EVERYONE SAYS ITS GOING DOWN. I SAY V SHAPE RECOVERY

2020年4月16日

Here are the facts that I think people tend to overlook or underestimate:

1. The stock market was created as an instrument for the rich to get richer. It's a debt instrument.
2. The past few dips have recovered tremendously fast. Looking back at any point in time before 2015 won't help. Technology and trading algorithms have taken over. Things become priced in very fast. We've seen this.
3. Fed has basically stabilized market with unlimited QE and 0 interest rates
4. Lots of cash on the side (Smart money is looking for value/growth stocks)
5. Market Psychology: Everyone sees the same rising wedge and predicts break down. I'll go against the grain.
6. This is NOT a depression. Comparing it to a depression is wrong.
7. At this point, the worst of coronavirus fears are over. Market is about 6-9 months ahead of current economic news.
8. Cash is trash
9. Vaccine news is positive. Go with MRNA (Highest potential of being the one)
10. BIG PROBLEMS = MORE WEALTH SEPARATION BETWEEN RICH AND POOR (It is the sad truth)
11. As number of cases flatten and begin downtrend, more resources will become available long term. Masks will be 100% necessary and will help reduce spread of corona
12. Second outbreak might happen but by then, governments and people know what to do. (Yes, this is a bit optimistic but we live and we learn)


My predictions:
1. We retest 200 DMA within 2 weeks, bounce down then trend up.
2. V-Shape Recovery. in 4-5 months we will be at 29,000 dow again.
3. Smart Money will overlook negative earnings on most tech stocks and buy-in due to future outlook. Semiconductors will remain strong.
4. Long TSLA , NFLX , AMZN , AMD , NVDA , MSFT
5. Vaccine Stock? Moderna will win.
6. Economy opens up fully around mid/late June.

2020年5月8日

ノート

I expected a stronger move towards the 200ma but so far so good.