Potential playout of the 2022 BTC Bottom

2022年11月13日

This is a potential play out of the BTC 2022 market bottom after the FTX collapse. There are two scenarios as always,

The option to rebound up:
The BTC has reached the potential bottom at 15kk USD zone and it may retest it or form an Adam and EVA type of a reversal pattern. This option assumes also a play out of a book-made Wyckoff accumulation phase, after a successful retest of the 17-19k zone. This option aligns with the FIBO level.

The economic scenario looks promising for the next quarter, when it comes to the stock market. Having seen "positive" market feedback from US market (and this is the one that the cryptocurrency is following) with YoY inflation (decreasing more than anticipated), but increasing unemployment and all the flash news information about some massive company lay-offs of stuff (Meta, Former Facebook 11000 e.g.). The DXY index also seems to have a peaked and is due the correction. The market currently prices in economic slow down, but is focused mainly of the interest rate hikes. Current 4.5 or maybe 4.75 are already priced in according to my analysis and pre-released information from FOMC (distribution of votes of members according to their average interest rates have averaged at around 4.5, from 3.1-5.2). Hence the market already knows what interest rates are and sees a potential start of a downtrend for the inflation and potential economic slow down both leading to a dovish action from FED and pivot. On top of that we hear a positive news from Ukraine that makes big steps day by day in reclaiming the land, while Russian forces retreat. This is not yet priced in in the market in my opinion and a potential settlement would turn expectations of many investors into bullish.

Already at levels of 19-21 K as much as 22% Bitcoins have change the hands, id, est: weaker players of the market capitulated and sold it to smart money or other retail investors. This is gigantic number and simplifies that this is a decisive point for many investors, and interesting buy point for stronger market players. Clearly FTX was a little unexpected black swan of 2022 (gosh, a second one).


The option below:
The market is currently extremally fearful due to the recent FTX collapse and even more spicy news coming out as the days pass. The chance that there are "more bodies" in the wardrobe is high. We know now what FTX was doing, How Alameda research contributed in the collapse how FTX was overleveraged and it gives away its collateral of FTT tokens that are artificially pumped. Now the bigger picture emerges and we start seeing strange connections between the CEO of FTX SBF and Gary Gensler Head of SEC. A Co-CEO of Alameda research is a daughter of the Head of economic department at MIT, whom Gary Gensler used to report to as he was previously teaching at MIT. Yesterday a FTX hack on both FTX and FTX US doesn't look good either, as some speculation on the more experienced professionals point out toward the potential insider job. It is impossible to predict what will come out after this but we may see this to be a trigger point with respect to regulations. If another crypto service collapses and/or stablecoin problem will come out, the market may enter into a panic sell and we will see lower lows. If not the FTX disaster we would be quite likely seeing now much higher prices on the cryptocurrency market.

The potential buy in zones are shown on the screen as well as take profit levels until the 30k region.

At this point I want to give all the condolences to Customers of FTX, Voyager, BlockFi and other companies that got affected by this reckless, and quite likely a criminal (lets see what comes out) behaviour of SBF and Alameda research. I feel sorry for you to suffer such a loss and hope, please remember this is only money and life and people around you are much more important!