Bitcoin update. More bullish perspective.
Bitcoin came down! Now that it looks more like it will reach new lows (than yesterday) I want to share a bullish perspective.
This is what I have been calling the 'coconut long'. It's where you get a horizontal value area, followed by a spike low, followed by a horizontal value higher than the previous hva. Price has a tendency to dip down closer to the spike low before heading upward for an extended bullish run. The objective is to buy what the other guys are selling. This is a well documented reversal formation. I did not invent it, but to the uneducated I will take credit. The advantage of this formation is that it's a very early predicter of trend changes allowing you to capture long runs early on. The Achilles heal is that it requires you to be a bottom picker. Because trends are more likely to continue than reverse, this is a risky strategy.
The thing to consider is what happens if the reversal formation doesn't come true? For the reversal formation to be broken price needs to make a new low. Never tell a market it can't go any higher, and never tell a market it can't go any lower. It could very easily continue to create new lows. Trends are what they are until they aren't. Never before.
Again, I am painting two very opposing pictures here. For one to come true, the other must be proven false. That's how it works. Other areas of life are much less binary, but this is the brutal nature of trading, and the sooner you can adjust to it the better off you'll be. It's something I'm still figuring out myself, but I can tell you if you aren't prepared to play for keeps then you aren't prepared enough.
This is what I have been calling the 'coconut long'. It's where you get a horizontal value area, followed by a spike low, followed by a horizontal value higher than the previous hva. Price has a tendency to dip down closer to the spike low before heading upward for an extended bullish run. The objective is to buy what the other guys are selling. This is a well documented reversal formation. I did not invent it, but to the uneducated I will take credit. The advantage of this formation is that it's a very early predicter of trend changes allowing you to capture long runs early on. The Achilles heal is that it requires you to be a bottom picker. Because trends are more likely to continue than reverse, this is a risky strategy.
The thing to consider is what happens if the reversal formation doesn't come true? For the reversal formation to be broken price needs to make a new low. Never tell a market it can't go any higher, and never tell a market it can't go any lower. It could very easily continue to create new lows. Trends are what they are until they aren't. Never before.
Again, I am painting two very opposing pictures here. For one to come true, the other must be proven false. That's how it works. Other areas of life are much less binary, but this is the brutal nature of trading, and the sooner you can adjust to it the better off you'll be. It's something I'm still figuring out myself, but I can tell you if you aren't prepared to play for keeps then you aren't prepared enough.
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