ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (May30-Jun2)
アップデート済
Here is a look at my weekly level. Price is already gapping higher on NVDA news following the long weekend. Very euphoric price action so technicals are less reliable so be mindful that move can get over done in either direction in this scenario.
SUMMARY
• ES posted a 0.50% gain last week after trading in a range of 107 points.
• ES sold off early in the week but recovered to close the week at the Dec 13th high again.
• A move above the Dec 13th high put the HTF 618 Fib RT (4300) level in play
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLK, XLY & XLC. Weakest was XLU, XLP, XLV & XLB
• Despite the strong rally only the XLK, XLY & XLC closed the week green.
• Currently rally very concentrated in the MEGA cap tech stocks. NVDA current market leader.
• Only 40% of stock are above their 200 SMAs.
• A debt ceiling deal has been made but must be voted on.
• European markets and Japan are currently making new highs.
• Earnings this week include reports from AI, CRWD, LULU, AVGO, M, OKTA, BILI, DG
• Market already pricing in rate cuts.
• Biggest econ data this week is Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Market closed
Tuesday US CB consumer confidence & Fed’s Barkin Speaks
Wednesday Can GDP, US JOLTS, Fed’s Collins, Bowman, Harker & Jefferson speak
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US Manufacturing PMI, US Construction Spending, EIA Crude & Fed’s Harker speaks
Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls & US Unemployment rate
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday US Markets closed
Tuesday HPE, HPQ
Wednesday AAP, AI, CHWY, CRM, CRWD, OKTA, PSTG, VEEV
Thursday ASAN, AVGO, BILI, DELL, DG, HRL, LULU, M, ZS, VMW
Friday Nothing Notable
BULLISH NOTES
ES continues to hold the 4200 level
EMAs & SMAs are stacked
Bbreak above Dec 13th high
Aggressive sectors outperforming defensive sectors
Potentially positive reaction to Non-Farm Payrolls
European markets are making new highs
Debt ceiling resolution has been made in principle
Rate pause/cut hopes
Potential panic buying & Short covering on break of Dec 13th high
ES trading in a giant ascending triangle
BEARISH NOTES
Stoch 5.1 is Overbought
Potential rejection at the Feb 2nd high
Bullish momentum hinges on small group of MEGA cap stocks esp. NVDA
Potential negative reaction to Non-Farm Payrolls
Service & wage inflation is persistent
Potential shock event (more bank failures)
Debt ceiling agreement fails to pass congress
Fed Heads start talking rate hikes again
Potential spike in yields & USD
Only 40% of stock are above their 200 SMAs
SUMMARY
• ES posted a 0.50% gain last week after trading in a range of 107 points.
• ES sold off early in the week but recovered to close the week at the Dec 13th high again.
• A move above the Dec 13th high put the HTF 618 Fib RT (4300) level in play
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLK, XLY & XLC. Weakest was XLU, XLP, XLV & XLB
• Despite the strong rally only the XLK, XLY & XLC closed the week green.
• Currently rally very concentrated in the MEGA cap tech stocks. NVDA current market leader.
• Only 40% of stock are above their 200 SMAs.
• A debt ceiling deal has been made but must be voted on.
• European markets and Japan are currently making new highs.
• Earnings this week include reports from AI, CRWD, LULU, AVGO, M, OKTA, BILI, DG
• Market already pricing in rate cuts.
• Biggest econ data this week is Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Market closed
Tuesday US CB consumer confidence & Fed’s Barkin Speaks
Wednesday Can GDP, US JOLTS, Fed’s Collins, Bowman, Harker & Jefferson speak
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US Manufacturing PMI, US Construction Spending, EIA Crude & Fed’s Harker speaks
Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls & US Unemployment rate
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday US Markets closed
Tuesday HPE, HPQ
Wednesday AAP, AI, CHWY, CRM, CRWD, OKTA, PSTG, VEEV
Thursday ASAN, AVGO, BILI, DELL, DG, HRL, LULU, M, ZS, VMW
Friday Nothing Notable
BULLISH NOTES
ES continues to hold the 4200 level
EMAs & SMAs are stacked
Bbreak above Dec 13th high
Aggressive sectors outperforming defensive sectors
Potentially positive reaction to Non-Farm Payrolls
European markets are making new highs
Debt ceiling resolution has been made in principle
Rate pause/cut hopes
Potential panic buying & Short covering on break of Dec 13th high
ES trading in a giant ascending triangle
BEARISH NOTES
Stoch 5.1 is Overbought
Potential rejection at the Feb 2nd high
Bullish momentum hinges on small group of MEGA cap stocks esp. NVDA
Potential negative reaction to Non-Farm Payrolls
Service & wage inflation is persistent
Potential shock event (more bank failures)
Debt ceiling agreement fails to pass congress
Fed Heads start talking rate hikes again
Potential spike in yields & USD
Only 40% of stock are above their 200 SMAs
コメント
ES_F Dec 13th high continues to be key resistance. Below it I will be looking for a move back down to the bottom of the green box. Above it look for a move to the bottom of the red box. It would be very bullish if price recovers and breaks the Dec 13th high. コメント
ES_F So price recovered the Dec 13th high and making a very strong move. The very bullish scenario is playing out. First target to the upside is the bottom of the red box. 
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