Over the last few weeks I had a more bearish lean; the technicals deteriorated quickly and macro news wasn't bullish at all. As a cherry on top, we had the banking failures as last week which made the outlook even more bearish.
As mentioned in my previous longer-term BTC analysis, BTC was ranging and nothing of not would happen whilst in this range.
As an extra, I added the 200-week SMA (yellow line) to the chart. The combination of the 200-week SMA and the August'22 high caused the strong rejection late February'23.
As seen on the chart, we have currently broken out through BOTH massive resistances. This makes a longer-term trend change, as well as the bottom being in, even more likely.
Next stop is the blue area, which is an important resistance area from all the way back to the summer of 2021.
The macro outlook is still not great. Inflation risk is still here, and defaulting banks make everything even worse. Still, Bitcoin could be perceived (and marketed) as a solution to said defaults. The chart simply looks bullish.
What do you think? Is 30k reasonable? Are the lows in? Share your thoughts 🙏
ノート
Currently falling back below the summer'22 highs. Might just be a retest, we'll know more in the near future.