米ドルインデックスショート
US Dollar Eyeing the 101.92 Low
With Friday’s one-sided decline, it was a disappointing week for the Dollar Index, down -0.6%.
Trend studies on the monthly timeframe show price action has been northbound since bottoming in 2008 at 70.70. Q4 (2022), as you can see, staged a noteworthy correction from 114.78 (from channel resistance), which remains active in 2023. Predictably, due to the fractal nature of the markets, this displayed a visible downtrend on the daily chart, which also remains active.
In previous writing, I communicated the following regarding the monthly scale (italics):
Should price action on the monthly timeframe extend the current retracement slide—obvious support is not seen until 99.67, a level complemented by two Fibonacci ratios (38.2% and 61.8%) at 98.72 and 98.95, respectively—this may pull the Relative Strength Index (RSI) under the 50.00 centreline to a nearby indicator trendline resistance-turned-support drawn from the high of 82.87. It is worth remembering that the RSI tends to establish support around the 40.00-50.00 area in trending environments; consequently, many use this zone as a temporary oversold base to locate positive divergences.
Across the page on the daily timeframe, downside gained speed on Friday and tore through the 50-day simple moving average (currently 102.92). This—coupled with the aptly termed Death Cross (50-day simple moving average crossing below the 200-day simple moving average [104.65]) gracing our chart at the beginning of the year—implies sellers are in the driving seat. Additional USD underperformance could see the currency confront 101.92 (22 June low), with subsequent selling pressure paving the way towards familiar demand from 100.27-100.77. Also swinging the technical pendulum in favour of further selling this week is the daily chart’s RSI finding acceptance beneath the 50.00 centreline, informing traders/investors that average losses exceed average gains (in other words, negative momentum).
Considering the above-noted points, chart studies favour USD sellers at least until 101.92, particularly if the buck remains beneath the 50-day SMA. Rupturing 101.92 could also open the door for medium-term breakout selling in the direction of daily demand at 100.27-100.77.
Trend studies on the monthly timeframe show price action has been northbound since bottoming in 2008 at 70.70. Q4 (2022), as you can see, staged a noteworthy correction from 114.78 (from channel resistance), which remains active in 2023. Predictably, due to the fractal nature of the markets, this displayed a visible downtrend on the daily chart, which also remains active.
In previous writing, I communicated the following regarding the monthly scale (italics):
Should price action on the monthly timeframe extend the current retracement slide—obvious support is not seen until 99.67, a level complemented by two Fibonacci ratios (38.2% and 61.8%) at 98.72 and 98.95, respectively—this may pull the Relative Strength Index (RSI) under the 50.00 centreline to a nearby indicator trendline resistance-turned-support drawn from the high of 82.87. It is worth remembering that the RSI tends to establish support around the 40.00-50.00 area in trending environments; consequently, many use this zone as a temporary oversold base to locate positive divergences.
Across the page on the daily timeframe, downside gained speed on Friday and tore through the 50-day simple moving average (currently 102.92). This—coupled with the aptly termed Death Cross (50-day simple moving average crossing below the 200-day simple moving average [104.65]) gracing our chart at the beginning of the year—implies sellers are in the driving seat. Additional USD underperformance could see the currency confront 101.92 (22 June low), with subsequent selling pressure paving the way towards familiar demand from 100.27-100.77. Also swinging the technical pendulum in favour of further selling this week is the daily chart’s RSI finding acceptance beneath the 50.00 centreline, informing traders/investors that average losses exceed average gains (in other words, negative momentum).
Considering the above-noted points, chart studies favour USD sellers at least until 101.92, particularly if the buck remains beneath the 50-day SMA. Rupturing 101.92 could also open the door for medium-term breakout selling in the direction of daily demand at 100.27-100.77.
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