DXY Short

The Big Picture
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The Wave Structure
The Wave Structure that I am presenting here starts on 2001-07-06, exactly 17 years ago, at the high price of $121.02. It was a 5 waves down followed by a 3 waves corrective structure. After which, we have a 5 waves down followed by a W-X-Y.

I want to talk about the last wave structure which I labelled W-X-Y. It is not an easy count to make. If you had gone into the daily timeframe, there is a chance that you will have the entire structure count as an impulse 1-2-3-4-5 as shown as the blue wave counts below. But having that count posts a problem for us: the circled area in the main chart actually breached the low of our red wave (2).
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Thus the only valid and probable count we can have is that the last wave is an ending diagonal 3-3-3-3-3 where over-and-under extensions are acceptable variations without breaching Elliott Waves Rules. Take a look at the previous 4th wave (in green & purple) and you will see that the count is similar to how I have drawn the current W-X-Y wave.

2 more things:
1. Note that the last uptrend W-X-Y actually stops around the previous wave 4 and this is a textbook example for where a correction will stop.
2. On the weekly timeframe, we have candlestick reversal formation: A Graveyard Doji.

A Short Bias
To be honest, I have a short bias for USD. A very strong one. Without which I would have used the blue count above on the daily timeframe and missed the finer details available on the lower timeframe.
Candlestick AnalysisElliott WaveSupport and Resistance

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