Need to check in which direction it deviates based on 66.4K-69K

3月17日

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(BTCUSDT 1M chart)

Since the 67K-69K section is located as shown in the picture, I believe it corresponds to the psychological resistance section.

Therefore, if support is reached around 67K-69K, it is expected to lead to a further rise.

If not, and it falls, you should check for support around 56K-61K.


The HA RSI indicator is an indicator created based on the closing price of Heikin Ashi.

Therefore, when the price falls, the HA RSI indicator may fall from the overbought range and a new HA-HIgh indicator may be created.

If a new HA-High indicator is created, the important thing is whether it can be supported around it.


(1W chart)

The key is whether the price can be maintained by rising above 69K.

If that happens, it is expected to rise to the next target of 1.618 (88913.24).


(1D chart)

In order to continue the upward trend, it must eventually rise above 70231.38.

Accordingly, the key is whether it can receive support and rise around 69K-70.2K.


Because the MS-Signal indicator was touching and rising, the area around 66.4K was the first buying period.

The second buying time is when it shows support around 70.2K, as mentioned above.


It was expected that we would be able to find out what direction the trend would take from March 16th to 18th.

Accordingly, you need to check in which direction it deviates based on the 66.4K-69K section.


The next period of volatility is around March 31st.

Therefore, it is expected that the trend created will accelerate or a major reversal will occur around March 17th.

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I think it is risky to forecast the coin market trend only through BTC charts.

Therefore, I think we should also know the movement of coin market funds.

As an individual trader, it is quite difficult to know the financial situation of the coin market.

I think you can refer to the USDT and USDC charts to understand the trend of funds, even if it is limited.

(USDT chart)


(USDC chart)


Funds flow into or out of the coin market through USDT or USDC.

This is because in order to trade in the coin market, you need funds to form a trading pair.

I think most trading is taking place in the USDT market.

Therefore, it can be said that USDT's movement has a great influence on the coin market.


If you interpret the USDT chart or USDC chart considering this situation,

- The occurrence of a gap can be seen as the basis for funds flowing into or out of the coin market.

- Candlesticks on the USDT chart or USDC chart can be seen as expressing increases and decreases due to trading.

Therefore, if USDT does not show a downward trend in the gap, it is highly likely that the coin market will maintain an upward trend due to the funds flowing into the coin market.


(USDT.D chart)

In that sense, I think the movement of USDT dominance is a chart that shows the funding trend in the actual coin market.

As long as USDT dominance does not rise above 4.97, I think the coin market is likely to remain bullish.

Therefore, if USDT dominance rises above 4.97 and USDT begins to show a downward trend, I think it is highly likely that the coin market is in a downward trend.


If you think you have found such an important point or section, you need a trading strategy that matches the current trend until you break away from that point or section.


(BTC.D chart)

I think this bull market is centered around BTC or ETH.

Accordingly, I believe that most altcoins are not showing a significant increase.

Although, I believe that BTC dominance is currently maintained at the current level due to the rise of several coins (tokens).


If BTC dominance does not fall below 50, there is a high possibility that there will be a large decline due to the decline of BTC, so caution is required when trading.

-----------------------------------

In summary, the decline in BTC provides a buying opportunity until USDT switches to a gap decline.


Have a good time.
thank you

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- The big picture

The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.

This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.


#BTCUSD 12M

1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15

These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.

Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting area, you should check the movement when this area is touched.


If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55

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3月18日

ノート

(BTCUSDT 1W chart)

A new candle has been created.

The StochRSI indicator is showing a downward trend.

However, since the StochRSI indicator is located in the overbought zone, the strength of the rise is strong.

Accordingly, unless the StochRSI indicator falls from the overbought zone and converts to StochRSI < StochRSI EMA, it is likely to maintain an upward trend.

Considering the above movements, the 66401.82 point is expected to be an important support point.


Additionally, when the BW indicator included in the TS-BW secondary indicator shows a decline from the highest point of the overbought zone, it is displayed on the price chart to check where the BW indicator point is created.

Because support at that point is likely to be the trigger for the trade.

3月18日

ノート

(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

It is unable to break out of the 66.4K-69K range and is showing sideways movements.

When it is showing support in this psychological resistance zone, the BW indicator is sideways in the overbought zone and the StochRSI indicator rises in the oversold zone and is expected to rise above 69K if it converts to StochRSI > StochRSI EMA.

If the BW indicator falls from the overbought range or the StochRSI indicator fails to escape from the oversold range, it is expected to fall below 66.4K.


The BW indicator is a composite indicator of MACD, StochRSI, CCI, superTrend, and PVT indicators.

Since the StochRSI indicator is displayed separately, you can see why the BW indicator is located one notch below the high point.

Therefore, in addition to the StochRSI indicator, MACD, CCI, superTrend, and PVT indicators are all maintaining an upward trend, so it should be interpreted that BTC is likely to rise.


The next period of volatility will be around March 31 (March 30-April 1).

3月19日

ノート

(XRPUSDT.P 1D chart)

The StochRSI indicator is rising, showing that it is trying to break out of the oversold range.

When StochRSI > StochRSI EMA is converted, it is necessary to check whether it can be supported and rise near the HA-High indicator.

Since 5EMA is located in the 0.6353-0.6408 range, the key is whether it can rise and receive support around 0.6353-0.6408.


If it falls, we need to check for support around 0.6236.


I think there will be many coins (tokens) that look like this in the future.

Most of the coins (tokens) that rise in this way correspond to the buying period, so it is recommended to carefully observe the movements of the coins (tokens) of interest.

3月19日

ノート

(SOLUSDT.P 1D chart)

SOL is one of many coins set to rise.

Currently, the StochRSI indicator has fallen into the overbought zone and has fallen near the midpoint.

Accordingly, we can see that selling pressure is increasing.

If the StochRSI indicator shows a bullish reversal near the midpoint, you should touch the 5EMA line and see if it is about to rise.

This is because the area around the midpoint of the StochRSI indicator is an area where volatility can occur, so a trend reversal can occur at any time.


If the StochRSI indicator falls below the midpoint, further declines are likely, as the strength of the decline begins to get stronger.

Accordingly, we need to check if there is support around 179.860.

If the StochRSI indicator falls into the oversold area and shows support near the MS-Signal indicator, there is a possibility that the trend will change, so you should keep a close eye on the movement.

Therefore, if it touches around 166 and rises, it is time to buy.


Therefore, it is expected that it will take some more time for SOL to rise.

3月19日

ノート

We need to see if the price can sustain itself by rising above 65625.0.

3月19日

ノート

Since it has fallen below 66.4K, if it does not rise above 66.4K again, it is likely to turn into a short-term downward trend.

The time to buy will be when the StochRSI indicator leaves the oversold range and StochRSI > StochRSI EMA.

At this time, you need to check at what point you receive support.


If it falls below 63K, the support zone is expected to be around 59K (56K-61K).



Since funds are still flowing into the coin market, I think this drop is likely to be a buying opportunity.

Therefore, when the price is below the MS-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, you should not forget that buying is possible when there is a rising candle, and check which point it broke upward and whether it is supported at that point.

3月19日

ノート

(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

As it falls below 66.4K and below the MS-Signal indicator, the possibility of a short-term downward trend increases.

Accordingly, the key is whether it can rise to the 66.4K-69K range or higher by around March 31st, the next volatility period.

If not, it is expected to fall to around 59K (56K-61K).


Currently, the HA-Low indicator is formed at 26151.99.


If it falls to around 59K (56K-61K) this time, there is a possibility that it will touch again for the first time since September-October 2023, when it last broke out of the HA-Low indicator and its box section.

This means that the indicator has been initialized.

Therefore, if a new HA-Low indicator is created due to this downward trend, whether or not there is support around it will be a very important issue.


Since the HA-Low indicator is an indicator created during the low point, receiving support near the HA-Low indicator means that it is time to buy.

However, if it falls after resistance from the HA-Low indicator, it means there is a possibility of creating a new low, so if the price rises beyond the HA-Low indicator and the price cannot be maintained, there is a high possibility that a cascading decline will occur.

Therefore, the creation of the HA-Low indicator means that a new challenge has begun.

After the HA-Low indicator is created, it is recommended to create a trading strategy by checking the formation of the box section of the HA-Low indicator and seeing whether it rises above the top of the box section or falls below the bottom.


The current movement is likely to be a short-term downtrend.

However, if it falls below 53K, there is a possibility that it will turn into a mid-term downward trend and record a larger decline.

Therefore, we need to check the movement around 59K (56K-61K) or the HA-Low indicator and create a trading strategy.


I said that the trend will be formed depending on which direction it deviates from the 66.4K-69K section.

However, I don’t think it would have been easy to respond.

Now that it has fallen below the MS-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, there is a high possibility that the MS-Signal indicator will act as resistance. Therefore, if it fails to rise above the MS-Signal indicator when it rebounds, it is necessary to sell it in installments to secure funds to purchase at a better price. do.

Therefore, if it rises near the MS-Signal indicator and then falls below 63660.11, I think it would be a good idea to secure funds by selling it in installments.

If possible, I think selling when the price is on an upward candle will be a better decision in terms of the next response.

We hope that you will respond well to the next volatility period around March 31st (March 30th - April 1st) and achieve good results.




Due to this short-term downward trend, funds are showing an inflow into the coin market.

Accordingly, I think the coin market is likely to maintain an upward trend.

We must keep this in mind and create a trading strategy.

3月19日

ノート

Important support and resistance points are listed below.

1. 66401.82-69000

2. MS-Signal on 1D chart (M-Signal on 1D chart) indicator

3. 63660.11

4. 56K-61K

5. 53256.44


1. 66401.82-69000: Zone that needs to break upward to continue the upward trend

2. MS-Signal on 1D chart (M-Signal on 1D chart) indicator: An indicator that must be broken to return to a short-term uptrend. If the breakout fails, it is time to sell in installments.

3. 63660.11: Stop loss (split sell) point when it rises above 63660.11 and then falls again.

4. 56K-61K: A section that is likely to be the end point of a short-term downtrend. Therefore, this is a section where there is a high possibility of up and down shaking.

5. 53256.44: A point that is likely to turn into a mid-term downtrend if it falls below 53256.44. Therefore, from the current point of view, it is a strong support zone.

3月20日

ノート

(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

It touched around 61202.17 and rose to the 66.4K-69K range.

Just as it was not possible to respond when it fell below 66401.82, I think it would not have been easy to respond to this rise.

If this movement lowers the average purchase price or increases the quantity held, it can be said that a good opportunity has been taken.


The most important thing when trading based on price movements are the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.

Therefore, no matter what chart analysis technique you use to create a trading strategy, you must be aware that ultimately nothing can be done without support and resistance points.

How to proceed with split trading when the support and resistance points are touched is the key to creating a trading strategy.


Accordingly, if it falls below 66401.82 and shows resistance, it is recommended to secure a certain amount of cash by selling it in installments.

The MS-Signal (M-Signal) indicator on the 1D chart is located around 66401.82, so it is judged to be resistance when it falls below the MS-Signal indicator and the MS-Signal indicator switches to a downward sign.


Since the HA-High indicator on the 1D chart is located at the 70231.38 point, it is expected to show an upward trend only when it receives support in the 66.4K-69K range and rises above 70231.38 to maintain the price.

Therefore, you can proceed with buying depending on whether there is support around 66401.82.


Since the BW indicator showed a decline in the overbought zone, we need to check whether this rise causes it to rise back to the overbought zone.

3月20日

ノート

(ETHUSDT 1D chart)

The MS-Signal indicator has switched to a bearish sign.

Accordingly, the key is whether the price can be maintained by rising above 0.618 (3548.07).

If this is not the case and it shows resistance, it is likely to lead to a further decline.


If a further decline occurs, it is highly likely that a new HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart will be created.

If the HA-Low indicator is created, the important thing is whether it receives support around it.


The 3321.30 point is the HA-High indicator point on the 1M chart, so if the price is maintained above this point, it is expected to eventually continue its upward trend, so you should consider how to lower the average purchase price or increase the quantity held.

3月22日

ノート

BTC is located in a complex and unpredictable area.

As the width of the MS-Signal indicator is shrinking, it looks like it will soon switch to a downward trend, making me think that it will switch to a short-term downward trend soon.

Since it is located near the bottom point of the 65600.0-72419.71 section, which is the box section of the HA-High indicator, the key is whether it can receive support and rise around 65600.0.

If it fails to rise above 66401.82, caution is needed as it may lead to further decline.

You should check the movement for at least 1 to 3 days to find out whether you are receiving support or resistance.

It may spike or plummet while you're at it, but most of the time you'll be able to see the move before it happens.


The BW indicator is showing an upward trend.

However, since the StochRSI indicator has not yet risen above the midpoint, it will show a strong upward trend if the StochRSI indicator rises above the midpoint.

Currently, the StochRSI indicator has risen above 30, and since StochRSI > StochRSI EMA, the possibility of an upward rise is increasing.

Therefore, it is important to be able to receive support in the 65600.0-66401.82 range.




Although the price is falling because someone is selling, funds are continuously flowing into the coin market.

Therefore, we need to think about how we can lower the average purchase price and how we can increase the quantity held.

3月22日

ノート

(BTCUSDT 1M chart)

The upper section of the box section of the HA-HIgh indicator is 59053.55-64000.0.

Accordingly, I think it is highly likely that the upward trend will continue if the price is maintained above 59053.55.

Therefore, the area between 0.886 (56090.42) and 1 (61202.17) corresponds to an important support and resistance area.


In the big picture, if it falls below 0.886 (56090.42), there is a possibility that it will fall to around 0.618 (44073.33).

Since the StochRSI indicator is located at the highest point, if the current candle closes downward, the StochRSI indicator is expected to turn downward.

If it shows this kind of movement and falls below 0.886 (56090.42), I think it is a good idea to sell it in installments to secure a profit.


(1W chart)

The StochRSI indicator and the StochRSI EMA indicator are showing signs of crossing.

Accordingly, there is a possibility that StochRSI < StochRSI EMA when next week's candle is created.

In this situation, I think there is a high possibility that volatility will occur if the HA 5EMA indicator or the area around 59055.95 is touched.

If there is a rebound with this volatility, the key is whether the price can be maintained by rising above 64000.0.

If not, and it falls, you should check if it is supported around 56950.56.

If it falls below 53256.64 and shows resistance, it is likely to turn into a downward trend in the mid-term, so you should think about a response plan.

Therefore, we need to make sure that we can rise along the important upward channel.


(1D chart)

The BW indicator is showing signs of decline.

Accordingly, the key is whether the price can be maintained by rising above 64000.0.

Otherwise, if it falls below 1 (61202.17), caution is needed as the BW indicator may fall below the midpoint and turn into a downward trend.

Ultimately, if it falls below the MS-Signal indicator and shows resistance, and the MS-Signal indicator turns downward, you should think that it has turned into a short-term downtrend and revise your trading strategy.


If it falls to the 56K-61K range, there is a possibility that a new HA-Low indicator will be created.

At this time, it is important to receive support from the HA-Low indicator and whether it can rise.

Since the HA-Low indicator is an indicator created during the low point, receiving support from the HA-Low indicator means that a bottom has been formed.

Conversely, if there is resistance from the HA-Low indicator, it means that there is a high possibility of hitting a new low.

In this sense, the 56K-61K section can be said to be an important support and resistance section.

3月23日

ノート

(BTCUSD 12M chart)

Regardless of whether the current price rises or falls, it is expected to eventually rise by more than 130K by 2025.

Therefore, we expect to see a significant upward trend starting from this BTC halving.

I believe that profiting from short waves is a smart trading method that allows you to earn steady profits through consistent trading.

However, I think it is important to follow the trend of the big picture with BTC from a long-term investment perspective.

Although I am posting analysis from a short-term perspective, I believe that the upward trend will eventually continue following the flow of the big picture.

3月24日

ノート

The BTCUSD chart is an INDEX chart from TradingView.

Therefore, I think that a more accurate flow can be seen when doing a comprehensive analysis.


(BTCUSD 4h chart)

On October 16, 2023, it continued its upward trend by forming M-Signal on the 1D chart > M-Signal on the 1W chart > M-Signal on the 1M chart.

Meanwhile, between January 14 and 29, 2024, the 5EMA on the 1D chart and the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart intersected, but continued to rise again.


On March 23, again, 5EMA on the 1D chart < M-Signal on the 1D chart.

Accordingly, you need to check whether it will be like section A or section B.


(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

The key is whether it can receive support around 64005.20 and rise above 66354.41.

If not, you should check for support around 59K (56K-61K).

Since the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart is currently located around 0.786 (51776.37), it will soon rise to around 59K (56K-61K).

At this time, I think the upward trend will continue only when it receives support and rises near the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.

If not, a big decline is expected.

3月24日

ノート

(BTCUSDT 1W chart)

The MS-Signal (M-Signal on 1W chart) indicator is rising around 53.256.64.

Accordingly, it is expected that the upward trend will continue only if the price is maintained above the important upward channel.


It touches around 59K (56K-61K) and is rising around 66401.82.

The key is whether it can receive support around 66401.82 and rise above 69K.


The StochRSI indicator has turned downward, but it is still in the overbought zone, so you can see that the strength of the uptrend is strong.

Therefore, when the StochRSI indicator falls in the overbought zone or when StochRSI < StochRSI EMA, you need to check at what point there is resistance.

If you see resistance, it is a good idea to prepare for a decline by selling in installments.


BTC's sideways and box ranges are approximately 20%.

Therefore, trading sideways and box sections below the 1D chart forces you to keep looking at the chart.


(1D chart)

Therefore, if possible, it is recommended to find the box section on the 1D chart and then proceed with trading by checking the detailed movements accordingly on the lower time frame chart of the 1D chart.


The important support and resistance area is 59K (56K-61K).

Therefore, if it falls below this range, it is expected that there will be a significant change in the trend.

If the price is maintained above this range, there is a high possibility that the upward trend will continue, but since it is located near the new high (ATH), caution is required when trading.

Therefore, when the price eventually rises above the 69K-70K range and shows support, it is expected that the buying trend will increase strongly.


The StochRSI indicator is showing signs of rising from the oversold range.

Additionally, since StochRSI > StochRSI EMA has risen, the likelihood of continuing the upward trend has increased.

Therefore, the key is whether it will rise above 69K and continue its upward trend, or whether it will face resistance and decline around 69K.


(BTCUSD 4h chart)

I think it would be a good idea to check the picture I mentioned in the previous update to see which of section A or B it corresponds to.

(1D chart)



In any case, the next period of volatility for BTC is expected to be around March 31 (March 30-April 1).