Let's Assume We Are In An Uptrend & The Dip is In
アップデート済
Now that everyone turned bullish, i wanted to analyse the possibility of an uptrend.
Let's start;
We have seen a higher high (HH) on June 29th at $36.600 following a higher low (HL) which are bullish signs, but notice how the HH felt $650 short from the top of this so called uptrend! It should have made a high at least at $37.253 which was the close of May.
It didn't and that's weakness. Maybe what we were looking at was an upthrust after distribution (UTAD)?
Now, price has just touched $35.750, the old weekly high and pulled back, we should see a jump towards 40k if this uptrend is real.
That's a 5k candle.
Bitcoin is know for it's unpredictability, it certainly can do this jump but i would like to see that candle first before i enter a trade. Because if this is just a nother trap, then we are looking at a Last Point of Supply (LPSY) in wyckoff distribution theory which ends up in a markdown like the one we had back in May 8-10. Look how we made HH's and LH's until the huge drop and notice the weakness.
Speaking of wyckoff, i'm seeing lot's of uneducated comments and analysis on this, even from the famous social media gurus.
When you ask them, they would reply; "I'm not a wyckoff guy" LOL :)
One should - at least- know that there are 4 schematics in Wyckoff Theory not 1:
1- Wyckoff Accumulation
2- Wyckoff Re-Accumulation
3- Wyckoff Distribution
4- Wyckoff Re-Distribution
Everybody is referring to Wyckoff Accumulation and how it's on track, however re-distribution schematics is almost identical until phase C. That's why validation of the schematics is very important.
These weaknesses we have seen until now does not validate Accumulation and it's a signal for re-distribution unless we see that candle at 40k's.
So, is it worth to take the risk now? No.
Let's start;
We have seen a higher high (HH) on June 29th at $36.600 following a higher low (HL) which are bullish signs, but notice how the HH felt $650 short from the top of this so called uptrend! It should have made a high at least at $37.253 which was the close of May.
It didn't and that's weakness. Maybe what we were looking at was an upthrust after distribution (UTAD)?
Now, price has just touched $35.750, the old weekly high and pulled back, we should see a jump towards 40k if this uptrend is real.
That's a 5k candle.
Bitcoin is know for it's unpredictability, it certainly can do this jump but i would like to see that candle first before i enter a trade. Because if this is just a nother trap, then we are looking at a Last Point of Supply (LPSY) in wyckoff distribution theory which ends up in a markdown like the one we had back in May 8-10. Look how we made HH's and LH's until the huge drop and notice the weakness.
Speaking of wyckoff, i'm seeing lot's of uneducated comments and analysis on this, even from the famous social media gurus.
When you ask them, they would reply; "I'm not a wyckoff guy" LOL :)
One should - at least- know that there are 4 schematics in Wyckoff Theory not 1:
1- Wyckoff Accumulation
2- Wyckoff Re-Accumulation
3- Wyckoff Distribution
4- Wyckoff Re-Distribution
Everybody is referring to Wyckoff Accumulation and how it's on track, however re-distribution schematics is almost identical until phase C. That's why validation of the schematics is very important.
These weaknesses we have seen until now does not validate Accumulation and it's a signal for re-distribution unless we see that candle at 40k's.
So, is it worth to take the risk now? No.
ノート
Who's selling, who's buying. 
ノート
Are we going to 80k? 
ノート
$18.76 Billion Worth of Bitcoins Were Dumped On Retail Investors!
ノート
Let's zoom out and look at the big picture. 
ノート
I sold my car and i'm not buying Bitcoin 
ノート
Looks like 16k is playing out 
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