BTC Prj. 2019.P03E03, Ranging to a bullish pattern
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Observations:
> BTC sticking solidly to fib levels on the most part
> What looks like indecisiveness in price movements is a means for establishing lower highs and higher lows
> Weekly chart:
The formation of a bearish divergence.
Also as we get closer to the 0.618 fib level, we observe smaller candles, almost to a point of reversal.
Macd indicating close to the top, with histogram indicating a selling off phase is very near.
Looking at the RSI, we can see we have price increase after the 9000 range however a flattening of the RSI, indicating a divergence.
This could be the reason we might have a big correction not so far in the future, as everyone is expecting
> 4 HRLY chart:
Price staying above 100 EMA and as a squeeze takes place of recent between the 21, 55, 100 EMA.
It seems the 200 EMA on the 4 Hrly is the main support with an upward trajectory
RSI has plenty of room on the upside. No divergences at this point...looking good with each pullback a buying process kicks in.
Possibilities:
In the 4 Hrly, a break on the upside can complete the inverse H&S formation, now or later. A bounce off the 200 EMA will still give higher lows.
> Weekly Chart
> 4 Hrly Chart: Hypothesis of a forming a triangle, based on previous rangy formation
> 2 and 1 Hrly Chart
> BTC Dominance: Has dropped however its consolidation indicates another boost soon in the dominance space and it makes sense as to what we observed with the ALTs recent price increases.
> BTC sticking solidly to fib levels on the most part
> What looks like indecisiveness in price movements is a means for establishing lower highs and higher lows
> Weekly chart:
The formation of a bearish divergence.
Also as we get closer to the 0.618 fib level, we observe smaller candles, almost to a point of reversal.
Macd indicating close to the top, with histogram indicating a selling off phase is very near.
Looking at the RSI, we can see we have price increase after the 9000 range however a flattening of the RSI, indicating a divergence.
This could be the reason we might have a big correction not so far in the future, as everyone is expecting
> 4 HRLY chart:
Price staying above 100 EMA and as a squeeze takes place of recent between the 21, 55, 100 EMA.
It seems the 200 EMA on the 4 Hrly is the main support with an upward trajectory
RSI has plenty of room on the upside. No divergences at this point...looking good with each pullback a buying process kicks in.
Possibilities:
In the 4 Hrly, a break on the upside can complete the inverse H&S formation, now or later. A bounce off the 200 EMA will still give higher lows.
> Weekly Chart
> 4 Hrly Chart: Hypothesis of a forming a triangle, based on previous rangy formation
> 2 and 1 Hrly Chart
> BTC Dominance: Has dropped however its consolidation indicates another boost soon in the dominance space and it makes sense as to what we observed with the ALTs recent price increases.
ノート
If it breaks this pattern, then this hypothesis is not validノート
more specific... had to align the line with the rest of the grid to be more accurateノート
Note: One can also see a big risk with a H&S if the price drops to 11,100 range. That will push the price well into the 9 K range. Hence have your stop limits ready.\
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We are in the last line of defence. If this doesn't bounce back with an open and close above this green zone, then we are looking at 10,500 bounce, which is roughly the 200 EMA on the 4 HRLY. We might seen 2 bounces but eventually the 9750 range could be likely. But we must see if we see a hidden bullish divergence at this point. Give it time. ノート
Hidden bullish divergence on the 2 hrly and even in the 4 hrly. Lets see how far this can be taken...If it closes back into the triangle pattern, then we can potentially resume the bullish pattern.ノート
We are back in the pattern however we need to see it go and touch the upper end resistance to confirm.ノート
2 obstacles to pass. 21 EMA in the 2 Hrly and the 55% RSI in the 2 HRLY. if it breaks these decisively, it will give a clear sign (candle requires open and close above the 21 EMA).ノート
Just looking at the daily chart, it shows that we are right at the edge of a trend change. If the price doesn't rally here, then I see revisit to the 8K range.Key indicators:
Pitchfork is a great tool to indicate trend change. We are in the relm of the 150 to 200 which is telling us we are over extended in the bull trend and its likely we will have a trend change in the near future.
NVT is another indicator, traditionally it shows a trend change as well. If we don't get a bounce off the 148 and slide lower, it means we will have a large drop in price as well. These 2 things are key to going long.
Interesting how the previous all time high in 2018 has a similar pattern to what we have now, that is the top.
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Planning ahead.If this level doesn't hold, within the ascending triangle, the small one and the larger picture one, then I will use this chart for the next bounce area, the 4/1 line using the fib fan tool. Its been accurate in terms of resistance and support.
ノート
Looming pattern to support the 4/1 fib line bounce.ノート
Possible scenario in play...for scalping手動でトレードを終了しました
The bounce of 10K has happened but its so bearish, that 10700 was the highest it went. 8400 is to me the target, back where the parabolic run started. Hence why its very important to watch and place your entry based on observation than just shear TA. I had orders placed at 9800 but based on this, I will cancel them and be much more cautious.ノート
It looks like H&S in play, on the 2 HLRY>ノート
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Overall view... or expectation, 40% correction possible.
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