Sell in May, walk away.
Yield curve short term long term inverted yesterday. Or 2 days ago.
The spread is at its lowest since 2007. And the last 50 years it has always been followed shortly afterwards by a recession.
For those that do not know, interests bonds pay are constant, their price changes (just like a stock). So yield is invertly correlated to bond demand.
When investors do not trust the economy in the short term they avoid short term bonds and buy long term ones. Prices go up, yields go down.
Here are some arguments against:
Most of the arguments are the same they used during the dot com bubble "never ending increase in production".
I agree with the central bank acting irrationally. But at that point the best they can do is try to pump the price once indices get back to late december 2018 levels.
We are so extended past the gdp, good luck with that:
Anyway not going to repeat what I said in my previous DJI ideas about this.
If the FED forces the market to go up they will just make things worse.
I want to look at previous bear trends / markets to see how to run this winner:
Conclusion ==> HOLD
S&P target 2000
DJI target 18000
DAX target 7500-8000 (back to 2008 levels gl lowering interest rates)
Bonus: Bitcoin target 900-1800 (Also got a short to HOLD hopefully from the top ~8800)
It probably will not go down in a straight line. HOLD. If it is a loser fine, but what if it is winner? The goal is to HOLD.
Yield curve short term long term inverted yesterday. Or 2 days ago.
The spread is at its lowest since 2007. And the last 50 years it has always been followed shortly afterwards by a recession.
For those that do not know, interests bonds pay are constant, their price changes (just like a stock). So yield is invertly correlated to bond demand.
When investors do not trust the economy in the short term they avoid short term bonds and buy long term ones. Prices go up, yields go down.
Here are some arguments against:
Most of the arguments are the same they used during the dot com bubble "never ending increase in production".
I agree with the central bank acting irrationally. But at that point the best they can do is try to pump the price once indices get back to late december 2018 levels.
We are so extended past the gdp, good luck with that:
Anyway not going to repeat what I said in my previous DJI ideas about this.
If the FED forces the market to go up they will just make things worse.
I want to look at previous bear trends / markets to see how to run this winner:
Conclusion ==> HOLD
S&P target 2000
DJI target 18000
DAX target 7500-8000 (back to 2008 levels gl lowering interest rates)
Bonus: Bitcoin target 900-1800 (Also got a short to HOLD hopefully from the top ~8800)
It probably will not go down in a straight line. HOLD. If it is a loser fine, but what if it is winner? The goal is to HOLD.
コメント:
S&P futures exploding down.
MA200 getting further and further.
"Last time they said"
"The last 7 times we went below the MA200 we ended up above the next day"
"Last time they said" is the most idiotic argument there is.
Told you so. This time MA200 did not hold and it is likely we keep going down. Rekt.
MA200 getting further and further.
"Last time they said"
"The last 7 times we went below the MA200 we ended up above the next day"
"Last time they said" is the most idiotic argument there is.
Told you so. This time MA200 did not hold and it is likely we keep going down. Rekt.
コメント:
Apple is now selling pieces of metal "pro stand" or some crap they call them for - you might need to sit and take a breath for this - $1,000. Not 1 dot 000, ONE F THOUSAND DOLLARS.
It is physically mathematically logically impossible we are not at the top!
No we are even beyond the top.
When the top companies identifies that IDIOTS (I mean it) are willing to pay that much for a piece of metal... You just know.
First it was phones, super expensive phones, "luxury", this was pretty bad.
But now they went further. A piece of metal, literally.
I do not want to hear anyone argue with me "uh but you don't understand this and this reason mean that super stand is worth it uuuh muh logic" NO.
DUMB money always finds reason to justify their awful decision.
With the Dot Com bubble it was "a new paradigm totally new virtual thing therefore infinite growth is possible".
With idiotcoin it was "it is a new paradigm the old math & economic models do not work you just don't understand"
If you think of any reason where this price makes sense, this is what you should do:
- Pick a gun
- Make sure it is loaded
- Put it in your mouth
- Remove the safety
- Pull the trigger
(Disclaimer for the lawyers: haha I am just joking of course dw I do not advice anyone doing this)
THE TOP IS LIKELY IN AND THE CRASH WILL BE TREMENDOUS!
MORONS, CRETINS, ARE GOING TO GET DESTROYED!
Do not count on me to post too many entries or targets for indices or even crypto.
Really focussed on a dozen currencies & a handful of commodities, got my hands full.
I'll post rants about the stock market and idiotcoin from time to time. Often probably as I have been doing...
THE CRASH WILL BE BRUTAL. It won't go down at once probably, just down and down and down and down never ending.
Oh and idiotcoin is going to ZERO. The clueless clowns that lucked out are in for a nasty surprise.
And don't be surprised when invincible number super hype Apple slowly fades away.
I do not trade the stock market that much, but I will invest when it collapses, in the few companies that survive.
10,000 points for the Dow Jones is still too expensive.
1,000 points for the S&P is still too expensive.
This will be the biggest collapse we ever experience or our parents or our children.
The bull market started with the industrial revolution got to its peak and people are going to learn hard that ressources are not infinite and money does not grow on tree - even if they were infinite.
Complete absurdity. Enjoy your multi decade recession.
It is physically mathematically logically impossible we are not at the top!
No we are even beyond the top.
When the top companies identifies that IDIOTS (I mean it) are willing to pay that much for a piece of metal... You just know.
First it was phones, super expensive phones, "luxury", this was pretty bad.
But now they went further. A piece of metal, literally.
I do not want to hear anyone argue with me "uh but you don't understand this and this reason mean that super stand is worth it uuuh muh logic" NO.
DUMB money always finds reason to justify their awful decision.
With the Dot Com bubble it was "a new paradigm totally new virtual thing therefore infinite growth is possible".
With idiotcoin it was "it is a new paradigm the old math & economic models do not work you just don't understand"
If you think of any reason where this price makes sense, this is what you should do:
- Pick a gun
- Make sure it is loaded
- Put it in your mouth
- Remove the safety
- Pull the trigger
(Disclaimer for the lawyers: haha I am just joking of course dw I do not advice anyone doing this)
THE TOP IS LIKELY IN AND THE CRASH WILL BE TREMENDOUS!
MORONS, CRETINS, ARE GOING TO GET DESTROYED!
Do not count on me to post too many entries or targets for indices or even crypto.
Really focussed on a dozen currencies & a handful of commodities, got my hands full.
I'll post rants about the stock market and idiotcoin from time to time. Often probably as I have been doing...
THE CRASH WILL BE BRUTAL. It won't go down at once probably, just down and down and down and down never ending.
Oh and idiotcoin is going to ZERO. The clueless clowns that lucked out are in for a nasty surprise.
And don't be surprised when invincible number super hype Apple slowly fades away.
I do not trade the stock market that much, but I will invest when it collapses, in the few companies that survive.
10,000 points for the Dow Jones is still too expensive.
1,000 points for the S&P is still too expensive.
This will be the biggest collapse we ever experience or our parents or our children.
The bull market started with the industrial revolution got to its peak and people are going to learn hard that ressources are not infinite and money does not grow on tree - even if they were infinite.
Complete absurdity. Enjoy your multi decade recession.
This time we have no trendline to make it look like we won't go down :(
HOLD (short ofc)