Logarithm 1 week. The key is the formation of a large symmetrical triangle (perhaps it will reformat into an ascending triangle).
Perhaps, as in the last cycle, after its formation there will be a false breakout with a -40% (03 2020) extra long position being taken out before the real trend reversal. Whether it will happen again this time or not is another question. Just don't rule out such a situation. The levels are accurate. I am more inclined to believe that even if something like this happens (not necessarily), the formation will not be messed up on a large time frame on a linear price chart like last time. That is, there will be a big squeeze of "snot" without price fixing.
This idea to watch is a projection with a more detailed explication of the level zones of the past idea. Published below.
Formation of a big triangle and before the trend reversal super takeout (using the world situation with corono virus) of BTC longs by squeezing by -40%
Price at the edge of a triangle. Crypto media launches “black PR” in the manner of bitcoin soon 500$. Exchange bots on liquid exchanges stop tipping trading volume (interest in bitcoin)—as a result, "the glass is drying up”. Real supply/demand picture without incentives. Fear. Spoofing pressure down (illusion of a big seller that wasn't there). Panic selling “dusts” the majority. Price falls to the downside.
This takeout is -40% after a triangle formed and everyone was expecting a super bullish trend. Then depression in the market, expectations of a new XXX bottom by the majority, intimidation of crypto media. Which naturally didn't happen (where to go down after 1 week -40% dump?). Everything happened for obvious reasons on the contrary, trend reversal and price growth more than +1000%
You might find it useful to look at everything on a larger scale. The entire BTC primary trend and bitcoin cycles. Nothing extraordinary is happening so far and is unlikely to happen. Price is moving in the main long-term channel area along dynamic support.
Note also the non-mainstream potential trend lines (dynamic support/resistance). They are placed extremely accurately, not on a line chart (it is chosen just to illustrate the trend price movement). It is also quite possible that you will be interested in time zones (similarly extremely accurate as possible).
Psychology. Manipulations.
Someone will say that the previous stories of banal logical debunking are not repeated in the future. I am of the opposite opinion, I see constantly the same "hackneyed" manipulations on the stock and crypto market on a more localized scale. I don't rule out the same "song" being repeated globally. Why invent something new, if the old and simple, as before, has a great effectiveness in achieving the goals.
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Medium urgently, pay attention to this descending channel of the secondary trend (part of a large formation).
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It is clearer and clearer how important this reversal zone is and a little lower (dynamic trend support) in case of breakage now.
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For great visualization and clarity, I added leap years (pre-pump, pre-distribution), this applies to all markets, not only the "young" cryptocurrency market... That is, after it, just the price is in the distribution (selling) zone, which is identical to the price highs of the secondary trend.
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Triangle and Halving BTC 9 07 2016 (-40% after bitcoin halving within trend limits) Exiting the triangle and moving into the "participation" phase.
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Triangle and Halving BTC 11 05 20220 (-62% before bitcoin halving in the triangle area from its resistance) Exiting the triangle and entering the "participation" phase - bull cycle 2021
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Triangle and Halving BTC 7 04 2024 (floating date of a few days). Moving into the "participation" phase. Shall we go with the 2016 or 2020 option?