Coinbase goes to hit $1500

2021年4月14日

IPO investing idea

Coinbase, Inc. is an American cryptocurrency exchange platform that operates remote-first without an official physical headquarters.

The reference price is $250, I suppose the price will rise much higher at 1 day and later. The market cap at $250 per share is 65bln.

Why?

Let's check some fundamentals.

In 1Q2021 Coinbase reported the next estimated results:

trading volume — 335bln volume
sales — 1.8bln
income — 760mln

Also let's check all the market volume data:

Volume MA30 in 2018: minimum was at 10bln per day, maximum -- 40bln per day
Volume MA90 at 1APR21 was 300bln per day
Maximum volume MA30 in 2021 was 360bln per day
Volume MA90 at 1JAN21 was 150bln per day
On 01.01.2020 volume MA365 was at 50
On 01.01.2021 volume MA365 was at 100

So, we have 4 scenarios of valuation

1) Pessimistic — the crypto hype will end in APR2021

If the hype ends, average volume will fall to 100bln per day at the end of 2021 (like in 2018 from 40bln to 10bln). And will be the same in 2022 and later.
So, yearly sales will be at 1.8bln, yearly net income — 760mln.

Using SPY P/E multiplier (42), we have market cap at 750mln*42 = 32bln, share price at $125.
Using TSLA P/S multiplier (25), we have market cap at 1.8bnl*25 = 45bln, share price at $170.

2) Current market — the market condition will be stable

On 01.01.2022 volume MA365 can be at 200 (like x2 from 2020 to 2021)

It means:

sales — 1.8bln*4*200/360 = 4bln
income — 760mln*4/1.8= 1.7bln

Using SPY P/E multiplier (42), we have market cap at 1.7bln*42 = 70bln, share price at $270 — almost as a reference price.
Using TSLA P/S multiplier (25), we have market cap at 4bnl*25 = 120bln, share price at $385.

3) Optimistic — the crypto hype will continue

Trading volume bill be 400bln per day

sales — 8bln
income — 3.4bln

Using SPY P/E multiplier (42), we have market cap at 3.4bln*42 = 143bln, share price at $550
Using TSLA P/S multiplier (25), we have market cap at 8bnl*25 = 200bln, share price at $770.

4) TOTHEMOON scenario

trading volume will twice every quarter in 2021.

We have 300+600+900+1200/4 = 750bln per day

sales — 8bln*750/400 = 15
income — 6.4bln

Using SPY P/E multiplier (42), we have market cap at 6.4bln*42 = 270bln, share price at $1000
Using TSLA P/S multiplier (25), we have market cap at 15bnl*25 = 375bln, share price at $1500.

So, a pessimistic scenario says it is better to wait for $125 and invest there.

In optimistic scenario says it is better to send MOO today, and set 3 targets:

650
1000
1500

So do I :)

Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust.
You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.

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2021年4月15日

ノート

HOLD!

Facebook fell from $45 to $20 at 1st quarter, now its worth is $300, more than x6. Comparable IPO by the scale.

So COIN moves also can be with some fluctuation.