There’s a clear lead–lag. NESTE (white) and VERBIO (green) have tended to make the big turns 3–6 months before EUA. They sold off earlier and harder in 2023–24 while EUA stayed in a big contracting wedge; now NESTE is ripping and VERBIO is basing while EUA is pressing the upper wedge.
What that could mean is that equities may be discounting improving 2025–26 fundamentals (better renewable diesel/SAF margins, mandate tailwinds, industrial pickup). If the prior pattern holds, EUA has an upward bias and could follow with a delayed move — i.e., a topside break from the wedge rather than another fade.
What that could mean is that equities may be discounting improving 2025–26 fundamentals (better renewable diesel/SAF margins, mandate tailwinds, industrial pickup). If the prior pattern holds, EUA has an upward bias and could follow with a delayed move — i.e., a topside break from the wedge rather than another fade.
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