This volatility period lasts until around October 20th

2023年10月1日

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(BTCUSDT chart)

It's a back and forth volatility week as of October 1-8.

(1M charts)

The key is whether the price can be maintained by rising above 28465.36.

If the price stays above the MS-Signal indicator and the MS-Signal indicator switches to a bullish sign, the likelihood of an uptrend increases.


(1W chart)

The key is whether volatility occurs, falling below the 21258.0-23174.39 range or rising above 29241.72-30767.38.

These moves have significant implications for this week of volatility.


(1D chart)



The key issue during this volatility period is whether there is a movement outside the box range of 25131.48-28142.85.

If it fails to rise above 28142.85, it is important to be able to maintain the price above the M-Signal indicator section of the 1W chart and 1M chart.


Even if it rises above 28142.85, you must check whether it receives support or resistance around 28797.1.


This period of volatility is likely to last until October 21st.


If the price remains above the rising trend line (1) until October 21st, it is likely to lead to further rises.

Additionally, a new HA-High indicator on the 1D chart is expected to be created.

If you touch the HA-High indicator, it is important to have support.

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- The big picture

The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.

This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.

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** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.

** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA

** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.

** This chart was created using my know-how.

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2023年10月2日

ノート

(BTCUSDT chart)

You can check whether the price is maintained above the section consisting of the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.

And, whether it can rise above 28465.36 and, if possible, above 28797.1.

Even if it falls, it is expected to maintain an upward trend if the price remains above the rising trend line (1).

2023年10月2日

ノート

On August 29th, there was an attempt to rise and break above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.

After that, it finally broke upward on October 1st.

Therefore, the current section forms an important support and resistance section.

If you ignore these support and resistance areas and only check the resistance areas, you may miss a good opportunity, so you must check the support and resistance areas together and create a trading strategy.

This is because I believe that the current trend is likely to become a very important turning point in the future.

2023年10月3日

ノート

(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

A trend line can be considered a lagging indicator because it is usually formed after the direction has been determined.

However, once a trend line is created, I think many people use it because it faithfully performs its role until it deviates from the trend line.

However, when drawing a trend line, the standard used to draw it varies depending on the person using it, so it is important to know the person's intention.


The way I draw trend lines is by using the StochRSI indicator located in the secondary indicator.

In other words, a high trend line is drawn connecting the peaks that enter the overbought zone and bend and fall.

However, rather than connecting the high points, the openings of the falling candles are connected.

This method is used because by connecting in this way, you can find the time to buy when the price breaks above the trend line and shows support.


Enter the oversold section of the StochRSI indicator and connect the curved vertices to create a low trend line.

At this time, the bottom section is confirmed by connecting the low points of the price candles.


When creating a trend line like this, there are differences in the way you draw it depending on your investment style or what you want to know, so it is impossible to say what is right or wrong.


Also, in my case, I draw trend lines using the StochRSI indicator, so the trend lines become more reliable.

Whether or not you can trust and use the trend line you drew when you start trading is an important issue because it can have a huge impact on your psychological state.


A new high trend line has been created on the BTCUSDT chart.

Accordingly, we can see that an upward channel has been formed.

Therefore, the movement is expected to follow the ascending channel until it breaks out of this ascending channel.

However, the most important thing right now is whether it can be supported and rise near the section comprised of the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.

If it receives support and rises like this, it is expected to rise further, so I think it is highly likely that it will rise to around 29850.45.


Otherwise, even if it falls, if it does not break out of the rising channel, it is expected to maintain an upward trend.

Accordingly, you need to check whether the price is rising along the trend line near the rising trend line (1).

2023年10月5日

ノート

(1M chart)

This is an indicator expressed as the median value of K and D of the Stochastic RSI (StochRSI) indicator.

Currently, the StochRSI indicator is in a flat state as it is located near the 50 point.

There may be differences of opinion on how to define the range of steady state, but in my case, I consider the 30-70 range to be the flat range.

However, since it has fallen below 50, downward pressure can be seen to be strengthening.

I think that maintaining the price in this situation is due to a decrease in trading volume or a will to defend the price.

Therefore, if the StochRSI indicator shows the same movement as it does now when it enters the oversold zone while remaining flat, I think there is a high possibility that a big uptrend will begin when it leaves the oversold zone.


However, it is important to check whether you are receiving support or resistance from the support and resistance areas at the current price position.

The current support and resistance point is 28465.36, so the key is whether it can rise above this point.

Therefore, you need to check whether the StochRSI indicator can rise above 28465.36 when it enters the oversold zone or when it leaves or rises above 50.


(1W chart)

It is showing an upward trend that differs from the direction of the StochRSI indicator on the 1M chart.

Therefore, we need to keep the price above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and see if it can rise above 29241.72.

If the StochRSI indicator shows an upward trend but the price fails to rise and shows resistance, caution is required as a large decline may occur when the price enters and leaves the overbought zone or when it falls below 50.


Since the StochRSI indicator on the 1M chart and the StochRSI indicator on the 1W chart show different directions, it can be said that they are in an area that is difficult to interpret.

Accordingly, it would be a good idea to check the movement of the StochRSI indicator on the 1M chart or 1W chart when it enters the overbought or oversold zone.


(1D chart)

All indicators or tools utilized in charts are basically based on 1D charts.

Accordingly, when interpreting secondary indicators, I think it is better to interpret them as secondary indicators on a 1D chart.

Currently, the StochRSI indicator has moved out of the overbought zone and entered a flat state.

In these conditions, prices are on the rise.

When this happens, you will most likely see a divergence.

However, it is not very useful in terms of response because we cannot know when the divergence will start.

On the other hand, it can be used as good data in terms of analysis.


Since we are traders, we believe it is better to seek a response based on trends rather than seeking a response based on divergence.

Accordingly, it is recommended to use the StochRSI indicator to draw a trend line on the chart and seek a countermeasure.

I explained how to draw a trend line in a previous Ideas update.

To put it briefly again,
1. Draw a high trend line by connecting the vertices of the overbought section.
(At this time, it is drawn based on the opening price of the falling candle.
If there is no downward candle at the vertex, it is drawn based on the opening (open) of the latest downward candle.)

2. Draw a low trend line by connecting the vertices of the oversold section.
(At this time, the low points of the candles are connected.)

By looking at the trend lines created by these connections, you determine the trend line and use the correlation with support and resistance points to create a trading strategy.


Since the StochRSI indicator is currently showing a steady decline, the price must rise above a certain level for the StochRSI indicator to turn upward.

However, since the StochRSI indicator can be considered a lagging indicator, the transition period usually occurs when a new candle is created.

(If the price rises sharply, it may appear immediately.)

In the current situation, that is, when the StochRSI indicator is falling and the price is rising, if you buy according to the rising price, you may incur a large loss as soon as you buy, so you need to be especially careful.

However, in this situation, if support and resistance points are nearby and support is confirmed, then buying is possible.

However, since such cases are rare, it is better to wait without buying.


It is not a good idea to trade relying on secondary indicators.

However, it is good to refer to it according to the situation and use it to create a trading strategy.


Currently, the important support zone for BTC is the zone comprised of the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.

Therefore, if it shows support around this range and the StochRSI indicator shows an upward trend, it is expected to lead to attempts to rise above the 28142.85-28797.1 range.

If not, a sharp drop may occur, so caution is required.


The trend line created by connecting the vertices of the StochRSI indicator is lagging.

Therefore, it is not recommended to trade with this lagging indicator.

However, it is a good enough indicator to see trends.

Therefore, from a trader's perspective, we recommend using it to look at trends rather than look at divergences.



I think it was explained vaguely.

Here's the key:

1. It is recommended not to look at divergence as a StochRSI indicator, but to use it as a trend line.

2. When the StochRSI indicator enters the overbought or oversold zone, you can refer to the timing of buying or selling depending on whether you receive support or resistance at the support and resistance points.

2023年10月5日

ノート

(BTCUSDT chart)

Except for those who engage in day trading, this can be said to be the fluctuation range that allows trading based on the current movement.

We're still doing the same thing, so please refer to the previous idea section.

The important support section is still the section comprised of the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.


If it looks like the current movement for a few more days, I expect it to touch the MS-Signal indicator.

At that time, it is necessary to check whether volatility that deviates from the rising channel occurs.

2023年10月6日

ノート

You need to check whether the size of the candle decreases to its previous size. If not, the period of profit realization and day trading is expected to continue.