StochRSI appears to have changed to an oversold zone and StochRSI > StochRSI EMA.
- We should check if ADX can be maintained above 25.
A decline in ADX means that the trend strength is weakening.


If you look at the OBV indicator, you can see that OBV is converging.

Accordingly, you need to check whether it can maintain the uptrend by rising above the high point line (HH).

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(1D chart)

The trend line has changed, and the next volatility period has changed from around October 7 to around October 11.

- ADX is below 25.
- OBV is showing signs of breaking out of the high point line and then entering within the high point line.
- StochRSI indicator is showing signs of changing the trend in the overbought zone.

It is judged that it is not easy to maintain the uptrend in the current state.

Accordingly, the key is whether it can receive support around 63118.62-64000.0.

If not, and it falls, it is important to see if it can be supported around 61099.25.

If the price is maintained above 61099.25, I think it will meet the conditions to start an uptrend because the M-Signal on the 1D chart > M-Signal on the 1W chart > M-Signal on the 1M chart.

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Have a good time.
Thank you.

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- ​​Big picture

It is expected that a full-scale uptrend will start when it rises above 29K.

The section expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K.

#BTCUSD 12M

1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting)
5th: 178910.15

These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future.
We need to check if these points can be broken upward.

We need to check the movement when this section is touched because I think a new trend can be created in the overshooting section.

#BTCUSD 1M

If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55

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9月23日

ノート

#BTCUSDT 1D

Even though a new candle has been created, there is still no change in movement.

In other words, the power to maintain the trend is weakening.

Therefore, I think it is important to see whether it can be supported and rise around 63118.62-64000.0.

#BTCUSDT.P 1h

As a new week began, it touched the 5EMA of the 1D chart and volatility occurred.

However, since the power to maintain the trend is weak, it seems that it is not going far beyond the box section.

Therefore, even if ADX rises above 25 or OBV does not remain above the high line, it is expected to return to the original price range even if it rises.

#BTCUSDT.P 15m

On the 15m chart, it touches HA-Low and HA-High and is located near the middle, so I think the trend has been reset.

Therefore, it seems possible that a box section will be formed within the HA-Low ~ HA-High section.

However, since there is movement near the 5EMA of the 1D chart, there is a high possibility that volatility will occur again.

At this time, it is necessary to check whether a box section is formed around 61149.5 or around 63864.2-643000 based on the 62766.0-63088.3 section.

9月23日

ノート

The flow of funds seems to be good, but BTC seems weak.


Therefore, we need to check if ADX is showing an upward trend when it rises above 64000.0.

Although OBV is rising above the high line and maintaining it, the overall trend is still down.

Since the buying force is interpreted to be increasing only when OBV rises above 0, the key is whether the upward trend can continue.

However, since the StochRSI indicator is forming a double top, it seems that the high point section is almost complete.

Therefore, it is important to know how to initialize StochRSI when it rises above 64000.0.

The meaning of the initialization of StochRSI is that it is currently in the overbought zone, so if it touches the oversold zone, it means that StochRSI is initialized.

If it fails to initialize, I think that the area around 65920.1-67614.25 is likely to be a strong resistance zone.

If it receives support near 61099.25 and rises, you can check if StochRSI is initialized, and if it is initialized, you can think of it as the bottom of the pullback pattern and proceed with a purchase.

9月23日

ノート

The support and resistance zones on the BTCUSDT chart are 63118.62-64000.0, and on the BTCUSDT.P chart, 63864.2-64300.0.

The maximum rise section is
BTCUSDT: 65920.71-67614.25
BTCUSDT.P: 65922.3-67612.8
I expect that there is a high possibility of resistance in the above section.

Just because it falls after receiving resistance does not mean that it will fall to around 42K.

The maximum fall section is expected to be around the M-Signal of the 1M chart.

Currently, the M-Signal of the 1M chart is rising around 52K.

9月23日

ノート

#BTCUSDT.P 1D

Conditions for additional uptrend
- Check if ADX rises above 25
- Check if OBV rises along the High Line
- Check if StochRSI remains in the overbought zone

#1h

Currently forming a box zone around 62766.0-64300.0.

Volatility is expected to occur again soon as it touches the 5EMA of the 1D chart.

At this time,
- ADX rises above 25
- OBV rises along the High Line
- StochRSI > StochRSI EMA remains
If the above conditions are met, it is expected to rise above 64300.0 again.

Then, it is likely to lead to an attempt to rise to around 65922.3-67612.8.

If not, even if it rises, it will fall again in the previous flow.

In the current situation
- ADX remains below 25
- OBV falls below the low line
- StochRSI indicator remains as StochRSI < StochRSI EMA
If the above conditions are met, it is highly likely to fall below the 5EMA of the 1D chart.

Then, the key is whether there is support near 60651.2-61149.5.

9月24日

ノート

It is difficult to judge the situation by looking at multiple indicators.

So, I changed it to display DMI and OBV together.

Since trading must be done in real time, it is expected that it will be possible to make an intuitive judgment.